Improving USGS Input into HAZUS

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Improving USGS Input into HAZUS Other Loss
Estimation Tools

• Nicolas Luco Research Structural Engineer
• Erdem Karaca Mendenhall Postdoctoral Researcher
• USGS Geologic Hazards Team, Golden, CO

USGS/MAEC Workshop in Memphis, TN October 11,
2006
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Presentation Topics

• Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
• USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
• Probabilistic Building Damage Risk Maps
• Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Provisions in
  Building Codes
• Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for
  Response (PAGER) D. Wald P. Earle
• An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative Seismic
  Risk Assessment of Woodframe Houses (ResRisk-WH)
• Open-Source Risk Modeling Software ("OpenRisk")
  K. Porter C. Scawthorn

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• Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology
• Earthquake, flood, wind
• Default databases
• Building inventory, bridge inventory,
• Possible ground motion inputs
• Scenario earthquakes, USGS hazard curves,
  ShakeMaps
• Losses
• Repair costs, casualties, direct indirect
  economic losses

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• HAZUS - Pros
• Integrated earthquake loss estimation methodology
• Default databases
• Losses for a scenario earthquakes or
  ground-shaking maps
• Various loss measures (repair costs, number of
  casualties, )
• HAZUS - Cons
• Not fully probabilistic (expected scenario/annual
  losses only)
• Computational efficiency (GIS overhead)
• Flexibility (not open-source)

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Presentation Topics

• Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
• USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
• Probabilistic Building Damage Risk Maps
• Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Provisions in
  Building Codes
• Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for
  Response (PAGER) D. Wald P. Earle
• An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative Seismic
  Risk Assessment of Woodframe Houses (ResRisk-WH)
• Open-Source Risk Modeling Software ("OpenRisk")
  K. Porter C. Scawthorn

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1) Improving USGS Input into HAZUS

• FY06 FY07 OMB Recommendation
• Improve earthquake risk estimates by integrating
  the USGS Geologic Hazards Program seismic
  monitoring with FEMA hazard loss estimation
  capabilities.
• FY06 Milestones (USGS Response)
• Establish USGS-FEMA workgroup to develop joint
  plan for collaboration
• Combine USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps with
  HAZUS methodology to generate probabilistic loss
  estimates
• Produce prototype HAZUS-formatted ShakeMaps for
  destructive earthquake scenarios to facilitate
  generating loss estimates for the scenarios

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1) Improving USGS Input into HAZUS

• USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
• Integration of USGS Seismic Monitoring with HAZUS
  for Earthquake Response
• USGS Ground Motion Plug-In for HAZUS
• Coordination of USGS/FEMA Earthquake Damage
  Research (HAZUS-R)
• Joint Earthquake Risk Publications, Maps, and
  Associated Products
• Example Regional probabilistic loss
  distributions (i.e., beyond expected losses)

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Regional Probabilistic Loss Distributions Goal

• Exceedance probability curves for total losses to
  a portfolio/region.
• Combination of ground motion hazard, building
  exposure, and building fragilities.

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Probabilistic Seismic Loss Analysis (PSLA)

• PSHA-analogous methodology described in Wesson,
  Perkins, and Luco (2006) "Direct Calculation of
  the Probability Distribution for Earthquake
  Losses to a Portfolio"
• Applications to date
• San Francisco Bay Area Residential Woodframe
  Losses (Luco et al for 2006 AGU Fall Meeting,
  manuscript in preparation)
• Shelby County Memphis Metro Bridges (Karaca
  Luco for 5th National Seismic Conference on
  Bridges Highways)
• Next applications will couple USGS hazard
  information with HAZUS exposure data and
  "revamped" HAZUS fragilities (described later in
  presentation)

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Methodology Motivation

• For each individual building of the exposure, the
  output of PSHA (i.e., a hazard curve for the
  site) can be coupled with the building fragility
  to arrive at its loss curve
• If the losses for individual buildings were
  independent, a combined loss curve could be
  obtained via a simple convolution, e.g.,
• But the losses for individual buildings are not
  independent, since their sites are shaken by the
  same earthquake events.
• Bottom Line We cant simply start from the
  output of PSHA.

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Methodology Extending PSHA

• Recall that Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
  (PSHA) conditions on and sums over all
  potential earthquake events
• For a given "event" (defined below), the losses
  for individual buildings can be considered
  independent, and hence, e.g.,
• Each event is defined here by
• (i) M magnitude of earthquake
• (ii) R location of earthquake corresponding
  distances to sites
• (iii) einter measure of average ground motion
  relative to other
• similar earthquake events (i.e., of
  sinters)

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Methodology PSLA Summary

• In summary, an exceedance curve for the sum of
  losses to all buildings in the exposure can be
  obtained via the following steps
• For each potential event, combine the fragility
  and site hazard for each building to obtain
  individual loss curves, i.e.,
• Convolve the individual conditional loss curves
  to obtain a combined loss curve for each event,
  e.g.,
• Sum (with event weights) the loss curves for each
  event, e.g.,

