Components of the Perfect Storm

1
Components of the Perfect Storm

• Global Demographics and the Impact on the
  United States

Community Service Council of Greater
Tulsa September 27, 2007
2
This Presentation was Drawn from Major Works in
the Field

• Long Term Global Demographic Trends Reshaping
  the Geopolitical Landscape. Washington DC
  Central Intelligence Agency, July 2001.
• World Population Prospects The 2006 Revision
  Highlights. New York United Nations, 2007.
• E. Weiner and A Brown. Future Think How to
  Think Clearly in a Time of Change. New York
  Prentice Hall, Inc., 2005.

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
3
By 2020What will be the Worlds Population
Distribution?

• The worlds population will be more than 7.8
  billion people in 2020.
• Of 100 people, how many will be
• ___ from Asia (including 19 Chinese and 17
  Indians)?
• ___ from the Northern Hemisphere including the
  US?
• ___ from Africa (including 13 from Sub-Saharan
  Africa)?
• ___ from the Middle East?
• ___ from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet
  Union?
• ___ from Western Europe?

Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
4
By 2020 the Worlds Population Will be More than
7.8 Billion People

• Of 100 people, this is projected to be the mix
• 56 from Asia (including 19 Chinese and 17
  Indians)
• 13 from the Northern Hemisphere including the US
• 16 from Africa (including 13 from Sub-Saharan
  Africa)
• 3 from the Middle East
• 7 from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union
• 5 from Western Europe

Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
5
Key Findings from the Global Trends Indicate a
Reshaping of the Global LandscapeSome Highlights

• Demographic trends will reshape the global
  landscape.
• The population of Europe and Russia will shrink
  dramatically, from 22 in 1950, to 13 in 2000,
  to 7.5 in 2050.
• Only the US and Russia will remain on the list of
  the top 10 most populous nations from 1950.
• Of the 1.5 billion people that the world
  population will gain by 2020, most will be added
  to states in Asia and Africa.

Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Key Findings from the Global Trends Indicate a
Reshaping of the Global LandscapeSome
Highlights, continued

• By 2015, for the first time in history, a
  majority of the worlds population will live in
  cities.
• By 2050, the global 65 age cohort will triple in
  size to about 1.5 billion, or 16 of the total
  population.
• Despite the overall trend toward aging, many
  developing nations will experience substantial
  youth bulges Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.
• Global migration may lend some stabilization to
  both sending and receiving countries.
• Environmental issues will disrupt population
  projections in ways not readily apparent.

Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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A Snapshot of the Global Demographic Trends
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Key Global Demographic Trends Are Attributed to
Multiple Causes

• Population Growth
• Aging of the Population
• Differences in fertility rates
• Difference in life expectancy
• Migration
• Urbanization
• Youth Bulge
• Environmental Factors
• Health
• Natural Disasters and Conflicts

Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Take a Closer Look at Four Global Firsts

• Population Growth
• Aging of the Population
• Differences in fertility rates
• Difference in life expectancy
• Migration
• Urbanization

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Global First 1 Population Growth Tops 9
Billion
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Global Population Growth is Driven By
Developing Countries
World Population 1950-2050.
8.7 B
6.1 B
2.5 B
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision (2005).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Changes in Population Over Time Reveal Developed
Countries are Becoming Smaller
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
13
10 Largest Countries in the World in 2007 and
2050 Projections
Source Population Reference Bureau, 2007 World
Population Data Sheets (2007).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Global First 2 Prolonged Aging of the
Population

• Longer life span
• Lower fertility

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Global Aging - 2000, 2020 and 2050
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
16
Population Aging Is Occurring Worldwide
Source C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data
Sheet, and United Nations Population Division.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Global Aging Most Significant in Developed
Countries
Source C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data
Sheet, and United Nations Population Division.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Dramatic Change in Median Age in Many Individual
Countries, Creates Historic Challenges
19
Median Age Increasing in Developed Countries
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Countries with the Longest Life Expectancies are
in Developed Countries, and Shortest Life
Expectancies are in Developing Countries
Source World Population Highlights, Key
Findings from PRBs 2007 Population Data Sheet,
Population Bulletin, 623.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Life Expectancy Has Increased Most in Less
Developed Countries Since 1950
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2006 Revision (2007) and C. Haub,
2007 World Population Data Sheet.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Fertility Rates Have Fallen in Every Major World
Region, but Are Still Highest in Sub-Saharan
Africa
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2006 Revision (2007) and C. Haub,
2007 World Population Data Sheet.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Total Fertility Rates for Selected Countries are
the Lowest in Developed Countries
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
24
Old Age Dependency Ratio Selected Countries,
2000, 2025, and 2050 Indicate Greater Dependency
in Developed Countries
25
Aging Population and Decline in Fertility Rates
will Tighten Labor Markets in Developed Countries
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
26
Median Age is Increasing for Major Areas of the
World 1950, 1975, 2005 and 2050 by Variant
Source United Nations Population Division, DESA,
World Population Prospects The 2006 Revision.
Prepared by the Community Service Council of
Greater Tulsa
27
Population by Age and Gender in Developed
Countries 2005 is Decreasing
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision (2005).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Population by Age and Gender in Developing
Countries, 2005 is Increasing
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision (2005).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Global First 3 Migration is
UnstoppableStay and Starve Forces People to
Move
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Migration Offers Partial Remedy to Aging
Population and Youth Bulges

