The Triangular Relationship

1
The Triangular Relationship of US-China-Russia
and Chinese Foreign Policy Prof. Zhao Quansheng
American University, Washington
DC 2002 AsiaNet / Zhao Quansheng
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I The Nature of the Triangular Relationship
Parallel Triangles
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• Different from the bi-polar system existing
  during the Cold War

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• Different from the bi-polar system existing
  during the Cold War
• Parallel triangular relationships like
• Washington-Beijing-Tokyo

5

• Different from the bi-polar system existing
  during the Cold War
• Parallel triangular relationships like
• Washington-Beijing-Tokyo
• Moscow-Delhi-Beijing

6

• Different from the bi-polar system existing
  during the Cold War
• Parallel triangular relationships like
• Washington-Beijing-Tokyo
• Moscow-Delhi-Beijing
• Washingtons ever more dominating role in the
  worlds strategic politics present in most major
  international issues

7

• Different from the bi-polar system existing
  during the Cold War
• Parallel triangular relationships like
• Washington-Beijing-Tokyo
• Moscow-Delhi-Beijing
• Washingtons ever more dominating role in the
  worlds strategic politics present in most major
  international issues
• Two ups two downs system US and China upwards,
  Russia and Japan downwards in political, economic
  and strategic matters

8

• Different from the bi-polar system existing
  during the Cold War
• Parallel triangular relationships like
• Washington-Beijing-Tokyo
• Moscow-Delhi-Beijing
• Washingtons ever more dominating role in the
  worlds strategic politics present in most major
  international issues
• Two ups two downs system US and China upwards,
  Russia and Japan downwards in political, economic
  and strategic matters
• The two up-countries US versus China

9

• Different from the bi-polar system existing
  during the Cold War
• Parallel triangular relationships like
• Washington-Beijing-Tokyo
• Moscow-Delhi-Beijing
• Washingtons ever more dominating role in the
  worlds strategic politics present in most major
  international issues
• Two ups two downs system US and China upwards,
  Russia and Japan downwards in political, economic
  and strategic matters
• The two up-countries US versus China
• Many regional issues have to do with the two
  upward countries

10

• USAs position is to maintain its status, wishes
  no change

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• USAs position is to maintain its status, wishes
  no change
• China not satisfied with the existing status

12

• USAs position is to maintain its status, wishes
  no change
• China not satisfied with the existing status
• Under what circumstances there will be
  competition/cooperation?

13

• USAs position is to maintain its status, wishes
  no change
• China not satisfied with the existing status
• Under what circumstances there will be
  competition/cooperation?
• Examples 1) Four party talks on the korean
  peninsula (Tokyo and Moscow would like to
  participate!)

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• USAs position is to maintain its status, wishes
  no change
• China not satisfied with the existing status
• Under what circumstances there will be
  competition/cooperation?
• Examples 1) Four party talks on the korean
  peninsula (Tokyo and Moscow would like to
  participate!) 2) Taiwan Strait

15

• USAs position is to maintain its status, wishes
  no change
• China not satisfied with the existing status
• Under what circumstances there will be
  competition/cooperation?
• Examples 1) Four party talks on the korean
  peninsula (Tokyo and Moscow would like to
  participate!) 2) Taiwan Strait
• What are Chinese and American perceptions of each
  other and how they view the third party, Russia

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II Imbalance of Power and the Bush Administration
Perceptions of Threat from Both Sides
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• American unilateralism others wish to see
  multilateralism with the UN

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• American unilateralism others wish to see
  multilateralism with the UN
• All bilateral relations reflected through the
  parties relations with the US

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• American unilateralism others wish to see
  multilateralism with the UN
• All bilateral relations reflected through the
  parties relations with the US
• USA is the only Superpower with a strategic
  potential stronger than the next seven to eight
  largest medium states together

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• American unilateralism others wish to see
  multilateralism with the UN
• All bilateral relations reflected through the
  parties relations with the US
• USA is the only Superpower with a strategic
  potential stronger than the next seven to eight
  largest medium states together
• Beijings foreign relations follow the same
  pattern as other medium powers

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• American unilateralism others wish to see
  multilateralism with the UN
• All bilateral relations reflected through the
  parties relations with the US
• USA is the only Superpower with a strategic
  potential stronger than the next seven to eight
  largest medium states together
• Beijings foreign relations follow the same
  pattern as other medium powers
• Impossible to catch up to the US, recognition of
  imbalanced global power relationship

22

• American unilateralism others wish to see
  multilateralism with the UN
• All bilateral relations reflected through the
  parties relations with the US
• USA is the only Superpower with a strategic
  potential stronger than the next seven to eight
  largest medium states together
• Beijings foreign relations follow the same
  pattern as other medium powers
• Impossible to catch up to the US, recognition of
  imbalanced global power relationship
• China views the US as its potential major threat

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• USA views China as its potential major threat

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• USA views China as its potential major threat
• Washingtons anti-China group number of think
  tanks, congressional staff members and
  intellectuals Paul Wolfowitz and Richard
  Armitage, no. 2s in Defence and State Department
  identify themselves with Japan and Taiwan

