Futures Studies

1
Futures Studies

• Applied Foresight for Change Management and
  Future Building
• Robert D. Stewart

2
Forecasting Technology

• Technology is increasing its rate of change.
• This makes it hard to predict the level of
  advancement we will reach at any given time in
  the future.

3
When do futurists think we will have

• A laser capable of incinerating someone
• A computer implanted into a bug that turns it
  into a remote controlled surveillance system
• Mind reading cameras

4
Today!

• A free-electron laser is capable of killing, even
  from space.
• Nano-computers have been implanted into dragonfly
  brains, giving motor control over to a remote
  device.
• Surveillance cameras have been built that scan
  facial expressions to discern malicious intent.

5
Exponential Rate of Change

• The rate of change is increasing so rapidly, most
  people are lost in the present, let alone the
  future.
• On the day of graduation a students education is
  already obsolete.
• Social institutions and businesses become
  obsolete just as quickly.

6
The Key is Change

• Current perception is static. That the education
  system, political system and businesses just
  exist fixed systems.
• Futurist thought sees things as constantly
  changing. What do you do less important than
  What are you changing into?
• The static world does not exist!

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Even the Unchangeable

• What is school changing into?
• What is democracy changing into?
• What is war changing into?
• What are you changing into?
• This is the key to the instant expert.
  Understanding what your specialty is changing
  into.

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Two Major Keys to Change

• Everything is in a state of change
• Change is accelerating

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Since Change is Already Happening

• We lose the If it aint broke, dont fix it
  approach.
• We are working with bodies already in motion.
• We can encourage and direct change into a
  desirable future.

10
From Change to Futures

• We move from the concept of one unwritten future
  to infinite existing futures.
• Futures are individually analyzed by visioning,
  interpretation and critique. Science fiction is
  currently the most powerful tool for this, but
  somehow not taken seriously.

11
A New Time Line

• Traditionally the time line is one single line
  stretching from the past to the future, passing
  through the present.
• Stewarts time line is scattered by the present,
  producing infinite lines into the future.
• The power of the present is in choices.
• See figure 1

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Stewarts Timeline

• Timeline that uses the present as the dividing
  point of one past into infinite futures.

13
The Fourth Dimension

• Long has time been the fourth dimension. The
  future is as limitless as the other three
  dimensions in our universe.
• Each future has a space in time. Futures that
  occupy a space close to each other are related.
• Unrelated futures can be perceived as distant
  from each other.
• See figure 2

14
Stewarts Futureverse

• Shows existing futures in a Future Space

15
Selecting a Desired Future

• Because all futures exist our ability to
  represent futures (currently imagination) is our
  limiting factor.
• Powerful opposites such as war and peace lie far
  from each other in Future Space
• Related futures may be very different in feel.
  For example, a desired future may be near to a
  very undesirable one, making certain decisions
  important ones.

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From Here to There

• A strand of the time line connects the present to
  every desired future.
• The present, including the pattern of changes and
  choices being made, creates a probable future.

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Probable and Related Futures

• The Future Course is the strand of timeline that
  connects the present to the probable future.
• Inconsistencies in decisions pull the Future
  Course in the direction of Related Futures.
• Every change in the pattern of decision making
  alters the probable future.

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Unlikely Futures

• Futures that are unrelated to the probable
  future.
• These futures require more changes in the pattern
  of decision making.
• They are unlikely given the probable future, not
  unlikely to be built.
• Unlikely futures sometimes require Time
  Stretching to occur.

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Time Stretching

• See figure 3
• Time stretching is possible after a desired
  future is selected.
• The years required to make that future into the
  present can be stretched or shortened by the
  speed of knowledge production, technological
  development and social progress.

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Time Stretching and Time Shrinking

• Demonstration of manipulating futures.

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Effects of Time Stretching

• By speeding up social progress, people act with
  greater efficiency and pattern changes take less
  time.
• It pulls certain futures closer to the present,
  while leaving other ones further, distancing
  certain related futures as a side-effect.
• By slowing down social progress, you reverse the
  effect and place a desired future further away
  from the present.