• Factors that impact global migration over the
  next 20 years include
• Economic reform, globalization, and
  democratization
• A growth in income differences between wealthy
  and poor countries resulting from the mixed
  adoption of new economy reformsStay and starve
• Illegal migration is projected to exceed legal
  migration
• Timing and nature of policy reforms by
  governments key to effective response

Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
31
Average Annual Net Number of International
Migrants
Source Population Division of the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects
The 2006 Revision Highlights. New York United
Nations.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
32
Average Annual Net Number of International
Migrants
Source Population Division of the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects
The 2006 Revision Highlights. New York United
Nations.
33
Migrants to the Developed World
Immigrants as a Share of Annual Population Growth
in Developed Countries
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
34
Natural Increase Still Accounts for Almost 60
of Population Growth in the US, but the Share
from International Migration Has Been Increasing
Percent of U.S. population growth due to natural
increase and net migration, 1980-2005
Source U.S. Census Bureau 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Natural Increase Still Accounts for Almost 60 of
Population Growth in the U.S., but the Share from
International Migration Has Been
IncreasingPercent of U.S. population growth due
to natural increase and net migration, 1980-2005
Source U.S. Census Bureau. 1980, 1990, 2000
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Countries Whose Population are Expected to
Decline Between 2000 and 2050Due to Low
Fertility Rates and Poor Immigration Response
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
37
Migrants Needed to Keep Aging Dependency Ratios
from Rising Above 1995 Levels (1998-1999
Estimates)
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
38
Migration is a Partial Solution to Other
Demographic Challenges

• The labor force in the developing world is
  expected to double from 1.7 billion in 1998 to
  3.1 billion by 2025
• The European Union will need 1.7 million
  high-tech workers by 2003, many coming outside of
  the EU
• The US expects labor shortages to leave 890,000
  high tech jobs unfilled of 1.6 million and
  increases to continue for several years
• Migrants who choose to remain in host countries
  with aging population will help to boost
  government revenues
• Migrants will help relieve the social and
  political pressures associated with large
  populations of unemployed and restless youth in
  their home countries

Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001, pg 43).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
39
Y-migration Will Impact the United States Need
for High-Tech Workforce

• The generation of United States population born
  from between 1978 and 1995 will leave the country
  to seek opportunities for affordable, quality
  life. GenY is the same size as the Baby Boomer
  population.
• GenY will have enormous debt upon graduation from
  college (40 to 70K in private, 20K public
  schools)
• Demand for qualified workers will be expanding in
  Europe (Germany, France, and Italy) to stay at
  1995 employee replacement levels
• There are currently 1.3M more jobs in information
  technology in Europe then qualified workers
• The middle class is shrinking in the US and
  growing internationally

Source E. Weiner and A Brown. Future Think How
to Think Clearly in a Time of Change. New York
Prentice Hall, Inc., 2005
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
40
The US Ranking in the Global Competitiveness
Index has Dropped From 1 in 2005 to 6 in 2007

• Rank Country Economy Score
• 1 Switzerland 5.81
• 2 Finland 5.76
• 3 Sweden 5.74
• 4 Denmark 5.70
• 5 Singapore 5.63
• 6 United States 5.61
• 7 Japan 5.60
• 8 Germany 5.58
• 9 Netherlands 5.56
• 10 United Kingdom 5.54

