Comprehensive Particulate Matter Modeling: A One Atmosphere Approach

1
Evaluation of CMAQ Sensitivities for VISTAS Air
Quality Modeling
James W. Boylan Georgia Department of Natural
Resources (VISTA Technical Lead for Air Quality
Modeling) National RPO Meeting St. Louis,
MO November 5, 2003
2
Outline

• VISTAS Phase I Modeling
• Objectives
• Modeling Team
• Literature Review
• Initial Model Configuration
• CMAQ Sensitivity Results
• Schedule for Deliverables
• VISTAS Phase II Modeling Plans

3
Phase I Modeling Objectives

• Collect appropriate monitoring data
• Model Performance Evaluation
• Emissions Modeling for 3 episodes SMOKE
• Air Quality Modeling for 3 episodes CMAQ
• Recommend Initial Model Configuration
• Perform Model Configuration Sensitivity Runs
• Recommend Optimal Model Configuration
• Modeling Protocol Document
• Quality Assurance Plan
• Technical Web Site
• http//pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/

4
Emission and AQ Modeling Team

• Environ/UCR/AG Air Quality Modeling Team
• All CMAQ model performance plots presented here
  created by AQ Modeling Team
• Environ International Corporation
• Mr. Ralph Morris (Project Manager and
  Co-Principal Investigator)
• Dr. Greg Yarwood, Dr. Gerard Mansell, Mr. Chris
  Emery, Dr. Bongyoung Koo
• University of California Riverside
• Dr. Gail Tonnesen (Co-Principal Investigator)
• Dr. Tony Wexler, Dr. Bill Carter, Dr. Zion Wang,
  Dr. Chao-Jung Chien
• Alpine Geophysics, LLC
• Dr. Tom Tesche (Co-Principal Investigator)
• Ms. Cyndi Loomis, Mr. Dennis McNally, Mr. Jim
  Wilkinson, Mr. Greg Stella

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Model Domain and Episodes

• Modeling Domain
• 36 km grid resolution (149 x 113)
• 12 km grid resolution (169 x 178)
• 19 vertical layers (collapsed from 34 MM5 layers)
• Modeling Episodes
• January 1 - 20, 2002 (20 episode days ramp-up
  days)
• July 13 - 27, 2001 (15 episode days ramp-up
  days)
• July 13 - 21, 1999 (9 episode days ramp-up
  days)

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Literature Review Reports

• Review and Assessment of Available Ambient Air
  Quality Data to Support Modeling and Modeling
  Performance Evaluation for the Three VISTAS Phase
  I Episodes - Revised 07/22/03
• AQS, PAMS, IMPROVE, SEARCH, STN, NADP, CASTNET,
  PM Supersites, TVA Measurement
  Network, ASACA, FAQS, NARSTO SOS99 Aircraft Data
• http//pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/reports/VISTAS_Task
  _3_072203.pdf
• Review of Model Sensitivity Simulations and
  Recommendation of Initial CMAQ Model
  Configuration and Sensitivity Tests - Revised
  07/25/03
• Evaluation of other PM modeling studies
• SAMI, WRAP, BRAVO, MRPO, Southeast PM Modeling
  Study, EPA, CRC, CCOS/SCOS
• Recommendations for additional air quality
  sensitivity simulations
• Model performance metrics and goals
• http//pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/reports/VISTAS_Task
  4a_Report.pdf

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Initial Model Configuration

• CMAQ Version 4.3
• Horizontal Advection and Vertical Advection
• Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM)
• Gas-Phase Chemistry and Solver
• CB-IV with MEBI/Hertel
• Aerosol Chemistry
• AE3/ISORROPIA/SORGAM
• Aqueous-Phase Chemistry
• RADM
• Dry Deposition
• Pleim-Xiu
• MM5 Configuration and Processing
• Pleim-Xiu/ACM Soil/PBL models with MCIP2.2 Pass
  Through
• SMOKE Emissions
• NEI 1999 v2 with CMU NH3 Adjustments
• http//pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/emis.shtml

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CMAQ Sensitivity Tests

1. Fugitive Dust Transport Factor
2. Number of Vertical Layers
3. Vertical Diffusivity - Minimum Kz
4. Ammonia Emissions
5. Mexican/Canadian Emissions
6. Boundary Conditions
7. Boundary Layer Heights Minimum PBLs
8. Alternative MM5 Configuration
9. Aerosol Mass Conservation
10. SAPRC-99 Chemistry
11. CB-2002 Chemistry
12. CMAQAIM Aerosol Module
13. CAMx Air Quality Model

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CMAQ Sensitivity Tests (cont.)

