Profiles and Projections Latino Children Today and Tomorrow

1
Profiles and ProjectionsLatino Children Today
and Tomorrow

• Linda A. Jacobsen
• Population Reference Bureau
• NCLR Symposium
• October 22, 2009

2
The Number and Share of All Children Who Are
Latino Is Growing Rapidly
Source U.S. Census Bureau and National Center
for Health Statistics
3
Components of Population Change 2007-2008
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
4
Latino Women Average about Three Children
Source National Center for Health Statistics
5
Distribution of Children by Race and Ethnicity
1990, 2008, and 2030
Non-Hispanic. Estimates for 2008 and 2030 for
Whites, Blacks and Others are for those who
identify with only one race. Source U.S. Census
Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics
6
In 1990, Latino Children Were Primarily
Concentrated in the Southwest and Florida
Source PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census
Bureau, 1990 Decennial Census.
7
Today, Latinos Make Up an Increasing Share of
Children in the Midwest and Southeast
Source PRB analysis of data from U.S. Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, National
Center for Health Statistics Bridged-Race
Vintage 2008 Postcensal Estimates, prepared in
collaboration with U.S. Census Bureau.
8
Latino Youth Have Significant Potential to
Contribute to their Communities and the U.S.

• 34 percent of Latinos are under age 18
• Most children are born in the U.S. and most are
  U.S. citizens (9 in 10)
• Strong families almost two-thirds (66) live
  with two parents

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Latino Children and Youth Also Face Some
Significant Challenges

• Economic Security
• Education
• Health
• Language Barriers

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Economic Security

• More than one-fourth live in poverty
• Three-fifths (60) live in low-income families
  (below 200 of poverty)

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Education

• More than one-fourth of Latino 4 year-olds are
  not enrolled in early childhood education
  programs
• Only 55 percent of ninth graders graduate from
  high school on time

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Health

• One in five (19) do not have health insurance
• Among children ages 10 to 17, about 4 in every 10
  (41) are overweight or obese

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Language Barriers

• One-fourth live in linguistically isolated
  households
• Almost one-fifth (18) have difficulty speaking
  English

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If These Challenges are not Addressed, What Are
the Implications?

• Two Possible Scenarios
• Current risk factors (rates) remain unchanged
  from now until 2030
• Current risk factors (rates) change between now
  and 2030

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Latino Children Will Make Up a Larger Share of
All Children in High Risk Groups

• Scenario One Same Rates In 2030
• Share Today Share in 2030
• In poverty 32 44
• Low-income families 31 44
• Linguistically isolated 65 74
• Overweight or obese 22 37
• No health insurance 42 56

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Latino Child Poverty Declined in the 1990s, But
Has Risen Again in Recent Years
Source PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census
Bureau.
17
Scenario Two Potential Changes

• Child Poverty Rate
• What if it rose to 1990 level of 38 percent?
• Share of Children Overweight/Obese
• What if it increases by an additional 3
  percentage points to 44 percent?
• Share of Children without Health Insurance
• What if it decreases by an additional 2
  percentage points to 17 percent?

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How Many Latino Children Could be Affected?

• Today 2030
• In poverty 4.1 10.2
• Overweight or obese 2.2 5.2
• No health insurance 2.7 4.6
• In millions

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Stay Tuned in 2010!

• NCLR State-Level Report
• Regional Variations
• in Well-Being and
• Key Trends Since 2000