Social Benefits of Higher Education in Kentucky

1
The Transition from High School in 1998
Source KY Department of Education, Transition to
Adult Life Report, 1998
2
Transition to College, by Education Region, 1998
58
50
50
59
48
56
54
45
Source KDE
3
Understanding Variations in Postsecondary
Outcomes

• 1998 data show wide variation in college-going
  rates among high schools
• Highest95 percent
• Lowest17 percent
• Average about 53 percent
• Used multiple regression analysis
• To better understand independent effects of
  variables, such as
• Educational, income, rural-urban, employment
  status of the area
• Size, spending levels, percent receiving free
  lunches, CATs performance, teacher experience of
  the school
• To predict college-going rates
• To identify over- and under-achievers

4
Examples of Our Findings . . .

• Model predicts a college-going rate of 40 percent
  for one high school . . . the actual going rate
  was nearly 70 percent
• Model predicts a college-going rate of 45 percent
  for one high school . . . the actual going rate
  was under 30 percent
• Significance of variables as predictors
• CATs (Core Content) performance ()
• Education level of county/zip code ()
• Free/reduced lunch (-)
• Parent-teacher conference participation
• Postsecondary institution in county ()
• Size of enrollment (-)
• Spending per pupil
• Teacher experience
• Unemployment rate in county ()
• Urban-rural (mixed)

5
What did we learn?

• Programmatic responses get results
• AVID model
• Peer tutoring
• Crisis intervention
• Diverse outcomes-oriented extracurricular
  activities a positive influence
• Site visits to colleges
• Good teachers make a difference . . .
• Caring, compassionate
• Know subject matter
• Focused on student comprehension
• No favorites approach

• School leadership matters
• Quality
• Stability
• School culture is critical
• Obsessive focus on discipline alienates students,
  undermines trust
• High expectations get results
• Strong guidance counseling systems help leverage
  higher college-going rates . . .
• Motivation
• Information
• High levels of student knowledge about college
  linked to higher performance

6
What did we learn?

• Individualized instruction exists largely on
  paper
• Presence of mentors from diverse backgrounds
  appears to have positive effect
• Student perceptions may affect outcomes
• Affordability of college
• Possibility of college
• Indifference of teachers, parents, etc.
• Condition of local economy has an inverse
  relationship to college-going rates
• Local presence of college appears a positive
  factor

• Parental/community involvement appears to play
  positive role
• Lack of school resources may affect outcomes
• Appealing physical environment associated with
  positive results
• Demands of work likely affecting academics
  postsecondary choices
• Principals believe students have no incentive to
  perform well on CATs, and KEES criteria is
  discouraging AP course-taking

7
Research Questions Selection Criteria

• Research questions
• Does teaching out of field affect college-going
  rates?
• Are the academic histories of teachers linked to
  the college-going rates of their students?
• Selected high schools for study based on findings
  from multiple regression analysis
• Under-performer selected from schools sending far
  lower percentage of students to college than
  model predicted
• Over-performer selected from schools sending much
  higher percentage of students to college than
  model predicted

8
Methodology

• Examine teacher certification files
• Courses Taught in 1999-2000
• Certification status
• Academic preparation
• GPA
• Course work
• Any other interesting factors that arise
• Work in progress

9
Our Findings
GPA Range Under-performer
Over-performer Undergraduate 2.1 - 4.0
2.2 - 4.0Graduate 2.7 - 4.0 2.5 -
4.0Average GPAUndergraduate 2.9
2.7Undergraduate Major 3.1
3.0Undergraduate Minor 2.9
3.0Graduate 3.6
3.5Range of Years Teaching 1962 - 2000 1966
- 1999 Average Number of Years
12.3 12 Percent Teaching In-Field
90 97
10
Preliminary Conclusions

• Find no significant differences in academic
  histories of teachers from over- and
  under-performing schools
• Find no significant differences in extent of
  teacher experience
• Find that those teaching out-of-field are
  certified for
• Middle school
• Elementary special education