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1) Input on USGS Role in Risk Field

• FY05 USGS Venture Capital Fund Project
• Proposed National Seismic Risk Maps
• M. Petersen and N. Luco met with
• FM Global
• AIR Worldwide Corporation
• RMS (Risk Management Solutions)
• ABS Consulting (formerly EQE)
• CGS (California Geological Survey)
• CEA (California Earthquake Authority)
• FEMA NIBS (with D. Applegate)

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1) Input on USGS Role in Risk Field

• Stakeholders encouraged
• Research into vulnerabilities and risk analysis,
  in addition to hazard
• Results that they could compare with and/or
  utilize
• Transparent risk calculations for sensitivity
  studies
• Contribution to exposure data (e.g., by USGS
  Geography)
• Evaluations of available vulnerabilities
• Analyses for public buildings (e.g., homes)

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1) Input on USGS Role in Risk Field

• Stakeholders discouraged
• Development of risk modeling software
• Risk results that become de facto standard
  (i.e., do be clear about uncertainties/shortcoming
  s of results)
• Competition
• Stakeholders willing to cooperate, if not
  collaborate (similar to response to open-source
  risk-modeling software)

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Presentation Topics

• Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
• USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
• Probabilistic Building Damage Risk Maps
• Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Provisions in
  Building Codes
• Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for
  Response (PAGER) D. Wald P. Earle
• An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative Seismic
  Risk Assessment of Woodframe Houses (ResRisk-WH)
• Open-Source Risk Modeling Software ("OpenRisk")
  K. Porter C. Scawthorn

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Building Risk Maps

• Building risk maps show the mean annual
  frequencies (MAFs) of exceeding different
  structural damage states (or losses) for each of
  the 36 building types in HAZUS designed to 4
  different code levels

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Fragility Curve
Building Risk Maps
P(DS ds Sa)
P(DS ds Sa)
Spectral acceleration, PGA, MMI, Inelastic
spectral displacement, Inter-story drift ratio,

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Example Building Risk Maps
Low Rise Steel Moment Frame Building, Low Code
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Example Building Risk Maps
Slight Damage
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Example Building Risk Maps
Extensive Damage
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Slight Damage
Example Building Risk Maps
Low-Code
High-Code
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Building Damage Maps

• Building damage maps show the probabilities of
  different structural damage states (or losses)
  for each of the 36 building types in HAZUS
  designed to 4 different code levels

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Example Building Damage Maps Northridge Eq.
Low Rise Steel Moment Frame Building, Low Code
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Example Building Damage Maps
Light Frame Wood Building, Low Code
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Presentation Topics

• Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
• USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
• Probabilistic Building Damage Risk Maps
• Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Provisions in
  Building Codes
• Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for
  Response (PAGER) D. Wald P. Earle
• An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative Seismic
  Risk Assessment of Woodframe Houses (ResRisk-WH)
• Open-Source Risk Modeling Software ("OpenRisk")
  K. Porter C. Scawthorn

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USGS Mendenhall Postdoctoral Project

• Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Provisions
  in Building Codes
• In particular, reduction of losses around New
  Madrid Seismic Zone via adoption of seismic
  design maps in International Building Code (IBC)
• Involves update of HAZUS fragilities to reflect
  IBC, and to depend on design ground motion
• Also involves revamping of HAZUS fragilities for
  use in Probabilistic Seismic Loss Analysis
  (Wesson, Perkins Luco, 2006)

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Approach SBC gt IBC
Hazard
Inventory
Fragility/Vulnerability
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HAZUS Building Fragilities
Capacity Curve
Capacity Spectrum Method
Damage State Definition
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Revamping HAZUS Fragilities
Capacity Curve
Damage State Definition
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Revamping HAZUS Fragilities

• Revamped HAZUS fragilities are
• Based on nonlinear dynamic structural analysis
  rather than Capacity Spectrum Method.
• Independent of ground motion variability, which
  is taken care of in hazard computation.
• Fully probabilistic with variability in ground
  motion and building response properly accounted
  for.

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Revamping HAZUS Fragilities

• Revamped HAZUS fragilities are (continued)
• In terms of ground motion parameters for which
  hazard is typically computed, e.g., Sa(0.3s).
• Available for a large number of structures (all
  HAZUS building types and code levels).
• Can be easily combined with seismic hazard
  information to
• Evaluate seismic risk, e.g. seismic risk maps.
• Estimate losses from a scenario event, e.g.
  seismic damage maps.
• Evaluate building design/mitigation options, e.g.
  SBC vs IBC design.

