Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future

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Demographic challenges some perspectives for the
future

• Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin
• OECD
• Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

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OECD/CERI Project on the Future of Higher
Education

• Trends analysis
• Demography
• Technology
• Globalisation
• Academic research
• Labour market
• Futures scenarios

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Outline

• Why does demography matter?
• What can we expect in terms of quantitative
  changes?
• What are the qualitative challenges?
• What will it take to address them?

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• Why does demography matter?

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• Quantitative changes and tertiary enrolments

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Evolution of the 18-24 population by 2025
(2005100)
Source United Nations, Population division
(revision 2006)
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Scenario 1 Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025
under current conditions (2005100)
Source OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1
Demography
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Scenario 2 Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025
under recent trends (2005100)
Source OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1
Demography
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Total expenditures for tertiary education
institutions as of GDP in 2005, and projected
difference by 2025 under scenario 2 (GDP points)
GDP set at 2 growth and educational costs per
head projected linearly according to 1995-2005
growth rate (constant prices)
Source OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1
Demography
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Tertiary educational attainment () of 25-64
population
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Tertiary educational attainment () of 25-44
population
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• Qualitative changes in tertiary enrolments

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Population estimates for the make-up of 18-25
year olds in the United States
Source US Censur Bureau
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Social inequity over time (fathers education)
Source Social Situation Observatory (except
Japan, Korea, and Australia)
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Growth in the number of foreign students
(2000-2006, 2000100)
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Share of tertiary degrees awarded to women
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Gender gap in tertiary educational attainment
(F-M) by age group
No gap in 2005 18 for youngest cohort if
strict projection gt10 ?
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• Addressing the quality access challenges

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On your memory stick

• Higher Education 2030
• Volume 1 Demography
• Forthcoming
• Volume 2 Technology
• Volume 3 Globalisation
• Volume 4 Scenarios

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Thank You

• Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin_at_oecd.org

www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures