Diapositive 1

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Temporary Foreign Workers and Foreign Students as
Immigrants Context
Judith Hamel, Strategic Policy and
Priorities Citizenship and Immigration Canada
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• This document links the current labour market
  and demographic context with the potential
  benefits of having a better seamless process for
  transitioning between temporary and permanent
  status, a policy still under development.

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• Outline of the presentation
• The Labour Market Today
• The Labour Market Tomorrow
• The Policy Framework
• Policy Objectives -- of a seamless transition
  from temporary to permanent status

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TODAY

• Specific local skill shortages are becoming
  increasingly apparent
• 66 of employers reports having trouble hiring
  the skilled workers they need
• 49 report that skill shortages hamper their
  ability to meet demand (55 for Western Canada)
• Business, public sector and union leaders
  identify skilled worker shortages as their 2nd
  main concern, behind tax issues
• Overall, unemployment is at its lowest level in
  30 years and in Alberta, average hourly wages
  rose 7.4 last year.

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TODAY

• In an international study by Manpower Inc. Canada
  ranked 2nd in terms of worker shortages (at all
  skill levels)
• Top ten of occupations in demand
• 1. Sales Representatives
• 2. Customer Service Representatives/Customer
  Support
• 3. Engineers
• 4. Drivers
• 5. Mechanics
• 6. Labourers
• 7. Chefs/Cooks
• 8. Electricians
• 9. Skilled Trades
• 10. Nurses
• Not eligible under Federal Skilled Workers
  Program

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TODAY

• A specific example
• The energy sector
• Workforce is aging rapidly while there is an
  important employment boom
• Number of jobs has tripled over the last decade
• For the oil sands alone, the operations workforce
  is projected to more than double, from 40,000
  person-years in 2005 to over 100,000 person-years
  by 2010.
• Alberta is forecasting a 100,000 shortfall in its
  workforce over the next 10 years.

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TOMORROW

• Global population growth will be in developing /
  least developed countries
• Canadas share of world population is .5 and
  declining
• Will have significant impacts in terms of
• Pressure to migrate to more affluent West
• Security/health
• Challenges of meeting development goals
• Increased global competition for skilled workers
  
• Demographic decline in developed regions
• Emerging markets - India, China and Brazil
• Maturing economies will require workers with
  knowledge

2000 - 2050 WORLD Projected Population Increase
2005
2050
Developed Regions
1.2
1.2
Less-developed Regions
5.3
7.8
TOTAL
6.5
9.0
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TOMORROW

• Demographic factors are leading to an ageing
  population and slowing labour force growth
  immigration cant reverse these trends
• Sometime between 2011 and 2016, new Canadian
  school leavers entering the labour force will
  only be sufficient to off-set labour force
  requirements (means no natural labour force
  growth)
• Labour force growth, along with productivity
  gains, are key to a rising standard of living
• Thus, in the absence of significant stronger
  productivity growth, standard of living growth
  will slow without labour force expansion through
  immigration

IMMIGRATION CONTRIBUTES 120,000 per year
SCHOOL LEAVERS entering labour force (post-seconda
ry, college and high school graduates and
drop-outs)
In-flow
1984-1988
1994-1998
2005-2015
LABOUR FORCE
610,000
510,000
543,000
LEAVING EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM
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TOMORROW

• Canadas slowing population growth will create
  new economic challenges in the coming decades
• Immigration can help mitigate future growth
  challenges
• supporting Canadas economic prosperity as the
  number of Canadian entrants to the labour force
  declines
• adding to natural population growth
• immigration can help address future labour market
  shortages ensuring employer needs are addressed
  which would at the same time support better
  economic outcomes for the immigrants themselves.

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POLICY FRAMEWORK

• Under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act
  (IRPA) the principal objective corresponding to
  the Economic Classes of immigrants is
• to support the development of a strong and
  prosperous Canadian economy, in which the
  benefits of immigration are shared across all
  regions of Canada
• - Section 3(1)
• In moving forward to develop a policy framework
  we must address key challenges
• Expanding the benefits of immigration beyond
  Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver
• Better match selection mechanisms with labour
  market needs.

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1 EXPANDING THE BENEFITS
IN-FLOWS By Province
Settlement Patterns of Permanent Residents
Highly concentrated in MTV
ONTARIO
53.5
P E R C E N T A G E D I S T R I B U T I O N
16.5
3.0
QUEBEC
MANITOBA

• Not all regions are benefiting from immigration
• Jobs may go unfilled in some regions
• Immigration is concentrated in a few large urban
  centres 75 of immigrants settling in either
  Montreal, Toronto, or Vancouver (MTV)
• There are labour market and population needs
  across the country and growing interest among
  provinces, territories, and communities to use
  immigration to address these needs

0.8
0.4
SASKATCHEWAN
NEW BRUNSWICK
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
0.1
7.3
ALBERTA
2005 IN-FLOWS OF PERMANENT RESIDENTS
0.7
NOVA SCOTIA
0.1
BRITISH COLUMBIA
17.0
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
By Top Twelve Census Metropolitan Areas
YUKON 0.02 NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES 0.03 NUNAVUT 0.0
2.2
EDMONTON
14.1
0.7
QUÉBEC
4.2
CALGARY
VANCOUVER
MONTRÉAL
13.9
2.3
WINNIPEG
2.4
OTTAWA-GATINEAU
42.8
TORONTO
P E R C E N T A G E D I S T R I B U T I O N
1.7
HAMILTON
KITCHENER
0.6
1.2
0.8
WINDSOR
LONDON
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DRAFT MARCH 15/06
2 BETTER MATCH SELECTION WITH L.M. NEEDS
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CONCLUSION

• Easier transition from temporary to permanent
  status could have positive impacts on the
  immigration systems capacity to respond to
  labour market needs more quickly. Other policy
  options could also be developed (promotion and
  recruitment, new integration tools and changes to
  the selection mechanisms).
• But immigration should not be perceived as the
  silver bullet Also need
• investment to increase productivity,
• domestic training
• inclusion in the workforce of underrepresented
  groups