www.nssl.noaa.gov/ciflow

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www.nssl.noaa.gov/ciflow
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The CI-FLOW project has been sought after for
implementation in coastal watersheds of South
Carolina, Texas, and Louisiana
CI-FLOW brings state-of-the science severe storm
monitoring and prediction techniques developed by
NOAAs National Severe Storms Laboratory and its
OU/National Weather Center Research Partners
to Collaborate With North Carolina Researchers
Within the Coastal Watersheds of the Tar-Pamlico
and Neuse River Basins
But why?
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CI-FLOW- Routine Water Quantity Forecasts
NWS Flood Only Forecast Points on Tar River
Mainstem
to the Sea
NWS Only Routine Forecast Point- Not on Tar River
Mainstem actually on Fishing Creek at Enfield NC
From The Summit
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CI-FLOW Demonstrating Capabilities for
Additional Water Quantity Information for Coastal
Watersheds (Forecasts 4 Times a Day For More
Locations in Coastal Watersheds)
Routine Forecast Point
Flood Only Forecast Point
USGS Gauges- No SERFC Forecast
Locations with 5 day water level forecasts
prepared by SERFC every day
Locations with 5 day water level forecasts
prepared by SERFC only when flood stage may be
reached
Current NOAA operational state for 5 day water
level forecast on routine daily basis
CI-FLOW Forecast Points Hourly Water Levels For
5 Days Generated 4 Times A Day (0, 6, 12, 18 UTC)
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CI-FLOW Is Demonstrating Capability For Routine
Water Level Forecasts In The Tidal Plain
NWS Routine Forecast Points for Tar-Pamlico and
Neuse Basins
USGS Gauge Locations In Tar-Pamlico and Neuse
Basin Tidal Plain
Many Additional Potential CI-FLOW Water Level
Forecast Locations However No Validation Due To
Lack Of Gauging Locations
NWS Flood Only Forecast Points for Tar-Pamlico
and Neuse Basins
Critical Need for Water Level Information In
Tidal Plain For
Hydrologic Hazard Decision Support
From the Onset of Evacuation Orders (Flooding of
Evacuation Routes)
Throughout the Regional Response and Recovery
Process (How Much Water, What Type (Fresh, Salt,
Brackish) and Duration of Inundation)
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Critical Need for Water Level Information In
Tidal Plain For
Hydrologic Hazard Decision Support
Population Trends and Housing Statistics
Dare County population has increased almost 5
times since 1970
Brunswick County (Wilmington, NC Area) accounts
for the largest number of seasonal housing
(16,376) followed by Carteret and Dare Counties
Over half of the housing units in Dare County are
seasonal
County 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 Population Change () 1970-2000 Population Density (2000) 2000 Total Housing Units 2000 Seasonal Housing Units
Beaufort 35,980 40,355 42,283 44,958 45,794 125 54 22,139 2,166
Hyde 5,571 5,873 5,411 5,826 5,521 105 10 3,302 855
Dare 6,995 13,377 22,746 29,967 33,518 428 78 26,671 13,445
Pamlico 9,467 10,398 11,372 12,934 12,814 137 38 6,781 946
Craven 62,554 71,043 81,613 91,436 91,599 146 129 38,150 514
Carteret 31,603 41,092 52,556 59,383 62,034 188 114 40,947 13,537
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Considerable lead time is currently required to
evacuate the outer banks and tidal plains. The
situation worsens as coastal populations grow by
2030.
Projections for 2030
By 2030, at the height of the tourist season, it
would take 46 hours to clear U.S. 158 and 31
hours to clear U.S. 64 through Columbia.
Number of evacuating vehicles for a Cat. 3
hurricane during high (95) occupancy
Location 2004 2030
N.C. 12 through Southern Shores 10,627 17,133
Wright Memorial Bridge off Outer Banks 36,875 58,183
US 158 at US 17 in Elizabeth City 14,541 22,749
US 64 from Manns Harbor to Columbia 20,599 32,389
With increasing coastal populations, evacuation
planning will require real-time high-resolution
integrated weather and water information in the
tidal zone to determine current and expected
conditions of evacuation routes and inland
shelters within vulnerable coastal watersheds
like the Tar-Pamlico and Neuse
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Research From The 1-2 Punch of Hurricanes Dennis
and Floyd Showed To Have Accurate Coastal Water
Level Simulations, There Must Be A Integrated
Modeling System Which Accounts for The Complex
Interaction Of Freshwater Flood Flows and Storm
Surge At the Shoreline and In Estuaries
Gather All Weather Water Observations and
Modeled Fields
Drive River and Ocean Models From These Products
An Ensemble of High-Resolution Inland Hydrologic
Models Will Provide Discharge To
Derive First-Tier Products
Ocean Hydrodynamic Models
Inland River Stage Forecasts at Multiple Points
Coastal Water Level Forecasts at Multiple Points

