From Forestland To House Lot

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From Forestland To House Lot
Carbon Stock Changes and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
from Exurban Land Development in Central New
Hampshire
Adam Wienert Masters Thesis
Presentation Spring 2006
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Outline

• Project genesis and context
• House lot disturbances
• Quantifying carbon changes
• Data collection and processing
• Findings
• Scaling up
• Fitting into other budgets
• New Hampshire emissions and policy
• Forest Service budgeting
• Additional work
• Reducing impacts

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Climate Change
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The Global Carbon Cycle
Figures in Billion Metric Tons/Year
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Carbon Sequestration

• Increasing interest in the role of sequestration
  in slowing CO2 concentration build-up

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Forest Carbon Cycle
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Forest Carbon Distribution
Litter and Debris - 8
Soil - 57
Trees - 35
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Carbon Sequestration

• Increasing interest in the role of sequestration
  in slowing CO2 concentration build-up
• Diverse thoughts on effectiveness
• What is the best use of economic resources?
• Will plants sequester more carbon?
• Will climate change create more potential threats
  to forests?
• Lack of human/social implications

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Carbon Sequestration

• Sequestration programs in potential conflict with
  forecast land-use change
• 28.3 million hectares (70 million acres) of rural
  land will be converted to urban/developed uses in
  the next 20 years
• Little connection between large scale ecosystem
  function and what is happening at the local level

US Global Climate Change Research Program,
January 2006
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Local Land Use Change
Development
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Potential Impacts from Development

• Watershed degradation
• Ecosystem fragmentation
• Impacts on public health
• Increased reliance on driving
• Loss of social values and regional character

What about Carbon?
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Study Questions

• What are the impacts of home development on
  terrestrial carbon sequestration and emissions?
• Measuring carbon stocks in trees and soils
• Expressing changes as fluxes - rates of emissions
  to the atmosphere

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Study Questions

• What are the impacts of home development on
  terrestrial carbon sequestration and emissions?
• Examining carbon stocks in trees and soils
• Expressing changes as fluxes - rates of emissions
  to the atmosphere
• How do changes from home development fit into
  larger carbon budgets?

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What are the Impacts of Home Development on
Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration and Emissions ?
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Action Initial Clearing Disturbance CO2
Emissions from Increased Soil Respiration
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Action Above Ground Biomass Removal Disturbance
CO2 Emissions from Burning, Wood Product
Creation, and Decay
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Action Foundation Built Disturbance CO2
Emissions from Increased Soil Respiration
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Action Leach Field Built Disturbance CO2
Emissions from Increased Soil Respiration
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Action Road Built Disturbance CO2 Emissions
from Increased Soil Respiration
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Action House Built Disturbance Long Term
Storage of Carbon in Building Materials
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Action Time Goes By Disturbance Lost
Sequestration Potential in Disturbed Area and Road
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Sequestration in New England

• Forests of New England are a carbon sink
• Vital to reducing total U.S. emissions
• In New Hampshire, the growth of forests accounts
  for a 30 offset of total emissions
• To understand why forests are growing, we can
  look at land use history

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Late 1700s
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Why New Hampshire?

• 84 forested
• Fastest growing state in New England during the
  past 40 years
• I-93 widening proposal
• Pressure on private forest owners and forestry
  industry
• Loss of over 7,000 hectares/year (27 mi2)

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Grafton County, NH

• 443,665 hectares
• 1,713 mi2
• 84,000 residents
• Population growth between 1990 and 2000 - 9
• Population growth between 1970 and 2000 - 49
• 47,000 housing units

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Study Site Locations
Thornton

• Campton
• 13,600 hectares (52.5 mi2)
• 2,840 residents
• 1,170 in 1970 (143 growth)
• 2,000 housing units
• Thornton
• 13,130 hectares (50.7 mi2)
• 1,950 residents
• 594 in 1970 (230 growth)
• 1,700 housing units

Campton
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Methodology
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Campton - 89 Lots
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Thornton - 81 Lots
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Methodology

• In Situ Measurements during Lot Visits
• Cleared Area using GPS
• Above Ground Biomass using DBH
• Lot Data
• Town Tax Databases
• GIS
• Soil Sampling

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Soil Profile
O Layer
Ap Layer
B Layer
C Layer
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Soil Carbon Content
Percent Carbon by Layer
Bulk Density of Layer
Depth of Layer
12kg ? 1.2kgC/m2
Assumed Bulk Densities O Layer - 0.19 Ap Layer
- 0.83 B Layer - 1.03 (Hamburg Lab Data)
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Soil Carbon Content
7 meters from house
High amount of fill
3.3kg ? .4kgC/m2
72 below reference
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Soil Carbon Content
12 meters from house
No O Layer
2.9kg ? .3kgC/m2
75 below reference
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Results