• Some sensitivities performed with August 2003
  pre-release version of CMAQ and some done with
  official September 2003 release
• Benchmark comparison showed minimal differences
• Evaluated sensitivity case against a basecase
  reference
• Sensitivity run may become new basecase for
  comparison of future sensitivity runs
• All sensitivities performed on 36 km grid
• Subset of sensitivities performed on 12 km grid
• Most sensitivities will be performed on all three
  episodes
• Some on just the winter episode and a summer
  episode

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Criteria for Selecting Final Model Configuration

• Model performance evaluation
• Speciated Fine PM concentrations
• Weekly average (CASTNET)
• Daily average (IMPROVE, STN, SEARCH)
• Hourly (SEARCH, PM Supersites)
• Gaseous concentrations (AQS, PAMS)
• Wet Deposition mass fluxes and concentrations
  (NADP)
• Scientific acceptability
• Computational resources

14
Air Quality Modeling

• Running CMAQ (v4.3) using Initial Model
  Configuration presented earlier
• First January 2002 simulation started on 08/22/03
• Running on 12 Linux 1.7 GHz CPUs in parallel.
• 36 km grid (1 hour elapsed time/model day)
• 12 km grid (12 hours elapsed time/model day)
• Have performed 11 CMAQ sensitivity experiments on
  the 36 km grid
• CMAQ version comparison (pre-release vs. official
  release)
• First July 1999 simulation started on 09/18/03
• Have performed initial CMAQ simulation (36 km)
• Currently running CMAQ sensitivity experiments on
  the 36 km grid
• First July 2001 simulation started in early
  November.

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Summary of Model Performance

• January 2002 Episode
• Sulfate, Elemental Carbon, Organic Carbon, and
  Coarse Mass in the Ball Park
• Large Nitrate Overestimation
• Ammonia Emissions (Magnitude and Temporal
  Distribution)?
• Dry Deposition? Chemistry? Nighttime Mixing?
  Others?
• Large Soil (PMFINE) Overestimation
• Emissions (Magnitude and Speciation)?
• Mixing (PBL Heights)? Others?
• July 1999 Episode
• Sulfate, Elemental Carbon, Organic Carbon, and
  Coarse Mass in the Ball Park
• Nitrate Underestimation
• Soil (PMFINE) Overestimation

16
Fugitive Dust Transport FactorFDTF0.25 vs.
FDTF1.00
IMPROVE Soils IMPROVE CM
17
Coarse Mass at GRSM
IMPROVE Observations, FDTF1.0, FDTF0.25
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Soils at GRSM
IMPROVE Observations, FDTF1.0, FDTF0.25
19
Fugitive Dust Transport FactorJuly 1999 Episode
(FDTF0.05)
IMPROVE Soils IMPROVE CM
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Soils Evaluation

• Composition of IMPROVE and CMAQ Soils
• IMPROVE Soils 2.2Al 2.49Si 1.63Ca
  2.42Fe 1.94Ti
• CMAQ As Br Ca Chl Cl Cr Cu K Mg
  Mn Mo N2 Na Ni P Rb Se Si Sr
  V Zn Zr IMPROVE Soils misclassified EC,
  OC, SO4, and NO3
• Misclassification of emissions from large source
  categories into PMFINE
• Fires, Fuel Combustion, Industrial Processes,
  Fugitive Dust
• e.g., Forest Wildfires total (SCC2810001000) in
  Alabama
• PMFINE 71.80 tons/day
• PEC0, POA0, PNO30, and PSO40
• Fugitive Dust 27 of PMFINE in VISTAS states
• CMAQ soils may contain as much as 80 mass that
  should not be included in the comparison to
  IMPROVE soils
• Mixing (PBL heights)?

21
CMAQ Vertical Layers 34 Layers vs. 19 Layers
IMPROVE SO4 IMPROVE NO3
22
CMAQ Vertical Layers 34 Layers vs. 19 Layers
IMPROVE OC IMPROVE EC
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Vertical Diffusivity Kz_min

• Decreasing Kz_min ? decreases mixing
• Important at nighttime
• CMAQ 1.0 m2/s
• REMSAD 0.1 m2/s
• CAMx 0.1 m2/s or variable (0.1 1.0 m2/s
  depending on land cover)
• Kz_min 1.0 m2/s vs. Kz_min 0.1 m2/s

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Vertical Diffusivity Kz_min1.0 vs. Kz_min0.1
IMPROVE SO4 IMPROVE NO3
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Vertical Diffusivity Kz_min1.0 vs. Kz_min0.1
IMPROVE OC IMPROVE EC
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Vertical Diffusivity Kz_min1.0 vs. Kz_min0.1
IMPROVE CM IMPROVE Soils
27
Ammonia Emissions NH350 vs. NH3100
IMPROVE SO4 IMPROVE NO3
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Ammonia Emissions NH350(40/90) vs. NH350
IMPROVE SO4 IMPROVE NO3
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Boundary Conditions