Eventually
Water Quality Forecasts- Inland and Coastal
Points
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Capturing the Antecedent and Early Storm
Conditions
Leverage NSSL Severe Storm Research To Capture A
3-D Picture of Individual Thunderstorms
Wakefield, VA NWS WFO
Newport/Morehead City, NC NWS WFO
Use Other NOAA Research and Operational Partners
QPE (NWS HPE, NESDIS, and RFC Stage 4) Which Use
Different Methods to Merge Radar, Satellite
Lightning, Gauge, and Atmospheric Sounding Data
Fields To Force Hydrologic Models To See Range of
River Response
First, Leverage NSSL Quantitative Precipitation
Estimates (QPE) To Map Gridded Multisensor
Estimates of Rainfall At A Temporal Resolution As
Frequent As 5 Minutes and A Spatial Resolution of
1 KM X 1 KM Into The Basin(s)
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CI-FLOW Has Provided A Research Opportunity For
the Development Teams Of Each QPE System (NSSL,
OHD, NESDIS, NWS SERFC) To Collaborate To
Identify Methods and Data Fields Which Produce
The Most Accurate Rainfall Estimates to Help NOAA
Increase The Accuracy Of Streamflow Simulations
CI-FLOW Case Studies Completed For Hurricane
Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Alberto (2006), and
4 Cold-Season Precipitation Events (Results Shown
Here) Provide A Critical Research Environment To
Collaborate In Order To Quantify The Uncertainty
Inherent In Automated Rainfall Estimates to
Develop Forecast Confidence Intervals For
Simulations Producing River Water Levels and
Crest Timing
River Model Discharge 27 cms Using HPE Compared
To 12 cms Using Stage 4 SERFC QPE and Crest
Timing Is Different
River Model Discharge 46 cms Using NMQ Compared
To 22 cms Using HPE and Crest Timing Is Different
TRVN7 USGS 02081500 Tar River LOUN7 USGS
02081747 Louisberg RNGN7 USGS 02082950
White Oak EFDN7 USGS 02083000 Enfield ROKN7
USGS 02082585 Rocky Mount SWIN7 USGS 02082770
Hilliardstown SIMN7 USGS 02084160 - Chicod
Creek
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CI-FLOW Coupled Model System Has Discharge From
River Models At One Single Hand Off Point
Landward of Head of Tides on Tar River and One on
Neuse To Serve As A Boundary Condition
CI-FLOW Research Will Couple Ocean Models to
Inland River Models Forced by High-Resolution
Precipitation Estimates and Numerical Weather
Models
To Generate Water Level Forecasts In The Tidal
Plain Which Account for Freshwater Flood Flows As
Shown In the Composite Hydrograph
Storm Surge Predicted By Ocean Models Pushes Salt
Water Plume Upstream
Secondary Fresh Water Storm Crest Predicted By
Inland River Models as Upland Tributaries Drain
and Ocean Models Track Receding Storm Surge
Water Level Primarily Due to Storm Surge
Fresh Water Storm Crest Predicted By Inland River
Models
Storm Surge Predicted By Ocean Models Pushes Salt
Water Plume Upstream
Water Level Primarily Due to Fresh Water Storm
Crest
Secondary Fresh Water Storm Crest Predicted By
Inland River Models as Upland Tributaries Drain
and Ocean Models Track Receding Storm Surge
Fresh Water Storm Crest Predicted By Inland River
Models At Star Forecast Pt
Water Level Primarily Due to Fresh Water Storm
Crest
L
L
L
Tar- Upstream Tarboro Neuse- Upstream of Kinston
L

