Assessing climate change impacts and policy responses

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Assessing climate change impacts and policy
responses

• Don Gunasekera
• Chief Economist

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Format

• Policy responses
• Emissions trading scheme
• Recent ABARE CSIRO work
• GIAM model
• Way forward

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Climate change challenges

• Higher average and peak temperatures
• Decreased flows reduced water quality
• Changes in farm productivity
• Increased incidence of pests diseases
• Ocean acidification

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Key policy responses
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Policy response considerations

• Impacts of climate change
• Managing transitional impacts
• Balancing the costs and benefits of policy
  responses
• Ability to refine/improve policy responses

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Global Integrated Assessment Model GIAM
ABARECSIRO initiative
Economic module GTEM
Policy response
Climate module MK3L, changes in climate
Emissions pathway
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Developing a reference case with impacts
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Key drivers of emissions global population
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Key drivers of emissions economic growth
average annual growth, 2001-2100
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Key drivers of emissions global energy
consumption
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Long run global emissions
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Atmospheric concentration reference case
without impacts
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Increase in average surface temperature,
reference case without impactsrelative to 2000
levels
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Increase in average surface temperature,
reference case without impactsrelative to 2000
levels
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Economic growth pathway world
-11.4
-1.4
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Economic growth pathway Australia
-5
-0.6
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Way forward

• Need more work on climate change impacts
  (benefits and damages)
• Need to develop
• adaptation module
• policy response module

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