P1258827306COjKN

1
Figure 1. Emission Levels, Reference Case
Projections for 2010 and 2020, and Target Caps
for Electricity Generators
Thousand Tons per Year
Thousand Tons per Year
8,000
16,000
Nitrogen Oxides
Sulfur Dioxide
13090
6191
6,000
12,000
9700
4480
8950
4340
4,000
8,000
4,000
2,000
2240
1548
0
0
1997
2010
2020
Target
1997
2010
2020
Target
Million MetricTons Carbon Equivalent per Year
Tons per Year
800
60
Carbon Dioxide
691
Mercury
773
46
43
45
600
45
475
475
400
30
200
15
4.3
0
0
1990
2010
2020
Target
1999
2010
2020
Target
2
Figure 2. Electricity Prices With and Without
Emissions Limits, 1990-2020 (1999 cents per
kilowatthour)
10
Without Emissions Limits
With Emissions Limits
8
6
4
2
0
1990
1999
2005
2010
2015
2020
3
Figure 3. Electricity Sales With and Without
Emissions Limits, 1970-2020 (billion
kilowatthours)
5,000
Without Emissions Limits
With Emissions Limits
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
History
Projections
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
4
Figure 4. Projected Electricity Generation from
Coal, Natural Gas, and Renewable Fuels (Excluding
Cogenerators) With and Without Emissions Limits,
2010 and 2020 (billion kilowatthours)
3,000
Coal
Natural Gas
Renewables
2010
2020
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Without Emissions Limits
With Emissions Limits
Without Emissions Limits
With Emissions Limits
5
Figure 5. Sulfur Dioxide Allowance Price With
and Without Emissions Limits, 2005-2020 (1999
dollars per ton)
400
Without Emissions Limits
With Emissions Limits
200
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
6
Figure 6. Carbon Dioxide Allowance Price,
2005-2020 (1999 dollars per metric ton carbon
equivalent)
125
With Emissions Limits
100
75
50
25
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
7
Figure 7. Nitrogen Oxides Allowance
Price, 2005-2020 (1999 dollars per ton)
1,400
With Emissions Limits
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
8
Figure 8. Mercury Allowance Price,
2005-2020 (million 1999 dollars per ton)
600
With Emissions Limits
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
9
Figure 9. Impact of 2010 Allowance Prices on
Coal Plant Operating Costs (1999 cents per
kilowatthour)
4.0
Mercury
Carbon Dioxide
3.5
Sulfur Dioxide
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
Unscrubbed Coal Plant Without SCR
Scrubbed Coal Plant With SCR
10
Figure 10. Impacts of Emission Limits on
Cumulative Resource Costs for Electricity
Generation, 2001-2020 (billion 1999 dollars)
200
177
150
100
50
0
Change from Reference Case Without Emissions
Limits
11
Figure 11. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices With
and Without Emissions Limits, 1990-2020 (1999
dollars per thousand cubic feet)
4
Without Emissions Limits
With Emissions Limits
3
2
1
0
1990
1999
2005
2010
2015
2020
12
Figure 12. Coal Production With and Without
Emissions Limits, 1970-2020 (million short tons)
1,400
Without Emissions Limits
1,200
1,000
With Emissions Limits
800
600
400
200
History
Projections
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
13
Figure 13. Impacts of Emission Limits on
Delivered Energy Consumption in the Reference
Case, 2010 and 2020 (quadrillion Btu)
0.2
2010
2020
0.1
0.0
-0.1
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
-0.2
Transportation
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
14
Figure 14. Allowance Prices Based on Emission
Caps in the Smith/Voinovich/Brownback Analysis
2020 Allowance Prices
3,000
90,000
85,000
2,825
Nitrogen Oxides
75,000
2,500
Sulfur Dioxide
Mercury
2,000
60,000
1,737
Mercury in 1999 Dollars per Pound
Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrogen Oxides in 1999
Dollars per Ton
45,000
1,500
1,000
30,000
15,000
500
200
0
0
Reference
75 Percent
15
Figure 15. Changes in Cumulative Resource Costs
of Electricity Generation in the
Smith/Voinovich/Brownback Cases