• CI-FLOW Coupled River-Ocean Model Suite Provides
  Total Water Level Simulations (Water Levels) for
  coastline,coastal streams, tidal creeks, and
  bays-
• University of North Carolina- Chapel Hill and
  University of Oklahoma ADCIRC (In Progress)
• 2) North Carolina State Univ. Estuary? Lower
  River Modeling System (FY10)

• Hydrodynamic Ocean Models Provide Storm Surge
  Simulations (Water Levels) for coastline and for
  coastal streams, tidal creeks, and bays-
• University of North Carolina- Chapel Hill and
  University of Oklahoma ADCIRC (IOOS Funding)
• 2) North Carolina State University Estuary?Lower
  River Flood Modeling System

Storm Surge

• CI-FLOW River Model Suite Provides Streamflow
  Simulations for Streams and Mainstem of Tar-Pam
  and Neuse Rivers-
• NWS Hydrology Lab Research Distributed Model
  (HL-RDHM) and
• 2) Vflo Hydrologic Model

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CI-FLOW Connecting the Impacts of Freshwater
Flows To Salt Water Surges For The Tidal Plain
But How Will CIFLOW Show The Impacts? Lets Look
At Greenville For A Demonstration
Tar River Handoff Point- Above Tarboro
Neuse River Handoff Point- Above Kinston
Current Project Status- Near Real Time Operation
Demonstration
Current Project Status- Hindcast Testing
Streamflow Simulations of Hourly Discharge for
Hurricane Isabel and Tropical Storm Alberto Have
Been Completed For All USGS Gauges Sites Upstream
Of the Handoff Point In The Tar and Neuse Basins
Using Gridded NSSL QPE As Input To The NWS
HL-RDHM and OU Hydrologic Models
NWS HL-RDHM Will Generate An Hourly Time Series
Of Discharge Using NSSL QPE For Rainfall That
Has Fallen and NOAA Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center (HPC) QPF For The Rainfall
Forecast
OU and UNC-CH ADCIRC Research Teams Will Use
Holland Model To Generate Wind Fields Based on
NOAA National Hurricane Center Best Track and
Pick Up Discharge From Inland River Models TO
Generate Hourly Water Levels For The Tar and
Neuse River Sections Downstream Of The Handoff
Point To Produce Simulations For The Tidal Plain
and Coastline.
OU and UNC-CH ADCIRC Research Teams Are
Finalizing The Grid Mesh To Incorporate The Tar
and Neuse River Sections Downstream Of The
Handoff Point To Generate Water Level Simulations
For The Tidal Plain and Coastline.
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Prototype of River Simulation Page
OU Simulation With Flood Inundation Maps and
Impacts
Actual Flood Inundation Maps and Impacts
Additional Information
HL-RDHM Simulation With Flood Inundation Maps and
Impacts
USGS-CIFLOW Validation
Precipitation- QPE
Data Downloads
Tar River at Greenville- USGS Gauge 02084000
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Interactive Linked Hydrograph, Inundation Maps,
Flood Impacts Where Available
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5 Day Greenville Forecast Produced By ADCIRC (OU
UNC-CH Ocean Model) Forced With HL-RDHM (NSSL,
OU, and OHD River Model) Discharge At Handoff
Point Above Tarboro
Goal Is to Have Two ADCIRC Simulations
1) ADCIRC Using The HL-RDHM Discharge Produced By
SERFC Stage IV (QPE) and HPC QPF
2) ADCIRC Using The HL-RDHM Discharge From NSSL
QPE and a Numerical Weather Model Ensemble Mean
QPF
Critical Impact/Decision Points For Location
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Visit the CI-FLOW Web Page for Project Status
Updates
www.nssl.noaa.gov/ciflow
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The CI-FLOW project is establishing the
foundation for the development and implementation
of a Coastal Estuary River Information System
(CERIS) A NOAA Southeast and Caribbean Region
Team (SECART) / Integrated Water Resource
Services (IWRS) Priority Area Task Team (PATT)
Collaboration
Additional Information Suzanne.Van.Cooten_at_noaa.g
ov
www.nssl.noaa.gov/ciflow