David M' Legler

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Strategic Themes for US CLIVAR US CLIVAR
Summit July 2009

• David M. Legler
• U.S. CLIVAR Office
• U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability
  Program
• www.usclivar.org
• legler_at_usclivar.org

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Need for Themes

• Encourage new ideas/thoughts from you!
• Identify most important (ie prioritize)
  scientific challenges US CLIVAR wants to address
• Stimulate strategic (multi-year) thinking and
  planning
• Encourage integration across US CLIVAR, (where
  it makes sense) with other programs

• Who cares?
• Agencies agency strategic plans, funding cycles
• PIs does US CLIVAR have any focus or interests
  that intersect my own? Should I get involved
  in/pay attention to US CLIVAR?
• Other Programs (e.g. WCRP, Carbon Cycle, etc)
  What are US CLIVARs implementation activities?
  Do we share any interests? How can we better
  coordinate plans, and activities?

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Current U.S. CLIVAR Themes (formerly Foci)
I Drought II Decadal Variability/Predictions
Science Themes Are Increasingly Being Motivated
by Interactions with Service and Decision Making
Communities
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Drought

• Activities (2-page summaries from Panels)
• Physics/Mechanisms of drought-relevant processes
  DRICOMP, some field campaigns
• Attributing of causes of drought ongoing
  activities in data assimilation IESA analyses
  of past droughts, etc
• Predictability of drought Drought Working Group
  experiments, links to Intl modeling efforts
• Observations unclear.motivation for improved
  ocean and soil moisture observations?
• Strategy (scope unclear, not formalized)
• Future activities (TBDWorking Group input)

What do we do to build on past successes?
DRICOMP
Drought WG - predictability
What more?
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Decadal Variability/Predictions

• Activities (2-page summaries from Panels)
• Physics/Mechanisms of decadal processes
  ongoing analyses of observed/simulated decadal
  variability some field campaigns (KESS, CLIMODE)
• Attributing causes Distinguishing natural from
  anthropogenic factors (Decadal Predictability
  Working Group), ongoing agency-sponsored
  research, AMOC
• Predictability Decadal Predictability Working
  Group diagnostics, AMOC
• Observations unclear
• Strategy (still early, not formalized except in
  AMOC Strategic Vision document.)
• Future activities (analysis of CMIP5 runs? AMOC
  activities, further Working Group input)

Decadal Predictability WG
2009
2011
2013
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What is a US CLIVAR Theme?
Needs further input

• Compelling topical area/challenge of coupled
  climate scientific research (motivated in part by
  needs of users and services communities)
• Investment of time and energy is anticipated to
  hasten progress and provide some early payoffs
• Sufficiently focused
• Intersects aims and interests of two or more
  Panels
• Addresses mandates or missions of CLIVAR agency
  programs
• Reflects readiness of research community to get
  involved and realize rapid initial payoff
• Provides opportunities to engage communities and
  programs that need to work with CLIVAR to address
  key scientific frontiers
• Guides/catalyzes US CLIVAR-lead activities for a
  minimum of 3-5 years (sufficient time to allow
  new activities to bear fruit)

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Needs further input

• Planning
• Guided by a set of questions
• Guided by a Strategic vision (motivation, scope,
  overview of strategic directions) encapsulated in
  a 5-10 pg brief
• Guiding questions addressed/assessed as a
  concluding action
• Implementation
• Leverages funded research activities
• Builds upon current capabilities and tools (eg
  models, observational networks, etc)
• Employs US CLIVAR Working Groups and Panels.
• Works closely with agencies to identify research
  gaps and seeks modest/limited agency support for
  additional research

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Charge to Panels on Themes

• Wed/Thurs Develop and discuss potential Themes
• Thurs evening Plenary Present top choices (3 max)
• Thurs PM Executive will determine overall top 3
  candidates
• Friday AM breakouts by 3 candidate Themes
  develop further the strengths, possible scope,
  intersections with Panels, possible activities
  (e.g. Working Groups)
• Friday Friday late AM Breakout reports
• SSC Meeting Friday late AM Identify new theme(s)

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Example Areas for Themes Many of these are too
broad, dont restrict discussion to just these

• Climate and (marine?) ecosystems
• S/I Prediction of Tropical SSTs, including ENSO
• Climate Analysis of the Earth System
• Arctic climate changes/relationship to global
  system
• Carbon cycle diagnosis/prediction (with Carbon
  Cycle Science Program?)
• Extremes
• Climate and Aerosols (some activities underway
  within WCRP)
• Risk Assessment

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Next Steps (post Summit)

• Develop prospectus for new Working Group(s) for
  consideration (later this year)
• Identify partnerships/linkages that need be
  established/nurtured (USCPO and agencies can
  help)
• Summit 2010 to center around new theme

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Discussion

• What more can/should CLIVAR lead with regards to
  Drought? Scope of our efforts?
• What follow-up activities will Panels take on?
• Do we need another Working Group?
• Do we just let other activities (Siegfrieds
  list) continue and revisit Drought later
• Themes
• Sufficient motivation?
• Attributes of a good Theme?
• Desired outcomes clear?

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What a US CLIVAR Theme Isnt

• A means to stimulate and coordinate routine
  ongoing research activities without focus and
  without an expressed intent of desired outcomes

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Theme Life-Cycle?

• Theme Identified
• Working Group(s) to initiate focused activities
  and hold community workshop
• Strategic Plan to carry on beyond WG