Energy Management as it applies to South Africa

1
Energy Management as it applies to South Africa

• Prof LJ Grobler (CEM, CMVP)
• Director Energy Cybernetics
• Sun City
• 16 May 2007

2
Drivers in SA

• Global Warming
• Electricity Security
• Government Energy Efficiency Strategy
• Energy Efficiency Accord
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
• Competitiveness

3
Global Warming
4
Global Warming
5
The Stern Report
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Stern Report Influence of CO² on Global
Temperature
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Electricity Security
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Electricity security in South Africa?
2007
The consumption has equaled generating capacity
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Load Growth

• Accelerated Shared Growth Initiative for South
  Africa ASGISA
• Targets 6 growth
• Equates to 4.2 electricity growth per year
• On 35 473MW 2006 this is 1 531 MW per year

We need to add 1 500 MW to the grid annually to
keep pace with growth or we need to take peak
load out and..
We need to grow the reserve margin
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Every three years we need one of these
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At What Price?

• The old rule of thumb was
• US 1-million / MW of installed capacity
• Now modified to some
• US 1.2-million / MW
• Taking global commodity shortages and capacity
  constraints into account
• Eskom press release
• R 65-billion for Medupi 4200MW
• At R 7/US this is US 2.2-million/MW
• Expects first unit in operation by 2011

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DSM Targets

• Achieve and sustain 3,000 MW of Demand Management
  savings on peak by 2012 and proportionally higher
  energy savings across the consumption profile.
• Support forecasted economic growth alongside the
  capacity expansion drive by freeing up additional
  capacity.

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DSM DMP Potential 2007 - 2012
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Power Alert
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(No Transcript)
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Power Alert

• Has been rolled out Nationally
• Following three regions
• Western Cape
• KwaZulu Natal
• Eastern Cape
• On National TV from 1 May to 31 Oct

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Government Energy Efficiency Strategy of South
Africa
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Targets

• Industry and Mining 15 final energy demand
  reduction
• Power Generation 15 reduction in parasitic
  electrical usage
• Commercial and Public Sector Buildings 15
  final energy demand reduction
• Residential sector 10 final energy demand
  reduction
• Transport sector 9 final energy demand
  reduction
• Overall target 12

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Energy Efficiency Accord
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Accord

• Industry signatories acknowledge the target of a
• national final energy demand reduction of 12 by
• 2015, expressed as a percentage reduction against
  the
• projected national energy use in 2015 and a final
• energy demand reduction for the industry and mini
  
• sector as a whole, of 15 by 2015, .

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Accord

• Industry
• Industry signatories agree to collaborate with
  each other and Government to
• promote the development of sector specific
  strategies and targets
• promote the use of Demand Side Management
  contracts
• develop common reporting requirements for energy
  usage from all energy sources, taking into
  account, where possible, existing internationally
  recognised protocols define industry-specific
  projected energy use in the future, based on
  Business-as-usual (BAU) growth expectations

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Accord

• Agree on 2000 as the baseline year against which
  performance will be measured
• Establish methodologies that will allow the
  baseline quantification for energy use/intensity
  in various subsectors
• Establish methodologies to take into account
  increased production so that the pursuit of
  improved energy efficiency does not hamper
  industrial growth
• Develop a generic energy auditing protocol that
  can be adapted for use by the individual sector
  and company signatories

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Energy Efficiency Accord
No !!!

• What does it mean?
• Quantification of savings

A
Energy Use
B
A/B 15
Years
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Energy Efficiency Accord
Yes !!!

• What does it mean?
• Quantification of savings

A
B
Energy Use
2015
2000
A/B 15
Years
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Accord Requirements

• Government Requirements Report on
• Energy savings
• Emission savings
• Energy supply conversion to renewable energy
• New renewable energy use
• Signatory Requirements
• Energy savings
• Emission savings
• Cost savings
• Financial performance
• Should be compared against the 2000 baseline

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Measurement and Verification
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Measurement and VerificationvsMonitoring
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MV is Measure not Monitor

• Measurement of Savings is metering and analysis
  to determine savings
• Monitoring of Savings is evaluating and
  reacting to savings

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Measure?

• Savings are the absence of energy use.
• We can not measure what we do not have.
• We do not measure savings.
• We do measure energy use.
• We analyze measured energy use to determine what
  savings are.

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MV Rationale
Energy savings (Baseline energy use)
(Post-implementation energy use)
Adjustments
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MV Rationale

• Baseline must represent energy demand and
  consumption for system as it was operational and
  sustained prior to the intervention.
• Must be accurate, dynamic, transparent,
  acceptable to stakeholders.

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Energy Management Stages
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Energy Audit Stages
IDENTIFY ENERGY SOURCES AND COSTS
ESTABLISH PROFILE OF ENERGY USE AND INTENSITY
COMPILE ENERGY USE INVENTORY
ESTABLISH ENERGY USE PATTERNS
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
IDENTIFY ENERGY SAVING OPPORTUNITIES
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MV Project Stages
SCOPING STUDY
DEVELOP MV PLAN
Refine MV Plan
No
Did you get BUY-IN?
Yes
MV BASELINE
MV Project Stages
Refine MV Baseline
No
Did you get BUY-IN?
POST-IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT
Yes
PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
MV PERFORMANCE TRACKING MONTHLY- AND ANNUAL
SAVINGS REPORTS BASELINE ADJUSTMENTS
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EE and MV Project Interaction
PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
MV Stages
ENERGY AUDIT ASSUMPTIONS
SCOPING REPORT
DEVELOP MV PLAN
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
Refine MV Plan
No
APPROVAL FOR FUNDING
Did you get BUY-IN?
Yes
MV BASELINE
EE Project Stages
DETAIL DESIGN
Refine MV Baseline
No
Did you get BUY-IN?
POST-IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT
Yes
IMPLEMENTATION
PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
COMISSIONING
MV PERFORMANCE TRACKING MONTHLY- AND ANNUAL
SAVINGS REPORTS BASELINE ADJUSTMENTS
OPERATION MAINTENANCE
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Do you believe you can get 40 savings?
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Case Study Paper Mill Specific Energy Use
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Case Study Paper Mill Purchased Energy
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Conclusions

• Global warming has become a Global Risk
• Oil and Fuel prices are expected to increase
• Power Supply problems in SA will not be solved
  within the near future
• South Africas historically low energy prices are
  something of the past
• International competitiveness will force SA
  industries to become more efficient

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Thank You

• LJ Grobler
• Tel [phone]
• Email lj_at_energycybernetics.com