Challenges of Future ATM

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Introduction

• IFALPA International Federation of Air Line
  Pilots Associations
• Founded in 1948 with 13 Member Associations
• Today it represents more than 120,000 pilots in
  near 100 countries globally.
• The Global Voice of Pilots.

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Overview

• Challenge The Human Factor
• Challenge Flexibility and
  Dynamic Reaction
• Challenge Buffers and Margins

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What is Future ATM?
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Industry ATM TRANSITION ROADMAP


Note Blocks left of the baseline indicate
implementation has already begun.
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Global Harmonization

• Everyone promises it

• The reality is different
• An example
• CPDLC procedures message sets

• The only (?) truly globalreference ICAO

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ICAO Future ATM

• Doc 9854

Global Air Navigation Plan for CNS/ATM
Systems Doc 9750
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Challenge Human Factor

• IFATS Innovative Future Air Transport System
  Concept

• postulates that an extremely automated air
  transport system - without pilots and controllers
  - would be more efficient and safer at the same
  time than the current ATM System.

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Challenge Human Factor

• Is automation per se a more efficient and safer
  modus operandi than a system architecture which
  uses the capabilities of the human to its best?
• In reality, to achieve generally accepted low
  probability levels for some RNP approach
  operations, the only solution is Mitigation by
  procedures. Mitigation to an extent that some
  members of certification authorities feel uneasy
  about it.
• Extreme automation will solve everything,
  safer?
• This type of presumption cannot be accepted from
  scientific organisations per se it must be
  proven!

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Challenge Human Factor

• The Human Roll
• Mitigate shortcomings in Technology with
  Operational Procedures?
• Special Purpose Codes in ADS-B (NRA)

Unlawful interference 7500
Generic Emergency Flag
RCF 7600
Emergency 7700
SPI/IDENT
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Challenge Human Factor

• Our position your position?
• Future system development should be based on
  identified operational requirements.
• Consequential system functions should then be
  realized by applying the optimum level of
  automation.
• The pilot community is ready to support the
  scientific groups in identifying this optimum
  level of automation but we are not going to
  accept extreme automation without any type of
  human control as a white sheet starting point.

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ICAO OCD 2.5.4

• There will be dynamic 4-D trajectory control
  and negotiated conflict-free trajectories.
• Is the qualification dynamic reflected in
  currently foreseen implementations of 4-D
  trajectory negotiation and control?

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Challenge Flexibility

• Any future system must be able to react timely
  and adequately to disturbances like late
  passengers / security of luggage / unforecast WX
  changes!
• Adequate dynamic negotiation and control requires
  appropriate communications and planning tools!

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Challenge Buffers Margins

• An example Lateral Navigation

• The 50ies 60ies ATS Route Air Corridor
• The 70ies 80iesVOR Route Structures
  Adherence to centre line required -ICAO Annex 2
  (3.6.2.1.1)
• The 90ies and onGPS input to navigation solution

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Challenge Buffers Margins

• Any accidental loss of vertical separation
  inevitably results in a critical situation, if
  not a collision, because of the extreme accuracy
  of GPS based navigation.

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IFALPA POLICY

• IFALPA believes that the availability of accurate
  airborne navigation systems with the capability
  to navigate automatically along lateral offset
  tracks should be used so as to reduce the
  collision risk in the case of possible loss of
  vertical separation in suitable ATS environments.

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IFALPA POLICY

• RNAV LATERAL OFFSET TRACKING
• Aircraft with navigation equipment certified and
  operated to P-RNAV standards at least RNP-1
  accuracy should be allowed and required to
  navigate offset one nautical mile right of
  centerline.
• Note This policy is not in opposition to the
  current ICAO SLOP Guidance. In fact, based on
  this earlier policy statement IFALPA had
  supported the development of the ICAO provisions,
  and calls now for the extension of its
  applicability to areas other than oceanic and
  remote continental.
• On Precision RNAV routes in RNP-1 en-route
  airspace, to allow for safe offset tracking, the
  offset value should be taken into account when
  establishing such routes.