• Global Chemical Transport Model
• GEOS-CHEM run by Daniel Jacob at Harvard
• 2001 seasonal (3 month) average concentrations
  for speciated PM and some gaseous species
• SO2, O3, HNO3, H2O2, NH3, ASO4J, ASO4I
• GEOS-CHEM sulfate was assumed to be 90 aitken
  and 10 accumulation mode (similar to CMAQ
  defaults)
• May Examine Ultra-Clean BCs

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Boundary Conditions GEOS-CHEM vs. EPA/TVA
IMPROVE SO4 IMPROVE NO3
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Boundary Layer Heights

• Large PBL holes produced by MM5
• PBL lt 50 m in mid afternoon
• Set Minimum PBLs
• Diurnal Kz profiles adjusted to simulate mixing
  in areas with PBL holes

Nighttime min. Daytime min. Winter 109
m (layer 3) 294 m (layer 6) Summer 109 m
(layer 3) 1071 m (layer 12)
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PBL Height _at_ 3pm EST (01/05/02)
33
Boundary Layer Heights PBL_MM5 vs. PBL_min
IMPROVE SO4 IMPROVE NO3
34
Boundary Layer Heights PBL_MM5 vs. PBL_min
IMPROVE OC IMPROVE EC
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Boundary Layer Heights PBL_MM5 vs. PBL_min
IMPROVE Soils IMPROVE CM
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Alternative MM5 Meteorology

• Dry Deposition Scheme
• P-X vs. Wesley
• Alternative MM5
• P-X vs. NOAH-ETA-MY
• Emissions were NOT reprocessed

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Dry Deposition Scheme P-X vs. Wesley
IMPROVE SO4 IMPROVE NO3
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MM5 Meteorology P-X vs. NOAH-ETA-MY
IMPROVE SO4 IMPROVE NO3
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MM5 Meteorology P-X vs. NOAH-ETA-MY
IMPROVE OC IMPROVE EC
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MM5 Meteorology P-X vs. NOAH-ETA-MY
IMPROVE Soils IMPROVE CM
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Additional Sensitivities

• Aerosol Mass Conservation
• Sulfate, Oxidized Nitrogen, Reduced Nitrogen
• Georgia Tech patch
• SAPRC-99 Chemistry
• Reprocess Emissions
• CB4-2002 Chemistry
• Reprocess Emissions
• CMAQ - AIM
• Sectional Approach
• Reprocess PM emissions
• CAMx Sensitivity
• Using same IC/BCs, emissions, and a model
  configuration as close as possible to the optimal
  CMAQ configuration