Source Global Competitiveness Index, World
Economic Forum, 2007
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
41
Severe Variations in Income Equity Around the
World
Gini Index of Income Distribution
Sweden (2000)
25
Ukraine (2003)
28
Zero corresponds to perfect income equality.
India (2004)
37
Israel (2001)
39
Burkina Faso (2003)
40
United States (2000)
41
Mexico (2004)
46
China (2004)
47
Zambia (2004)
51
Boliva (2002)
60
Source Population Reference Bureau, 2007 World
Population Data Sheets (2007).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Percent of Population Foreign-Born in More
Developed Countries Rising, Canada, Ireland, and
Spain, 1960-2005
Source United Nations Population Division.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Percent of Foreign-Born Also Rising in Less
Developed Countries, 1960 to 2005
Source United Nations Population Division.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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The Number of Foreign-Born in the U.S. is at an
All-Time High, but Their Share of the Total
Population is Still Below That of 1910
Foreign-born population, United States,
1850-2005
Source U.S. Census Bureau 2005.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
45
In 1990, Almost Half of All U.S. Counties Had
Less Than 1 Foreign-Born, and Only One-Tenth
Had 5 or More
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Decennial
Census.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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By 2000, Only One-Fourth of US Counties Had Less
Than 1 Foreign-Born, and One in Five Had 5 or
More
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial
Census.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Hispanic Latino Impact on Overall Population
Change 1990-2006Population Reference Bureau, 2006
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Percent Population Change April 1, 2000 - July
1, 2006US Census Population Estimates
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Global First 4UrbanizationNearly Two-Thirds
of the Worlds Population Will Live in Cities
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Urbanization Has Grown Dramatically Since the
1970s
Source United Nations, World Urbanization
Prospects The 2005 Revision (2006).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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By 2030, Nearly Two-Thirds of the Worlds
Population Will Live in Urban Areas
Source United Nations, World Urbanization
Prospects The 2005 Revision (2006) and C. Haub,
2007 World Population Data Sheet.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Mega Cities with Populations Greater than 8
Million are Expected to Double in Size by 2015
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
53
Potential for Global Urban Crisis Grows because
Growth Outpaces Ability of the Cities to Cope
with GrowthWho Will Pay the Price?
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
54
Other Driving Forces Youth Bulge Impacts the
Stability of Developing Countries
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Youth Bulge Most Prevalent in the Developing
Countries
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
56
Sub-Saharan Africa will Have the Greatest Youth
Bulges Through 2020 Youth Bulges May Contribute
to Political Instability
Source US Bureau of Census, International
Database, (2007). Central Intelligence Agency,
Long Term Global Demographic Trends Reshaping
the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
57
Other Driving Forces Environmental Factors
Will Pose Threats to Health and Safety
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
58
Environmental Issues Disrupt Population
Projections in Ways Not Readily Apparent

• Water pollution
• Soil degradation and flooding
• Air pollution and acid rain
• Deforestation
• Urban sprawl and decreased preserved lands

Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
59
The World Is Closer to Meeting the Clean-Water
Access Target Than the Sanitation Target
Percent of Population with Access to Improved
Water and Sanitation, 1990-2002, and 2015 MDG
targets
Source UNICEF and WHO, Country, Regional, and
Global Estimates on Water and Sanitation (2004).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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A Large Gap Exists Between Carbon Dioxide
Emissions of Developed and Developing Regions
Source C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data
Sheet.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Other Driving Forces Health Disparities
Increase in Developing Countries
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Infectious Diseases Continue to be Leading
Causes of Death Globally

• Tuberculosis
• Malaria
• Hepatitis
• HIV/AIDS
• Cholera
• Diptheria
• Dysentery

Heart Disease Cancer Diabetes Tuberculosis HIV/AID
S Hepatitis B and C
Source Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term
Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the
Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
63
In Low-Income and Middle-Income Countries, 30
Percent of All Children Are Underweight
Source C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data
Sheet.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Developing Countries with the Highest and Lowest
Shares of Children Under Age 5 who are Underweight
Source Population Reference Bureau, 2007 World
Population Data Sheets (2007).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Percent Overweight and Obese in School Age
Children
Source United Nations Standing Committee on
Nutrition (SCN), Overweight and Obesity, SCN
News29 (Late 2004-Early 2005).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
66
Long a Problem in Industrialized Countries,
Obesity Is Becoming a Problem in the Developing
World
Source World Health Organization, WHO Global
InfoBase Online, Country Comparable Data
(http//infobase.who.int, accessed June 15, 2007).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
67
Iron-Deficiency Anemia Remains a Problem in Many
Parts of the Developing World
Source ORC Macro, MEASURE DHS STATcompiler
(www.measuredhs.com, accessed June 15, 2007).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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HIV/AIDS is More Common in Less Developed Regions
Source C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
69
HIV Prevalence Is Highest in Southern Africa
Source C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data
Sheet.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Disparities in Access to Sanitation Exist Across
Regions and Between Urban and Rural Areas
Source UNICEF and WHO, Country, Regional, and
Global Estimates on Water and Sanitation (2004).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
71
Other Driving Forces Disasters and Conflicts
are Likely to Cause More Loss of Life and
Economic Disruption
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
72
Natural Disaster and Conflicts Present a Strain
on Global Stability

• Disasters
• More prevalent in the Asian-Pacific Region
• Earthquakes and flooding
• Hurricanes and tornadoes
• Nuclear contamination