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IFALPA POLICY

• GNSS EMBEDDED DEFAULT LATERAL OFFSET
• Furthermore, because of the high accuracy and
  increased risk of head-on collision invoked by
  GNSS, to mitigate this risk IFALPA requires that
  GNSS referenced airborne navigation systems have
  an embedded default lateral offset.
• This embedded offset, residing in whichever part
  of the equipment calculates the tracking, should
  be
• large enough to reduce the risk of head-on
  GNSS-to-GNSS collisions, and
• yet be small enough to be insignificant to the
  pilots, and the ATC system, in en-route and
  terminal procedures.

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The Tragic Truth

• There have been mid-air collisions that probably
  could have been averted if offset tracking had
  been applied!

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62nd IFALPA Conference Statement

• IFALPA calls for urgent implementation of
  Strategic Lateral Offset Procedures
• All States and ICAO Planning and Implementation
  Regional Groups (PIRGs) to authorize the ICAO
  SLOP in all appropriate airspaces at the earliest
  opportunity, and
• ICAO to support States and PIRGs in their efforts
  to implement SLOP, and
• ICAO to continue developing advanced offset
  tracking procedures (such as the embedded lateral
  offset concept).

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Strategy

• Relax Annex 2 (3.6.2.1.1), the on centre line
  rule, to allow offset tracking as reasonable in
  the circumstances
• Recognize lateral offset tracking and cater for
  it in airspace design and air traffic management
  functions of any future ATM system

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4D Trajectories

• Remember ICAO OCD 2.5.4
• There will be dynamic 4-D trajectory control
  and negotiated conflict-free trajectories.

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4D Trajectories

• Can a conflict-free trajectory be calculated over
  several hours of flight?
• Disturbances as mentioned previously in the
  flexibility section - make such an extreme
  implementation unreasonable from an operational
  perspective.
• For example, it does not make sense to delay the
  departure of a flight by 30 seconds to resolve a
  predicted en-route conflict a couple of hours
  ahead, or to achieve a better arrival sequence.

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ATS Committee Position (1)

• 4D trajectories based advanced air traffic
  management is supported under the following two
  conditions
• 1) It must be recognized and accepted that
  the accuracy of the trajectory prediction
  will degrade with the extent of look ahead.
• Some people call this granularity, some
  others rather relate the control mechanisms to
  appropriate time horizons.

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ATS Committee Position(2)

• 2) The 4D clearance it self should always
  indicate the necessary compliance value,
  depending on the traffic situation.
• This may be called a type of breathing 4D
  definition or spacing requirement (in legacy
  terms).
• Note It is recognized that to achieve higher
  capacity in high demand situations, the
  user-preferred 4D trajectory will be subject to
  modifications through CDM.

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Evolution Breathing Compliance

• Adherence to speed in general is subject to a 5
  margin (ICAO Annex 2, 3.6.2.2).
• To achieve higher capacity, the application of
  the Mach number technique may be required.
• Temporary changes of speed, for example, when
  turbulence is encountered, require amendments to
  the clearance.
• In a future 4D environment, it should be obvious
  from the contract to what extent a deviation
  from the nominal target value is possible without
  creating a conflict with other traffic.
• It may even be advantageous to base the overall
  planning on reasonable buffer margins to reduce
  the communication and coordination workload when
  short-term deviations are required.

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IFATS 4D Trajectories

• A kind of breathing compliance is part of the
  IFATS program 4D trajectory management

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IFATS 4D Trajectories

• The individual aircraft operates within a
  freedom bubble, allowing reasonable trajectory
  and speed modifications without negotiating a
  new contract
• This allows maintaining variable, optimum Mach
  numbers, and reaction to unforeseen events to
  some degree.
• Separation from other traffic is effected by
  conflict-free outer safety bubbles

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Conclusion

• Global Harmonisation - needs to be achieved on
  System Planning level as well as during local /
  Regional implementations
• Automation not being a value per se
• Flexibility and ability for Dynamic Reaction
  as properties of ATM
• Recognition of the benefits of appropriate
  buffers and margins for both
• Safety, and
• Stability of Operation

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Gracias

• Captain Miguel Marín
• IFALPA ATS Committee Chairmanmiguel_at_emarin.org