Future Trends on the European Labour Market

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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th 2008

• Future Trends on the European Labour Market
• Increased Competition for and Shortage of Skilled
  Key-Workers
• Søren Kaj Andersen

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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th 2008The
European perspective
University of Copenhagen

• The regulation
• Freedom of movement on the EU-labour market
• Beyond 2009 / 2011
• All transitional regimes are phased out
• Increased competition for (skilled) workers e.g.
  consequences of an open German labour market!
• Increased pressure on Nordic / Western European
  labour market regulation? Posted workers (the
  Vaxholm/Laval case), temporary work agencies
• Wage and welfare gap between east and west
• The win-win scenario (brain circulation)?
• The win-loose scenario (brain drain)?

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University of Copenhagen
EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th 2008 The
Nordic countries Work permits to individual job
seekers from the EU-8 (2) source, Fafo
2004 (1 may-31 dec.) 2005 2006 2007 (1 Jan-31 July) Total 1 May 2004- 31 July 2007
Denmark (issued work and residence permits 2.097 4.923 10.353 10.367 2008 25.000 27.740 (incl. renewals)
Finland (decision by the Labour Agency 2.169 2.633 - (6.273) -
Iceland (work Permits granted/registration by employer 515 (666) 2.764 (844) 6.004 (1.496) 3.091 (1.136) 12.374 (4.142)
Norway (EEA permits granted) 16.975 (3.558) 19.301 (17.902) 29.275 (25.510) 23.879 (22.230) 2008 60.000 89.430 (69.200)
Sweden (registered new EEA applications, work) 3963 (128) 4.805 (2.133) 5.692 (289) 2.440 16.900 (2.550)
Total 25.719 (4.352) 34.426 (20.879) 51.324 (27.295) 39.777 (23.366) 151.246 (75.892)
The numbers in brackets are renewals
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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th 2008The
Nordic countries Posted workers from EU-8 (2)
University of Copenhagen

• Sweden 20.000 posted workers in construction
  (Swedish LO 2006)
• Finland More than 10.000 (Finnish
  authorities/E101, 2006)
• Norway 21.000 (Norwegian tax authorities, 2007)
• Denmark 13.000 posted workers in construction,
  December 2007
• Iceland 20 active service providers (May 2008)
• Everyone agrees that the actual numbers of
  posted workers are (significantly) higher

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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th 2008
European work migration skilled key-workers
University of Copenhagen

• Immigration/return migration Doctors and nurses
  from Eastern Europe to the Nordic countries
• A still more mobile European work force!
• Circular migration so far mostly unskilled and
  skilled workers skilled key-workers and
  high-skilled workers in the future?
• Weekly commuters
• Poles and Germans in Danish industries
  (engineers via TWAs?)
• Commuting from Poland
• GPs in Poland 300 per month in The UK 80
  per hour, source IPPR
• Posted Workers / Foreign service providers
• Impact of the Service Directive

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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th
2008European challenges the declining work
force
University of Copenhagen

• Between 2010 and 2030, at current immigration
  flows, EU-25s working age population will be
  reduced by some 20 million EU Commission
• Share of working population as share of total
  population is expected to decrease from 67.2 in
  2004 to 56.7 in 2050, a fall of 52 million
  Eurostat projections

Unemployment in EU-27 is decreasing however
around 16 million EU-27 citizens are still
unemployed
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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th 2008The
third-country perspective
University of Copenhagen
The regulation New policy initiatives EU-level
and national level (incl. the Nordic countries)
Third-country highly qualified workers as percentage of total work force Third-country highly qualified workers as percentage of total work force
European Union 1.7
Australia 9.9
Canada 7.3
US 3.2
Switzerland 5.3
Source European Commission Source European Commission

• EU Commissioner Frattini in the European
  Parliament
• 85 of unskilled labour migration goes to the EU
  and 5 to the US, whereas 
• 55 of skilled labour goes to the US and only 5
  to the EU

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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th
2008Attracting skilled key-workers
University of Copenhagen

• The relatively large inflow of EU8 (2) migrant
  workers/posted workers to the Nordic countries
• based on the comparatively high wage levels
  and favourable working conditions for unskilled
  and skilled workers in the Nordic countries
• The comparatively lower wage levels for highly
  skilled workers in the Nordic countries a
  barrier for attracting highly skilled migrants?
• Skilled and highly skilled workers from EU-8
  (2)/third-countries are doing unskilled and
  semi-skilled work in the Nordic countries (brain
  waste)
• Barriers Language, level of taxation

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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th
2008Recruitment experiences so far
University of Copenhagen

• Recruiting EU-8 (2) migrants
• Personal contacts
• Business partners
• Temporary work agencies, new agents
• A rapidly growing business area. Nordic wage
  levels, working
• conditions in many cases violated (TWAs the
  worst and the best)
• Public employment services play a limited role
• Maybe more important for the overall migration
• Existence of networks community of Poles
• Potential recruitment patterns concerning skilled
  third-country workers?

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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th 2008How
to reduce the lack of skilled key-workers?
University of Copenhagen

• Encourage circular/return migration or
  immigration of EU workers and/or workers from
  outside the EU (brain circulation vs. brain
  drain)
• We should not forget other initiatives
• Discourage early retirement
• Raise the legal retirement age
• Encourage part-time workers to change to
  full-time work
• Increase the number of legal weekly working hours
• (Encourage non-working women to participate in
  the labour market)
• These initiatives will target all groups on the
  labour market from low skilled to high skilled
  workers

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EURES IS Mobility Conference, May 30th 2008 Some
questions on future trends

• Can we avoid the development of secondary labour
  markets in the Nordic countries?
• Brain drain, waste or circulation?
• To recruit skilled key-workers or highly skilled
  workers in developing countries any dilemmas?
• Sustainable migration!
• Cooperation between authorities in sending and
  receiving countries on securing wages and social
  contributions on education and training, etc