Rating Country Risk' A Romanian Perspective'

1
Rating Country Risk.A Romanian Perspective.

• Richard McGuire
• Senior Economist
• Dun Bradstreet UK

2

• What do we mean by country risk?

3
The DB Country Risk Modelfour categories

• POLITICAL
• MACROECONOMIC
• EXTERNAL
• COMMERCIAL

4
Risk indicators meaning
Each of the categories DB1 to DB6 is also divided
into quartiles from a to d.
5
Political Risk

• Current governing arrangement stable
• Pace not direction of reform in question

6
Macroeconomic Risk

• Further positive growth
• Reassuring fiscal developments
• medium-term expenditure pressures
• Disinflation

7
External Risk

• Narrowing of current account shortfall
• Comparatively limited FDI
• Relatively favourable debt profile

8
Commercial Risk

• Strengthening Banking Sector
• High credit risk
• Corruption
• Uncertain legal environment

9
Romania DB5aFurther progress necessary
10
East European Risk

• Hungary DB2d Croatia DB4d Belarus DB6d
• Slovenia DB2d Romania DB5a Bosnia Herz. DB6d
• Czech Rep. DB3b Kazakhstan DB5b Georgia DB6d
• Estonia DB3b Azerbaijan DB6a Serbia Mon. DB6d
• Poland DB3b Kyrgyz Rep. DB6c Tajikistan DB6d
• Latvia DB3d Macedonia DB6c Turkmenistan DB6d
• Lithuania DB3d Russian Fed. DB6c Uzbekistan DB6d
• Slovakia DB4a Ukraine DB6c
• Bulgaria DB4d Albania DB6a