Building on tradition? The ECA experience

1
Building on tradition? The ECA experience

• Gero Carletto
• DECRG, The World Bank
• Jan 24, 2008

2

• If you want to make enemies, try to change
  something 
• Woodrow Wilson

3
LSMS goes East

• Different ways to introduce something new
• The Alexander the Great model
• The Talleyrand model
• The Ultimate Warrior Is A Diplomat

4
The context

• Acquis communautaire
• The old continent, the new (bad?) attitude
• Engraved tradition with HBS

5
The Household Budget Survey

• Measurement of living conditions
• CPI
• Large sample size
• Continuous sample rotation
• Urban only ?
• High non-response rate

6
Non-response rates

• High and increasing over time large
  instability
• Bulgaria from 33 to 37 from 1993 to 2000 (with
  peak of 49 in 1997)
• Poland from 23 to 49 bet/w 1992 and 2000
• Russia from 10 to 16 in same period with peak
  of 48 in 1997

7
Goals often similar

• Provide needed data yesterday!
• Improve efficiency
• Simplify, standardize
• Sustainability
• Continuity
• Generate demand
• Ownership

8
However

• Data needs but what type of data?
• Poverty, multi-sector, CPI, NA,
• Conflicting agendas
• Sample size, domains of inference
• Short-term vs. long-term goals
• Timeline
• Data quality, Non-response rates
• Human resources
• Financial resources

9
Options

• Bulldoze and build Albania
• The Annex Bulgaria
• The Addition Kazakhstan
• Move out several other countries

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Albania the problem

• No (comparable) poverty figures
• No sector information
• Last survey HBS 2000, urban only
• Urgency
• Little capacity
• The Eurostat factor
• But donor interest, PRSP, eager local
  counterparts, donor crack in statistics,

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Albania the solution

• LSMS program
• multi-year funding
• gradual small sample
• Integrated system scrap HBS for the time being
• Focus on capacity building (set smaller goals)
• Build demand data user group
• Diary, COICOP,

12
Bulgaria the problem

• 365-day diary balance sheet
• High non-response (pensioners)
• Lack of transparency, little training
• Very little excitement for change
• NSO vs. RoB
• Data NOW!
• Little resources
• The Eurostat2 factor

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Bulgaria the solution

• Dont change even if it is broken!
• Outsourced quick and clean survey, with NSO
  involvement (2001)
• TFSCB with NSO and MOLSP
• BMTHS (2003) and revision of HBS
• BUT
• Short time horizon (BMTHS but no revision)
• The Eurostat3 factor / accession
• Lack of commitment. Sustainability?

14
Kazakhstan the problem

• Long tradition with HBS
• Late in the process
• Unwillingness to change
• Secretive
• No resources
• No training
• ADB, mixed signals
• Not enough commitment on both sides

15
Kazakhstan the solution?

• Damage control! Piggybacking.
• Analysis with old and quarterly data, data entry
  (gaining trust demo)
• Add modules according to rotation
• Some training
• Quality control (data entry)
• BUT
• no long-term vision/intention, little commitment,
  no resources,

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In conclusion

• Same problem, different solutions!
• Albania not yet accession, positioning/patience,
  multi-year program/funding, trust
• Bulgaria accession imminent, double dipping,
  mistrust, little resources, multi-institution
  involvement
• KAZ too late in process, no funding, language

17

• If you want to truly understand something, try to
  change it. 
• Kurt Lewin
• If you want to change something, try to truly
  understand it