NORTH AFRICA TEAM

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AIACC Project Climate Change Vulnerability and
Adaptation, Trieste, Italy, 3-15 June 2002
Assessment of impact, adaptation and
vulnerability in North Africa
NORTH AFRICA TEAM

• Introduction
• Where ?
• When ?
• How ?

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National case studies in North Africa

• Where ?

75 (arid, semi arid)
87 (arid, semi arid)
Tunisia
Marocco
Egypt
95 (arid)

• SETTAT Province
• Low and variable production
• Dry land agriculture
• Low precipitation
• High climate variability
• Drought damage
• High pop increase

• CENTER REGION
• Low and variable production
• High pop increase
• Dry land agriculture
• Low precipitation
• High evaporation water deficit
• High RR var. (30mm, 215mm)
• Drough may occure in 1 year out of 3 or out of 4.

• NILE DELTA
• High irrigated production
• Extreme urban water and land use conflicts
• Small holders
• Urban and land use water conflicts
• High pop increase

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Rainfed agriculture
rainfed from total
Cereals
FruitTrees
Over 80 of total water consumption used by
agricuttural activities.
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Country level Crop responses of raiffed in
Tunisia
Effect of irrigation
Olive trees production
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How ?
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S.H. Example for Tunisia
STs Ag.
Small Farmers (80)
Extension service
Project
Regional Policy makers (CRDA)
Decisions
Technical Policy makers DGPA, UTAP, DGRE
Other ag. (water supp.)
Central Policy maker (Ministry of agriculture)
National commissions
Final report (results)
Stakeholders (Workshop?)
Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya
Mauritania Other AIACC projects.
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Adaptation policies I

• Water resources management
• - Changing system of water delivery and control
• - Provide farmers with guidance on crop water
  management
• - Provide incentives to avoid excessive water use
• - Water mobilization
• - Use of new water resources (Waste water,
• geothermal water, saline water, drainage
  water)
• - Increasing water use efficiency
• - Etc

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Adaptation policies II

• Agriculture management
• - Crop liberalization (Egypt)
• - Selection of cultivars(Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)
• - Planting date (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)
• - Soil mulch
• - Inter-cropping (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)
• - Increasing of agriculture area (Tunisia and
  Morocco)
• - Use of new techniques
• etc

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Adaptation policies III

• Trading
• - Trading intra country
• Trading inter regions
• - International trade

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North Africa AIACC Project Outcomes

• Linking Stakeholders-Adaptation-Scenarios-Vulnerab
  ility
• Matrix on current and future risk of adverse
  effects of climate
• Mapped index derived form a matrix that includes
  climate change, impacts, and adaptive capacity

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MODELS Defining key questions

• What components of the farming system are
  particularly vulnerable, and may thus require
  special attention? CROP MODELS (e.g., DSSAT)
• Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress
  of changes in water supply/demand? IRRIGATION
  MODELS (e.g., CROPWAT)
• Will climate significantly affect national
  agriculture? MODEL INTEGRATION GIS INTEGRATION
  (e.g., DERIVING RESPONSE FUNCTIONS)

We have to be very careful with using model in
our region because of the high variability
(climate, soil, farmers behaviors)