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Approach SBC gt IBC (Current/Future Work)
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Presentation Topics

• Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
• USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
• Probabilistic Building Damage Risk Maps
• Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Provisions in
  Building Codes
• Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for
  Response (PAGER) D. Wald P. Earle
• An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative Seismic
  Risk Assessment of Woodframe Houses (ResRisk-WH)
• Open-Source Risk Modeling Software ("OpenRisk")
  K. Porter C. Scawthorn

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Relevant Other USGS Studies/Products PAGER

• Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for
  Response
• is an automated alarm system being developed to
  rapidly and accurately assess the severity of
  damage caused by an earthquake and to provide
  emergency relief organizations, government
  agencies, and the media with an estimate of the
  societal impact from the potential catastrophe.
• will distribute alarms via pager, mobile phone,
  and e-mail that will include a concise estimate
  of the earthquakes impact.
• will also report the earthquake location,
  magnitude, and depth, an estimate of the number
  of people exposed to varying levels of shaking, a
  description of the regions vulnerability, and a
  measure of confidence in the systems impact
  assessment.
• information will be available within minutes of
  the determination of the earthquakes location and
  magnitude

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Relevant Other USGS Studies/Products PAGER

• Pager Process

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Presentation Topics

• Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
• USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
• Probabilistic Building Damage Risk Maps
• Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Provisions in
  Building Codes
• Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for
  Response (PAGER) D. Wald P. Earle
• An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative Seismic
  Risk Assessment of Woodframe Houses (ResRisk-WH)
• Open-Source Risk Modeling Software ("OpenRisk")
  K. Porter C. Scawthorn

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4) Plan for Residential Risk Web Tool

• Ultimate goal An interactive web tool for
  quantitative seismic risk assessment of woodframe
  houses (ResRiskWH)
• Phase I plan for FY07 (w/ N. Field K. Porter)
• Java module Standalone OpenSHA application
• Input Zip code
• Vulnerability relation (dropdown menu)
• Output Loss exceedance probability curve
• ( including probability of exceeding
• deductible, expected loss )

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Review of IBC Seismic Design Maps
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CUREE Small House, Typical Quality CUREE Small
House, Braced Cripple Wall CUREE Large House,
Typical Quality . . . Wesson et al. Single-Family
Home, ShakeMap PGA
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4) Plan for Residential Risk Web Tool

• Phase II Plan for Future Work
• Supplement available vulnerability relations to
  adequately represent exposure in Northridge 94
• Validate/calibrate vulnerability relations using
  data from Northridge 94 earthquake
• Phase III Plan for Future Work
• Derive vulnerability relation on-the-fly based
  on user-inputted floor plans
• Would result in user-assembled database of
  vulnerability relations (not tied to an address)

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Presentation Topics

• Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
• USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
• Probabilistic Building Damage Risk Maps
• Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Provisions in
  Building Codes
• Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for
  Response (PAGER) D. Wald P. Earle
• An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative Seismic
  Risk Assessment of Woodframe Houses (ResRisk-WH)
• Open-Source Risk Modeling Software ("OpenRisk")
  K. Porter C. Scawthorn

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5) "OpenRisk"

• Like HAZUS, multi-hazard freeware
• Unlike HAZUS, an open-source code base
• R. Murnane (BBSR-RPI) held a workshop in March of
  2005 (www.open-risk.org)
• K. Porter C. Scawthorn (SPA) have
• been funded by SCEC to draft initial plan
• obtained programming support from Russia
• A proposal to further "OpenRisk" is pending with
  USGS NEHRP External Grants Program
• USGS development of ResRisk-WH is contributing to
  OpenRisk code base (Java)

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Presentation Topics

• Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
• USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
• Probabilistic Building Damage Risk Maps
• Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Provisions in
  Building Codes
• Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake for
  Response (PAGER) D. Wald P. Earle
• An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative Seismic
  Risk Assessment of Woodframe Houses (ResRisk-WH)
• Open-Source Risk Modeling Software ("OpenRisk")
  K. Porter C. Scawthorn

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(No Transcript)
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• HAZUS Example
• Expected Annual Loss (EAL) using USGS PSHMs
• Not a true loss exceedance curve

Area under Curve EAL
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Example Earthquake Events GMs (Hazard)

• San Francisco Bay Region
• Characteristic and floating earthquake events
  from USGS Working Group 2002
• 4 attenuation relations for ground motions
• sinter based on Lee
• Anderson (BSSA, 2000)
• 3 different hazard programs used to compute
  median and dispersion of ground motion for each
  earthquake event and building site pair

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Example Buildings Sites (Exposure)

• Residential Woodframe Buildings Inventory from
  HAZUS
• Aggregated at census tract level
• Within each census tract, one site per NEHRP site
  classification

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Components of Risk/Loss Analysis

• HAZARD
• e.g., National Seismic Hazard Maps, ShakeMaps
• EXPOSURE
• e.g., HAZUS Inventory Data, USGS Geography
• FRAGILITY (or VULNERABILITY)
• e.g., HAZUS Fragilities, Wesson et al (2004)
• RESILIENCY
• e.g., Insurance, Cat. Bonds, Emergency Response