25

• USA views China as its potential major threat
• Washingtons anti-China group number of think
  tanks, congressional staff members and
  intellectuals Paul Wolfowitz and Richard
  Armitage, no. 2s in Defence and State Department
  identify themselves with Japan and Taiwan
• Bush announcements with string involvement on
  Taiwan, embassy bombing in Belgrad and spy plane
  incident

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III Chinas Soft- and Hardliners Patience
versus Confrontation
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• Mainstream thinking, the softliners, follow Deng
  Xiaopings basic ideas on foreign policy 28
  character foreign policy guideline

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• Mainstream thinking, the softliners, follow Deng
  Xiaopings basic ideas on foreign policy 28
  character foreign policy guideline
• Two examples Tao guang yang hui (keep low
  profile avoid confrontation, accumulate your own
  strength), jue bu danbao (never become a
  leader)

29

• Mainstream thinking, the softliners, follow Deng
  Xiaopings basic ideas on foreign policy 28
  character foreign policy guideline
• Two examples Tao guang yang hui (keep low
  profile avoid confrontation, accumulate your own
  strength), jue bu danbao (never become a
  leader)
• Very oriental

30

• Mainstream thinking, the softliners, follow Deng
  Xiaopings basic ideas on foreign policy 28
  character foreign policy guideline
• Two examples Tao guang yang hui (keep low
  profile avoid confrontation, accumulate your own
  strength), jue bu danbao (never become a
  leader)
• Very oriental
• Harliners, particularly among some military
  groups believe that Taiwan breaking away is
  inevitable China must be prepared for a
  confrontation

31

• Mainstream thinking, the softliners, follow Deng
  Xiaopings basic ideas on foreign policy 28
  character foreign policy guideline
• Two examples Tao guang yang hui (keep low
  profile avoid confrontation, accumulate your own
  strength), jue bu danbao (never become a
  leader)
• Very oriental
• Harliners, particularly among some military
  groups believe that Taiwan breaking away is
  inevitable China must be prepared for a
  confrontation
• Two generals from the Air Force wrote a book
  Unilimited war, or war beyond normal patterns
  from this perspective

32

• Mainstream thinking, the softliners, follow Deng
  Xiaopings basic ideas on foreign policy 28
  character foreign policy guideline
• Two examples Tao guang yang hui (keep low
  profile avoid confrontation, accumulate your own
  strength), jue bu danbao (never become a
  leader)
• Very oriental
• Harliners, particularly among some military
  groups believe that Taiwan breaking away is
  inevitable China must be prepared for a
  confrontation
• Two generals from the Air Force wrote a book
  Unilimited war, or war beyond normal patterns
  from this perspective
• Beijing government has announced that they do not
  agree with the writers

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• Rising Chinese nationalistic sentiment among the
  public reflect the hard line

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• Rising Chinese nationalistic sentiment among the
  public reflect the hard line
• The softliners see that time is on their side,
  trust on economic growth and economic and
  eventual political integration with Taiwan

35

• Rising Chinese nationalistic sentiment among the
  public reflect the hard line
• The softliners see that time is on their side,
  trust on economic growth and economic and
  eventual political integration with Taiwan
• Taiwanese settled in the greater Shanghai area
  2000 ¼ million, 2001 1/3 mill., 2002 ½ mill.

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IV The New Situation After 11.9.2001 Shifting
of Focus
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• The US shifted its policy towards China after
  September 11th

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• The US shifted its policy towards China after
  September 11th
• The US needs Chinas cooperation Korea (nuclear
  issues consensus), UN Security Council (Iraq)

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• The US shifted its policy towards China after
  September 11th
• The US needs Chinas cooperation Korea (nuclear
  issues consensus), UN Security Council (Iraq)
• The US is still officially keeping its one China
  policy (yet China is still perceived as a threat)

40

• The US shifted its policy towards China after
  September 11th
• The US needs Chinas cooperation Korea (nuclear
  issues consensus), UN Security Council (Iraq)
• The US is still officially keeping its one China
  policy (yet China is still perceived as a
  threat)
• Security consultations have increased between the
  US, Japan and Taiwan

41

• The US shifted its policy towards China after
  September 11th
• The US needs Chinas cooperation Korea (nuclear
  issues consensus), UN Security Council (Iraq)
• The US is still officially keeping its one China
  policy (yet China is still perceived as a
  threat)
• Security consultations have increased between the
  US, Japan and Taiwan
• Florida talks resulting in some kind of a
  semi-military alliance between the US, Japan and
  Taiwan

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V Beijings Own Strategy Several Tiers
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• Russia close personal relationsip among the
  state leaders (Jeltsin, Jiang Zemin, Putin)

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• Russia close personal relationsip among the
  state leaders (Jeltsin, Jiang Zemin, Putin)
• - Shanghai six agreement from April 1996 with
  China, Russia and four other states from Central
  Asia (after 9-11 and particularly after US
  involvement in Afganistan, this agreement has
  lost a part of its importance)