11
Preliminary Conclusions

• Level of regional attachmentsocial capital may
  be most significant factor
• Majority of teachers in over-performer school
• Graduates of the high school
• Attended a regional community college
• Attended a regional university
• Majority of teachers in under-performer school
• Graduates of other high schools
• Graduates of various colleges/universities

12
Percent of Adults Age 25 and older with a
Bachelor's Degree or Higher, KY (3 year moving
average) and US, 1978-1999
13
Monetary Returns to Education
Source Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research
Center analysis of Current Population Survey data
14
Economic Benefits of Going to College

• Private Economic
• Higher Salaries and Benefits
• Employment
• Higher Savings Levels
• Improved Working Conditions
• Personal/Professional Mobility

• Public Economic
• Increased Tax Revenues
• Greater Productivity
• Increased Consumption
• Increased Workforce Flexibility
• Decreased Reliance on Government Financial
  Support

Source Institute of Higher Education Policy
15
Social Benefits of Going to College

• Private Social
• Improved Health/Life Expectancy
• Improved Quality of Life for Offspring
• Better Consumer Decision Making
• Increased Personal Status
• More Hobbies, Leisure Activities

• Public Social
• Reduced Incarceration and Crime Rates
• Increased Volunteerism and Charitable Giving
• Increased Quality of Civic Life
• Social Cohesion/Appreciation of Diversity
• Improved Ability to Adapt to and Use Technology

Source Institute of Higher Education Policy
16
Private Economic Benefits of Educational
Attainment

• Berger and Black, 1993
• Benefit-cost analysis using one benefit private
  earnings
• 6.9 billion return on General Fund investment of
  672 million
• Annual Return as of General Fund Exp 186

Present Value of Returns, Compared to High
School, by Degree Level and Gender, 1993 (in
1,000s)
17
Distribution of Federal Individual Income Taxes
Paid, by Educational Attainment of Head of
Household, 1970 to 1997, U.S.
Source Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2000
18
Average Estimated 1991 Annual Federal Income
Taxes by Education Level for 30-Year-Old Men and
Women, US
Source Krop, 1998
19
Public Economic Benefits of Higher Education
20
Expected Value of Annual Per-Person Costs of
Welfare for Women, by Education and Age, 1996
Source Wave 1 of 1996 Survey of Income and
Program Participation, US Census Bureau
21
Estimated Predicted and Actual Probability that
a Kentuckian Smoked in Last 30 Days, by
Educational Attainment Level, 2000
Source 2000 Kentucky Survey, UK Survey Research
Center
22
Smoking Costs in Kentucky

• Annual health care expenditures in Kentucky
  directly related to tobacco use 1.0 billion
• Residents state and federal tax burden caused by
  tobacco-related health costs 520 million
• Kentucky government Medicaid payments directly
  related to tobacco use 200 million

23
Predicted Hours and Value of Volunteerism by
Education Level, 2000
Source 2000 Kentucky Survey, UK Survey Research
Center
24
Predicted Probability of Access to Home Computer
and Network Use by Education Level, 1998
Source Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research
Center analysis of Current Population Survey Data
25
Predicted Probability of Starting a Business by
Educational Attainment, 1998
Source 1998 Kentucky Survey, UK Survey
Research Center
26
Predicted Probability of Reading Every Day to
Children Under 8, by Educational Attainment,
1998, 2000
Source 1998 and 2000 Kentucky Survey, UK Survey
Research Center
27
Predicted Average Health Related Quality of Life
Scores by Educational Attainment, 1997
Source UK Survey Research Center, 1997
Kentucky Health Survey
28
General Fund Support for Postsecondary Education
in Kentucky, 1998
29
General Fund Support Per Full-Time Equivalent
Student at Kentuckys 4-Year Institutions, 1998

• One Year 4,708
• NPV of Four Years 17,090
• Note Does not include medical, agriculture,
  research, public service, or debt service
  support, support of CPE and KHEAA or 2 year
  institutions.

Source Council on Postsecondary Education
30
Net Present Value of Lifetime Benefits of
Increasing Education from High School Graduate
to College Graduate, by Type
31
Total Benefits and Returns to Investment in
Postsecondary Education