Creating a Shared Vision Model

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Creating a Shared Vision
Model
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What is a Shared Vision Model?

• A Shared Vision model is a collective view
  of a water resources system developed by managers
  and stakeholders. It is used to facilitate plan
  development, implementation and maintenance.

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• Wait a second!
• Why discuss Shared Vision Models now?
• Are Shared Vision Models part of the seven steps?
• Shared Vision Models can enhance each stage
  of the planning process

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Shared Vision Models Can

• Establish the status quo
• Highlight important problems
• Communicate constraints
• Focus planning objectives

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Shared Vision Models Can
Assess the impacts of a plan

• Identify promising strategies
• Fine-tune targets

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Shared Vision Models Can

• Facilitate plan implementation
• Perform environmental assessments
• Brief decision makers
• Inform the public

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Shared Vision Models Can
Maintain plan effectiveness

• Conduct Virtual Drought Exercises
• Review strategic plans

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Models In
Water Resources Planning

• One of the earliest non-military applications of
  computers was to water resources
• Harvard Water Program foresaw the major impacts
  of computers
• Simulation and optimization models have been used
  to provide operational guidance, forecast
  future conditions, and facilitate
  planning for many years

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Traditional Models

• Traditional water resources models
• Developed and used by analysts
• Developed for the use of a single agency
• Created with little outside input
• Written in FORTRAN
• Run on mainframe computers

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Limitations of Traditional Models as
Planning Tools

• Common model limitations as planning tools
• Require extensive time to create
• Require extensive training
• Require extensive data that may be difficult to
  obtain

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Common Model Limitations as
Planning Tools

• Are viewed as black boxes by non-developers
• Can not be customized to facilitate planning
  decisions
• Can not be run interactively and lack
  transportability
• Represent a single vision

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Characteristics of
Today's Shared Vision Models

• Object Oriented
  Flexible - Interactive - Transparent
• Run on Multiple Platforms Transportable
• Jointly Developed and Used
  Neutral - Accessible
• And as a result Shared Vision models are Useful
  - Trusted - Endorsed

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Comparison of Traditional and
Object-Oriented Simulation Environments
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Perceived Advantages of Shared Vision
Models

• Shared Vision Models
• Improve analysis
• Are more flexible
• Communicate more effectively
• Cost less to develop than traditional approaches

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Modeling Philosophy

• Shared Vision Models should
• Be developed with wide support
• Improve communication among managers and
  stakeholders
• Disseminate information equally
• Improve planning and management of water
  resources
• Serve as a basis for effective negotiation

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Overview of
Model Development Process
Define Modeling Objectives
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Desired Characteristics of Model
Developer(s)

• Collectively the model development team should
  possess
• Respect and trust of stakeholders
• Strong communication skills
• Previous modeling experience
• Strong technical skills
• A broad-based understanding of the system

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Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model
Development

• Advisory
• Participate in interviews
• Share knowledge of the system
• Shape modeling objectives
• Critique prototypes

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Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model
Development

• Active Assessments
• Independently test and use model
• Participate in virtual drought exercises
• Hands-On
• Participate in model construction

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Steps in Creating Shared
Vision Models

• Step 1. Define modeling objectives
• Step 2. Structure the model development process
• Step 3. Conceptualize the system
• Step 4. Construct model
• Step 5. Evaluate and test the model
• Step 6. Confirm stakeholder endorsement
• Step 7. Enhance/modify model
• Step 8. Establish guidance for ongoing model use

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Step 1.
Define Modeling Objectives

• Modeling objectives define what should be
  accomplished by the modeling effort.
• To define modeling objectives we must ask
• Who will use the model?
• How will it be used?
• As well as
• Who will be impacted by the model?
• What are the planning objectives?

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Step 2. Structure the Model
Development Process

• Involve managers and stakeholders
• Identify constraints and potential obstacles
• Identify tasks and establish a time line
• Identify resource requirements
• Assign roles and responsibilities

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Step 3. Conceptualize the System

• Interview managers and stakeholders and review
  previous studies
• Delineate required components
• Determine what is not required
• Define appropriate level of system detail
• Identify an appropriate time step
• Identify performance measures that
  will be modeled

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Step 4. Construct Model

• Steps in Model Construction

Create Tables and Graphs
Create User Interface
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Typical Components of a Shared
Vision Model

• Planning objectives Hydrology
• Reservoirs Ground water supplies
• Demands Forecasts
• Operating policies Constraints
• Triggers Water rights priorities
• Regulations policies Performance
  measures
• Robust documentation Modeling
  assumptions

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Step 5. Evaluate
and Test the Model

• Developers must
• Verify the model
• Validate the model
• Identify areas of uncertainty and sensitivity

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Model Verification

• Stakeholders, managers, and analysts must verify
  that
• The model contains all critical components
• Components are correctly related
• System behavior

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Model Validation

• With the verified model, we must ensure that the
  model can mimic past system behavior
• Average conditions
• Extreme conditions
• Appropriate metrics must be used to compare model
  output with historical data.

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Sensitivity Analysis

• During sensitivity analysis we determine
• How changes in variables or assumptions impact
  system performance
• Which input variables are most uncertain
• This provides an understanding of
• Which input variables most influence system
  performance
• Where more reliable information is needed

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Step 6. Confirm Stakeholder Endorsement

• To obtain model endorsement, model developers
  must
• Ensure that model content is understood
• Convey assumptions
• Demonstrate model validity
• Illustrate models value in planning and decision
  making
• Address concerns that are raised

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Step 7. Enhance/Modify Model

• Before making model enhancements
• Identify requested changes
• Identify why the change is needed
• Prioritize requested modifications
• Consider available resources
• Document changes (who, why, when, how)

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Step 8. Establish Guidance for
Ongoing Model Use

• To ensure continued model usefulness managers and
  stakeholders must
• Identify a caretaker for the model
• Identify how the model will be maintained
• Create training opportunities
• Develop ground rules for model distribution and
  use

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Summary

• A Shared Vision model represents the collective
  view of water resource managers and stakeholders.
  It facilitates plan development, implementation
  and maintenance.
• Shared Vision models have several desirable
  characteristics that enhance their usefulness as
  planning tools.
• Model development teams must be carefully chosen.
• Stakeholder input is essential to shared vision
  model development.
• Guidelines for long-term model use, distribution,
  and maintenance should be established.

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Exercise