• Conflicts
• Rogue states
• Civil wars and peacekeeping efforts
• Immigration and intolerance
• Terrorism

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
73
Impact of Global Demographic Trends on the United
StatesJust a Few to Keep in Mind

• The U.S. will likely
• Experience all of the Global Firsts and their
  challenges more detailed in U.S. presentation
• See traditional allies face unprecedented crisis
  and distraction related to aging (aging could
  severely reduce Japans economic power)
• Be lonelier in facing global hotspots without
  older Europe

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Impact of Global Demographic Trends on United
StatesJust a Few to Keep in Mind, continued

• The U.S. will likely
• Take more responsibility for meeting humanitarian
  needs which will likely increase with greater
  urbanization and greater populations in
  developing countries
• Face greater uncertainty with key rivals?Russia,
  China ?facing critical demographic challenges
• Confront growing need to invest in education of
  global workforce, just for security reasons

Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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ReferencesDemographics
Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet
(Washington, DC Population Reference Bureau,
2007). Mary M. Kent and Carl Haub, Global
Demographic Divide, Population Bulletin 60, no.
4 (2005). Mary M. Kent and Sandra Yin,
Controlling Infectious Diseases, Population
Bulletin 61, no. 2 (2006). Joseph A. McFalls
Jr., Population A Lively Introduction,
Population Bulletin 62, no. 1 (2007). United
Nations, World Population Prospects The 2006
Revision (New York United Nations, 2007).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
76
ReferencesAIDS
Lori S. Ashford, How HIV and AIDS Affect
Populations (Washington, DC Population Reference
Bureau, 2006). Carl Haub, 2007 World Population
Data Sheet (Washington, DC Population Reference
Bureau, 2007). Carl Haub, Improving Data
Collection Efforts to Estimate HIV/AIDS,
accessed online at www.prb.org, on June 20, 2007.
Peter R. Lamptey, Jami L. Johnson, and Marya
Khan, The Global Challenge of HIV and AIDS,
Population Bulletin 61, no. 1 (2006). UNAIDS,
AIDS Epidemic Update December 2006, accessed
online at www.unaids.org, on June 28, 2007.
United Nations, World Population Prospects The
2006 Revision (New York United Nations, 2007).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
77
ReferencesMigration
Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet
(Washington, DC Population Reference Bureau,
2007). Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi and Mary M. Kent,
Challenges and OpportunitiesThe Population of
the Middle East and North Africa, Population
Bulletin 62, no. 2 (2007). Mary M. Kent and Carl
Haub, Global Demographic Divide, Population
Bulletin 60, no. 4 (2006). Philip Martin and
Elizabeth Midgley, Immigration Shaping and
Reshaping America, Population Bulletin 61, no. 4
(2006). Philip Martin and Elizabeth Midgley,
International Migration, Population Bulletin
(forthcoming). Dilip Ratha and William Shaw,
South-South Migration and Remittances, accessed
online at www.worldbank.org, on July 2, 2007. UN
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2006
Global Trends (Geneva UNHCR, 2007). Sandra Yin,
The Plight of Internally Displaced Persons,
accessed online at www.prb.org, on July 2, 2007.
Nancy V. Yinger, Feminization of Migration,
accessed online at www.prb.org, on July 2, 2007.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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ReferencesUrbanization
Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet
(Washington, DC Population Reference Bureau,
2007). George Martine, The State of World
Population 2007 Unleashing the Potential of
Urban Growth (New York United Nations, 2007).
Office of the Registrar General, India Census
of India 2001 Table S00-017 Distribution of
Households by Availability of Bathroom, Type of
Latrine Within the House and Type of Drainage
Connectivity for Waste Water Outlet, accessed
online at www.censusindia.net, on July 6, 2007.
Barbara Boyle Torrey, Urbanization An
Environmental Force to Be Reckoned With,
accessed online at www.prb.org, on June 26, 2007.
United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects
The 2005 Revision (New York United Nations,
2006). United Nations, 2003 Demographic Yearbook
(New York United Nations, 2006).
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
79
ReferencesEnvironment
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations, State of the World's Forests 2007,
accessed online at www.fao.org, on July 9, 2007.
Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet
(Washington, DC Population Reference Bureau,
2007). Michael D. Jennings, Gross Amount of
Habitat Lost by Country (Moscow, Idaho The
Nature Conservancy, 2007). United Nations
Environment Programme, GEO-2000 Global
Environmental Outlook, accessed online at
www.unep.org, on July 9, 2007. World Resources
Institute, CO2 Emissions per Capita, accessed
online at http//earthtrends.wri.org, on July 9,
2007.
Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa
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Global Profile 2007

• is available on our website
• www.csctulsa.org

Prepared for the Tulsa Area United Way Community
Investments Process By the Community Service
Council of Greater Tulsa January, 2007