J'C' Burgelman JRCIPTS

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Fistera a dynamic platform for Foresight on IST
in an enlarged Europe

• J.C. Burgelman JRC/IPTS

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WHAT

• A Thematic Network on Foresight on Information
  Society Technologies in the European Research
  Area
• Competitive action under the European IST
  programme (FP V)
• Started on 01 September 2002 - Duration of 3
  years currently 17 Network Members
• Scientifically Coordinated by JRC-IPTS
• Core scientific partners JRC-IPTS (EU),
  FZK-ITAS (D), Telecom Italia Lab (I), ARC/sr (A),
  PREST (UK)
• Currently 11 members in UK, NL, DK, E, PT, BG,
  HU, SL, TR, IRL USA, and a subcontractor in F
  (but expanding)
• High Level Advisory Group of senior Industry
  people
• http//fistera.jrc.es

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AIM OBJECTIVES

• Aim
• Bring together on a systematic and extended
  basis, actors and insights in national foresight
  exercises on IST in the enlarged Europe
• Three main objectives
• Compare results of national foresight exercises
• Provide a new forum for consensus building on
  future visions for IST
• Contribute to constructing the European Research
  Area through benchmarking and community building,
  by providing a dynamic pan European platform on
  foresight on ISTs

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WHY

• Community Added Value
• Rapid growth of Foresight in EU since the
  mid-1990s (also in CC13)
• Nearly all these exercises have involved an
  activity on ISTs
• Currently no mechanism to prevent overlap and
  redundancy in the carrying out of foresight work
• FISTERA is expected to
• Reduce duplication of efforts and increase mutual
  learning and sharing of results
• Help development of a more coherent structuring
  of the Foresight research community in ISTs,
  within thecontext of ERA under FPVI and in
  preparation of FPVII

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APPROACH

• Reviewing analysing national foresight exercise
  outcome
• Building aggregate pan-European Technology
  trajectories
• Mapping the European IST actor space
• Providing an IST Futures Forum
• Disseminating results interacting with the IST
  community

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MAIN MILESTONES EXPECTED RESULTS

• 2003
• Synthesis of national foresight exercises (8
  recent foresight exercises analysed A'98, CZ'02,
  D'02, E'01, F'99, H'99, S'00, UK'02 - will be
  updated in 2005)
• 1st Selection of Key European Technologies
  Trajectories
• 1st series of national workshops (in all
  participating countries)
• 2004
• 2nd Selection of Key European Technologies
  Trajectories
• Mapping of the EU IST actor space
• Second series of national workshops
• 2005
• IST Futures Forum
• Final conference Book etc.

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VISIONS OF THE INFORMATION SOCIETY

• National visions in line with Lisbon objectives
  (Internet uptake, IS for all, etc.)
• Education for IST professions high on the agenda
• Common trends
• Life-long learning (A, CZ, D, H, S)
• Healthcare, healthy aging population, support
  for disabled/elderly people (CZ, D, A, H, S, UK)
• e-democracy (A,UK, H, CZ, D)
• Tele-working, virtual companies (A, S, H)
• Differences
• Adaptation to human needs (shift what is
  possible to what is needed - D)
• "An information society for all" (S), but IS
  will also have losers" and "social readiness for
  IS a major bottleneck" (H)
• Let's get digital (UK 15 scenarios!) The
  "foresighted society (S)

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IST DEVELOPMENTS NEEDED

• More application-oriented than "cutting - edge"
  ICTs.
• Common concerns like interfaces and software for
  specific groups (e.g. elderly) ISTs for health
  care, transport, environment, e-government
• Reliable permanently available IT
  infrastructure (D, S)
• Digital assistant, more is becoming software,
  future services are electronic (S)
• IT Bio meet (S)
• IT media as engines of economic development
  (H), growing importance of ICT in traditional
  sectors e-content (E)
• Increase importance of mobile (CZ)
• Digital TV as platform (health care, state
  administration - CZ)
• Full understanding of human information
  processing, cognition creativity (D)
• Security privacy (S)
• Always online (S)

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KEY TECHNOLOGIES FORECASTED

• Hardware
• Intelligent sensors / actuators (F, CZ)
• Human-machine interface (CZ,D,S)
• Silicon micro-electronics (F)
• Mass memories/Data storage F,UK)
• Visualisation (D,UK)
• Mobile devices (D,S)
• Energy supply/ low power devices (D,UK)
• Powerful portable PC (UK)

• Software
• Simulation / modelling software (CZ,D,S,H)
• Information logistics (D)
• Software agents (D)
• Software engineering (E)
• Operating systems/appl. software (E)
• Creative content (UK)

• Systems
• Large scale systems, Complex systems on single
  chip (CZ), Microsystems (F)
• Communications networks (mobile/fixed)
  (CZ,UK,D,S)
• Embedded systems (F)
• Greater bandwidth (S, UK)
• Autonomous systems (S)

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CONCLUSIONS ON THE CONTENT OF THE FS STUDIES

• No homogeneity across countries in many respects
  (scope, motivation, methodology, treatment of
  ICTs, time horizon, method, participation, etc.)
• Stronger focus than in previous ICT foresights
  on societal problems (ICT - gt IST)
• "Experts" often carried away by hype.
  Participants sometimes have difficulties truly
  "thinking forward".
• Foresight as a process seems more important than
  intrinsic output.
• Recommendations mainly oriented towards
  short-term policies (extrapolation of current
  trends difficulty to investigate trend breaks
  "wild cards")

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RELEVANT FINDINGS FOR DOING THEMATIC FORESIGHT

• EU not a central dimension in the studies
• However
• Foresight is used to determine future role in
  European RD and engineering landscape
  identification of industrial "niches", but also
  of areas for EU research cooperation
• National strengths put in EU context (A, F, E)
• Foresight used to determine priorities for EU
  research participation and to shape the Framework
  Programmes (UK, E)
• CC 13 deeply concerned with adhesion impact.
  Integration of national RD in EU research
  activities is recommended (ERA, EU benchmarks,
  capability of broadband network).

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EVALUATION AS PROJECT LEADER OF A PAN-EU THEMATIC
FS

• Clear Need for ERA wide foresight and FS
  platform in for bottom up vision building
  (societal and technology) in IST.
• Great interest involvement of sponsor (DG
  INFSO).
• Enthusiasm of partners members (filling a
  need).
• Scientific credibility of core group very
  important.
• Hands on management more than necessary.
• Dissemination is very expensive (time and
  labour).
• Web based collaboration difficult.

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Thanks