• Average Lot Characteristics
• Carbon Budget for Average Lot
• Preliminary Scaling Efforts

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n 170
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n 155
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n 155
mean .61 acres
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n 155
mean 6.88 Mg/ha
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n 155
mean 2,005 ft2
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n 155
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n 155
r2 .37 p lt .01
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Carbon Budget

• Assumptions
• 70 year old forest when lot cleared for
  development
• 120 year old forest when projecting growth and
  respiration rates into the future
• Wood harvest not primarily for products

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Soil Carbon Emissions
Disturbance Area
Cleared Acreage Surrounding Home
Soil Carbon Content (gC/m2)
x
Respiration Rate
x

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Soil Carbon Emissions
Footprint
Volume of Footprint at 5 Depth
Soil Carbon Content (gC/m2)
x
Respiration Rate
x
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Soil Carbon Emissions
Leach Field
Minimum Required Area per Regulations
Soil Carbon Content (gC/m2)
x
Respiration Rate
x
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Soil Carbon Emissions
Road
Minimum Required Frontage x Width - 3,000ft2
Soil Carbon Content (gC/m2)
x
Respiration Rate
x
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Emissions from AGB Removal
Fate of Carbon in AGB
Assumed AGB of Disturbance Area at Age 70
Actual AGB remaining in Disturbance Area
Proportion Respired
-
x
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Loss of Sequestration Potential
Disturbance Area
Actual AGB Remaining in Disturbance Area
Projected to Age 120
Assumed AGB of Disturbance Area at Age 120
Carbon in AGB (50)
-
x
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Loss of Sequestration Potential
Road
Assumed AGB of Disturbance Area at Age 120
Minimum Required Frontage x Width - 3,000ft2
Carbon in AGB (50)
x
x
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House Construction

• Long term storage in materials
• Offset to carbon emissions
• No current estimate

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Soil Carbon Emissions - 50 Yrs
Disturbance Area 7 - 23 MgC/House
House Footprint 0.6 - 2 MgC/House
Leach Field 0.3 - 1 MgC/House
Road 0.6 - 2 MgC/House
Tree Harvest 23 - 34 MgC/House
Total 31 - 62 MgC/House
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Lost Sequestration Potential - 50 Yrs
Disturbance Area 23 - 26 MgC/House
Road 2 - 3 MgC/House
Total 25 - 29 MgC/House
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Total Carbon Loss - 50 Yrs
Emissions 31 - 62 MgC/House
Lost Sequestration 25 - 29 MgC/House
Total 56 - 91 MgC/House
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Scaling Up

• Estimate 6,500 homes built each year in New
  Hampshire
• 360,000 - 590,000 MgC/50 years
• 1.3 million - 2.2 million MTCDE/50 years

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How do the Results Fit into Larger Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Budgets?
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New Hampshires Emissions

• NH emissions 18.5 million MTCDE/year
• 1.3 million - 2.2 million MTCDE/50 years
• 7 - 12 of total emissions

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New Hampshires Emissions

• NH emissions 18.5 million MTCDE/year
• 1.3 million - 2.2 million MTCDE/50 years
• 7 - 12 of total emissions
• How can this impact be reduced while continuing
  growth?

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New Hampshires Emissions

• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
• Introduced in 2003 to develop a cap and trade
  emissions system among NE states
• Set cap in 2009 - 2015, then reduce
• MOU signed by 7 states in Dec 2005

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New Hampshires Emissions

• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
• Introduced in 2003 to develop a cap and trade
  emissions system among NE states
• Set cap in 2009 - 2015, then reduce
• MOU signed by 7 states in Dec 2005
• Can Land Use and Conservation play a part in
  future reductions?

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Forest Inventory and Analysis

• Forest Census
• Use of Remote Sensing and field data
• Data Issues with FIA
• Old land use maps
• Subjective field analysis
• Doubling of data forest vs urban forest
• Loss of forest means loss of all carbon

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Future Work

• Tighten ranges used for carbon budget
• Development to lessen carbon impacts
• Combine spatially explicit database of Grafton
  County land use history with my results
• Produce a scientific paper detailing carbon
  impacts of home development and website to
  introduce topic of development and carbon
  sequestration

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Thanks

• Steve
• Amy and Steph, and the rest of the ES students
• Matt V.
• MacMillan 110 Lab
• Summer Crew
• LULCC group
• Skee Houghton and Neil Sampson, my readers
• Linda Heath of USFS
• Caroline
• Lynn
• Patti and Betsy
• Maya

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Questions and Discussion