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Risk assessment based on interdependencies

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Public Private Partnership coordinator (23 branches, 800 experts) ... No assessment for MTB, just interdependencies = potential effect, criticality. Hannu Sivonen ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Risk assessment based on interdependencies


1
Risk assessment based on interdependencies
  • Helsinki, Finland
  • Hannu Sivonen, Senior Researcher
  • MANMADE Castellanza 28-29 June 2007

2
National Emergency Supply Agency (NESA)
  • Fund, independent of the state budget
  • Public Private Partnership coordinator (23
    branches, 800 experts)
  • Government defines objectives for security of
    supply
  • NESA finances security of supply when not
    provided by the market mechanism
  • Focus areas
  • Critical technical infrastructure
  • Food supply
  • Energy supply
  • Logistics
  • Critical medical substances and supplies
  • Defence related industries
  • NESA balance is 1000 million

3
Risk assessment based on interdependencies
  • A method for assessing the risk caused by
    interdependencies between technical
    infrastructures, basic services, and threats
  • Linear mathematical model similar to that used by
    Google
  • Simplifying assumptions
  • Complex interdependencies and accumulating
    effects and risks handled
  • Information system failures and weather
    conditions are major risks in Finland
  • Published in Finnish
  • Yhteiskunnan huoltovarmuuden kannalta keskeisten
    toimintojen riskiarviointi
  • http//www.huoltovarmuus.fi/julkaisut/esittely/?id
    72

4
Finnish government decision 305/2002
  • Technical infrastructures (14)
  • energy supply
  • communications
  • information systems
  • Basic services and supplies (29)
  • food supply
  • transport logistics
  • mass media
  • health care
  • financial services

5
Threats from outside the infrastructure and
services (17)
  • economic threats
  • threats to information systems
  • crisis in international logistics
  • weather phenomena
  • structural damage
  • strikes
  • environment and health threats
  • national security threats

6
Interdependencies
  • reasons
  • for failures

recurrent (ratio 1)
expected (ratio 0.1)
rare (ratio 0.01)
theoretical (ratio 0.001)
nonexistent
7
Input Interdependencies (sample)
8
Mean time between failures
9
Input Duration and mean time between failures
10
Output Relative risks pertinent to
inter-dependent infrastructures
11
Output Relative risks pertinent to outside
threats
12
Relative component risks in food logistics
) operator processing plant logistics
operator
13
The model applied to criticality of ICT functions
  • 72 functions, 6 scenarios (3x2)
  • Duration of failure
  • short term (hours)
  • medium term (days)
  • long term (months)
  • Dependency type
  • cause of failure to others
  • obstacle to recovery of others
  • No assessment for MTB, just interdependencies
    potential effect, criticality

14
Top ten critical functions from 6 scenarios
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