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Current Status of Sensitivity Schedule(January
2002 Episode)
Name Run Stat Grid (km) Num Vert Lays Kz Min (m2/s) Fug Trans Fract NH3 Emis Red NH3 Profile Mex Can Emis Min PBL BCs Global Model Wesl Dry Dep MM5 ETA MY Aero Mass Cons
TF1.00 C 36 19 0.1 1.00 - - - - - - - -
34 Lays C 36 34 0.1 1.00 - - - - - - - -
TF0.25 C 36 19 0.1 0.25 - - - - - - - -
Kz1.0 C 36 19 1.0 0.25 - - - - - - - -
NH350 C 36 19 0.1 0.25 50 - - - - - - -
12 km C 12 19 0.1 0.25 50 - - - - - - -
NH3 Prof C 36 19 0.1 0.25 50 Yes - - - - - -
MX/CA C 36 19 0.1 0.25 50 - Yes - - - - -
PBL C 36 19 0.1 0.25 50 - Yes Yes - - - -
GEOS C 36 19 0.1 0.25 50 - Yes - Yes - - -
Wesley C 36 19 0.1 0.25 50 - Yes - Yes Yes - -
ETA-MY C 36 19 0.1 0.25 50 - Yes - Yes Yes Yes -
AERO P 36 19 0.1 0.25 50 - Yes - Yes - - Yes
Sens 12 P 36 19 0.1 0.25 50 No Yes Y/N Yes Y/N Y/N Y/N
Additional testing to follow 12 km grid,
SAPRC-99, CB-2002, CMAQ-AIM, CAMx
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Fractional Bias () - IMPROVE(January 2002
Episode)
Name PM 2.5 SO4 NO3 NH4 OC EC Soils CM bext
TF1.00 93.4 5.0 118.4 69.5 29.4 29.9 184.4 129.2 47.4
34 Lays 91.4 1.8 118.3 67.3 27.4 28.4 183.9 127.9 46.2
TF0.25 79.0 3.7 115.5 66.3 11.1 20.2 174.5 1.5 17.5
Kz1.0 68.8 -1.4 111.9 63.7 -17.0 -6.7 168.3 -4.7 0.1
NH350 62.6 -5.3 75.1 32.6 11.4 20.6 174.6 1.5 17.7
12 km - - - - - - - - -
NH3 Prof 61.6 -4.7 67.9 29.3 11.4 20.6 174.6 -13.7 17.7
MX/CA 58.3 -6.4 64.6 26.2 8.3 18.2 174.1 -7.3 29.6
PBL 44.1 -11.6 59.5 21.0 -19.3 -8.9 167.8 -7.3 21.3
GEOS 49.9 -27.8 53.2 9.8 6.1 18.1 174.1 -7.3 18.1
Wesley 67.8 -6.0 95.7 47.7 6.8 17.8 174.0 -7.3 43.3
ETA-MY 55.8 45.6 41.0 25.9 -9.8 3.5 168.5 -14.2 32.1
AERO - - - - - - - - -
Sens 12 - - - - - - - - -
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Fractional Error () - IMPROVE(January 2002
Episode)
Name PM 2.5 SO4 NO3 NH4 OC EC Soils CM bext
TF1.00 99 37 139 85 51 57 184 140 53
34 Lays 98 36 140 84 51 57 184 139 52
TF0.25 86 37 137 83 46 54 175 60 29
Kz1.0 78 37 136 81 41 44 168 58 21
NH350 71 39 112 61 46 54 175 60 29
12 km - - - - - - - - -
NH3 Prof 70 39 113 59 46 54 175 60 29
MX/CA 67 38 110 58 45 53 174 60 41
PBL 56 39 109 55 42 43 168 59 36
GEOS 60 47 102 54 44 53 174 60 36
Wesley 76 43 122 70 44 53 174 60 52
ETA-MY 66 59 84 61 43 53 169 61 44
AERO - - - - - - - - -
Sens 12 - - - - - - - - -
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VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling
Deliverables
Draft 08/18/03
Jan-Mar 2004 Define BART sources
June 2004 Identify BART controls
Aug 2003 Emissions Inventory Base 2002
Dec 2003 Revised Em Inv Base 2002
Mar 2004 Draft Em Inv 2018
July 2004 Revised State Em Inv Base 2002
Sept 2004 Revised Em Inv 2018
Oct-Dec 2004 Control Strategy Inventories
Dec 2003 Modeling Protocol
Sept 2004 Annual Base Year Model Runs
Dec 2004 Annual Run 2018
Nov 2003 Met, Em, AQ model testing 3 episodes
Jan 2005 Sensitivity Runs 2018 episodes
Jan-Jun 2005 Control Strategy Runs 2018
Oct 2004 Sensitivity Runs 2018 3 episodes
Apr 2004 DDM in CMAQ
July-Dec 2005 Observations Conclusions Recommenda
tions
Mar 2004 Select sensitivity episodes
Optional
Optional
State Regulatory Activities
After Jun 2005 Model Runs e.g. Power Plant
Turnover
Before Jun 2005 Other Inventory e.g. Power
Plant Turnover
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Phase II Modeling Plans

• Annual (12 month) simulations to support regional
  haze SIP development
• Will be modeling entire year of 2002 plus
  specific episodes in 2003
• Emissions and Air Quality Modeling
• AQ Modeling with Actual Baseyear Emissions
  (delivery Sept. 2004)
• Model Performance Evaluation
• AQ Modeling with Typical Baseyear Emissions
  (delivery Sept. 2004)
• Same assumptions for Seasonal Distributions as
  Projected Future Year Emissions (Point Sources,
  Fires, etc.) ? RRF
• AQ Modeling with Future Year (2018) Emissions
  (delivery Dec. 2004)
• AQ Modeling with Future Year (2018) Control
  Strategies (delivery June 2005)
• Final Report (delivery date December 2005)

47
VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling
Deliverables
Draft 08/18/03
Jan-Mar 2004 Define BART sources
June 2004 Identify BART controls
Aug 2003 Emissions Inventory Base 2002
Dec 2003 Revised Em Inv Base 2002
Mar 2004 Draft Em Inv 2018
July 2004 Revised State Em Inv Base 2002
Sept 2004 Revised Em Inv 2018
Oct-Dec 2004 Control Strategy Inventories
Dec 2003 Modeling Protocol
Sept 2004 Annual Base Year Model Runs
Dec 2004 Annual Run 2018
Nov 2003 Met, Em, AQ model testing 3 episodes
Jan 2005 Sensitivity Runs 2018 episodes
Jan-Jun 2005 Control Strategy Runs 2018
Oct 2004 Sensitivity Runs 2018 3 episodes
Apr 2004 DDM in CMAQ
July-Dec 2005 Observations Conclusions Recommenda
tions
Mar 2004 Select sensitivity episodes
Optional
Optional
State Regulatory Activities
After Jun 2005 Model Runs e.g. Power Plant
Turnover
Before Jun 2005 Other Inventory e.g. Power
Plant Turnover