Federal Reserve Bank of New York

1
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

• Recommendation on the FFR November 2006

2
National RGDP Growth Rate
National Growth is Declining in this Quarter.
RGDP increased at an annual rate of 1.6 in the
3rd Quarter of 2006. It had increased by 2.6 in
the 2nd Quarter.
3
Growth Rates in RGDP By state 1997-2006
Real Gross State Product in New York and New
Jersey grew at 3.2 and 2.8 annual rates,
respectively, during the 2nd quarter of 2006
4
Unemployment-Region Specific
Unemployment-Region Specific

• In New York the unemployment rate has fallen to
  4.0, its lowest rate in the last few months
  (July, August and September) The rate there is
  lower then it is nationally.
• In New Jersey the unemployment rate hit 4.4. It
  was this low a year ago in 2005. It is right in
  line with the national unemployment rate.

5
Unemployment-National

• Nationally the unemployment rate has fallen over
  the month of October 2006 to 4.4.
• The rate of unemployment was the lowest that it
  has been in the recent months (July, August and
  September 2006).
• Declining productivity raises questions about
  inflationary pressures at the given unemployment
  rate.

6
National and Region Specific CPI
In the 3rd Quarter the CPI dropped dramatically
for the region and the United States as a whole.
7
NE Region CPI
The NE region is still experiencing higher prices
then the rest of the nation
8
Housing Starts

• Nationally Privately-owned housing starts in
  October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate
  of 1,486,000 units.
• A 14.6 decrease since September and is 27.4
  below the October 2005 rate of 2,046,000.