22
Simple and Complex Futures

• Complex futures are ones that require a great
  deal of knowledge, technology and social
  advancement to accomplish. (ie. Simultaneous
  World peace, healthy environment, prosperity)
• Simple futures appear all over the futureverse
  and can usually be considered footnotes. (ie. And
  Im an accountant)
• Simple futures are easily found along Future
  Courses and manipulated through time stretching.

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Key Points About Futures

• All futures already exist.
• We move from the present to the probable future
  by our pattern of change.
• We arrive at related futures due to
  inconsistencies.
• We can adjust the speed at which we reach desired
  futures.
• Simple futures are easily manipulated.

24
Beginning to Direct Change

• People have a threshold for change
• Alvin Tofflers Future Shock
• Use Backcasting to make changes small. Manage
  the Future Course.
• Use Future Mapping to mark major changes and
  milestones between the present and desired future.

25
Altering the Future Course

• Patterns of decision making must change to match
  the desired future.
• Example Corporations, politics, people begin to
  make decisions aligned with a culture of peace.
• This affects a great number of decisions made in
  everyday life.

26
Whole system change

• Humankind is a part of a whole-system, and is
  also a system in itself.
• Alterations will have ripple-effects in a
  whole-system.
• Alterations must also allow for a system to
  maintain necessary functions.

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Network!

• Any single persons power relies in the strength
  of their network.
• Systemic change relies on networks for feedback
  and direction.
• Building a desired future relies on experts in
  every necessary field.
• Networks are a system, require adaptation and
  using all resources in concert.

28
Finally

• Future building relies on
• Dedication to personal change and betterment.
• Willingness to sacrifice.
• Strong relationships.
• Leadership, teamwork and partnership.

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Applications for Education

• Relies on time shrinking, increasing technology,
  knowledge and social efficiency to manipulate a
  simple future.
• Patterns of change align with long-term vision
  and systemic integration rather than
  fragmentation.
• Future focused education produces experts
  networked with experts, allowing access to more
  general information than a general education
  does.
• Specific applications for any single area of
  expertise more likely to be answered by a focused
  expert than a generalist.

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Why It Works

• Students are at the crest of an educational
  revolution. They have the opportunity to become
  pre-eminent in fields that have not yet been
  studied. Students may also become experts in
  numerous fields, limited only by the same
  constraints that limit all futures Technology,
  Knowledge and Social Cohesion.
• Experts beget more experts. Once a student
  becomes expert level, they may easily produce
  more experts with which to study using the
  future-focused method. Knowledge production is
  self-perpetuating using a self-directed learning
  model with experts as guides rather than
  teachers.
• Students do not have to go to my school, they are
  not limited by an instructors capacity to teach,
  but merely their own desire and drive. Their area
  of interest can change at any time, and they will
  only get better at manipulating futures (simple
  and complex), building a base of knowledge and
  recognizing interdisciplinary connections. Best
  of all, it can fit parallel to formal education.

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It Is Part of a Bigger Picture

• The importance of this knowledge and social
  revolution is of the same scale as the
  technological revolution that has already begun.
  It is necessary and will happen.
• Most desirable futures require a social
  revolution of this magnitude to be achieved.
  Certainly control over selection requires it.
• Futures manipulation may be what saves humankind.

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What We Need To Do

• You have learned the very basics of Futures
  Studies, but there is much more.
• Futures Studies is extremely important, yet there
  is virtually no formal education in the field.
• People need to educate themselves in futures.
• Students need to seek out Futures Education,
  parents must do so for their children.
• We need to build an educated network with a
  strong future vision.
• Step 1 Go to www.futurescanada.ca and begin your
  futures education. Get involved, contribute, and
  use the network to facilitate your self-driven,
  specialized learning. The site is a free library
  of futures-related information, and designed to
  facilitate education at any age.