45

• Russia close personal relationsip among the
  state leaders (Jeltsin, Jiang Zemin, Putin)
• - Shanghai six agreement from April 1996 with
  China, Russia and four other states from Central
  Asia (after 9-11 and particularly after US
  involvement in Afganistan, this agreement has
  lost a part of its importance)
• - Arms sales from Russia to China advanced
  jet-fighters and weapon systems

46

• Russia close personal relationsip among the
  state leaders (Jeltsin, Jiang Zemin, Putin)
• - Shanghai six agreement from April 1996 with
  China, Russia and four other states from Central
  Asia (after 9-11 and particularly after US
  involvement in Afganistan, this agreement has
  lost a part of its importance)
• - Arms sales from Russia to China advanced
  jet-fighters and weapon systems
• - Increases Chinas military capacity e.g.
  air-to-air missile systems

47

• Russia close personal relationsip among the
  state leaders (Jeltsin, Jiang Zemin, Putin)
• - Shanghai six agreement from April 1996 with
  China, Russia and four other states from Central
  Asia (after 9-11 and particularly after US
  involvement in Afganistan, this agreement has
  lost a part of its importance)
• - Arms sales from Russia to China advanced
  jet-fighters and weapon systems
• - Increases Chinas military capacity e.g.
  air-to-air missile systems
• - Chinas huge military budget (Should the US
  maintain Taiwan on par with the PRC militarily?!!)

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- Economic benefits to Russia
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- Economic benefits to Russia - Russian energy
diplomacy plans of pipelines to Japan,
Manchuria, Korea
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- Economic benefits to Russia - Russian energy
diplomacy plans of pipelines to Japan,
Manchuria, Korea - China needs energy for its
economic reform close economic cooperation
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- Economic benefits to Russia - Russian energy
diplomacy plans of pipelines to Japan,
Manchuria, Korea - China needs energy for its
economic reform close economic cooperation B)
India increasing economic cooperation IT
emphasized
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- Economic benefits to Russia - Russian energy
diplomacy plans of pipelines to Japan,
Manchuria, Korea - China needs energy for its
economic reform close economic cooperation B)
India increasing economic cooperation IT
emphasized C) Southeast Asia Chinas activities
for ASEAN 3 and ASEAN 1, Japans Prime
Minister Koizumi joined immediately China is
still playing the leading role in the regional
economic situation
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- Economic benefits to Russia - Russian energy
diplomacy plans of pipelines to Japan,
Manchuria, Korea - China needs energy for its
economic reform close economic cooperation B)
India increasing economic cooperation IT
emphasized C) Southeast Asia Chinas activities
for ASEAN 3 and ASEAN 1, Japans Prime
Minister Koizumi joined immediately China is
still playing the leading role in the regional
economic situation D) Northeast Asia South
Korea, Japan and China have very close relations
consultations not only during summit meetings but
also on the ministerial level
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E) European Union
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E) European Union - China does not want to see
a two against one situation moving into three
against one
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E) European Union - China does not want to see
a two against one situation moving into three
against one - Beijing understands thet the EU
is not unified in its interests
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E) European Union - China does not want to see
a two against one situation moving into three
against one - Beijing understands thet the EU
is not unified in its interests- China not only
plays strategic cards but also economic ones with
its own economic strength Boeing/Airbus in
purchasing aircraft and talks about German or
Japanese technology in the rapid railway system
between Beijing and Shanghai
58
E) European Union - China does not want to see
a two against one situation moving into three
against one - Beijing understands thet the EU
is not unified in its interests- China not only
plays strategic cards but also economic ones with
its own economic strength Boeing/Airbus in
purchasing aircraft and talks about German or
Japanese technology in the rapid railway system
between Beijing and Shanghai- Politics play an
increasingly important role in economics
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VI Conclusions US domination
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• No longer a balanced strategic triangular
  relationship (if it ever was)

61

• No longer a balanced strategic triangular
  relationship (if it ever was)
• The US has a dominant role in international
  affairs

62

• No longer a balanced strategic triangular
  relationship (if it ever was)
• The US has a dominant role in international
  affairs
• At the same time, China is doing its best to
  defuse tensions in China-US relations with
  Russian relations and by concentrating on its
  internal priorities

63

• No longer a balanced strategic triangular
  relationship (if it ever was)
• The US has a dominant role in international
  affairs
• At the same time, China is doing its best to
  defuse tensions in China-US relations with
  Russian relations and by concentrating on its
  internal priorities
• Washingtons priorities are shifting and its
  target is now mowing away from China, which now
  has a break

64

• No longer a balanced strategic triangular
  relationship (if it ever was)
• The US has a dominant role in international
  affairs
• At the same time, China is doing its best to
  defuse tensions in China-US relations with
  Russian relations and by concentrating on its
  internal priorities
• Washingtons priorities are shifting and its
  target is now mowing away from China, which now
  has a break
• Russia wishes to regain its earlier status, but
  needs a longer time to have even a full economic
  recovery arms sales and energy diplomacy very
  important tolls for achieving that goal