Risk Analysis for Microsoft Project

1
Risk Analysis forMicrosoft Project Primavera
users

• Presentation for the Risk SIG
• Deloitte Touche
• 11 July 2002
• Tim Stevens - Professional Services Director

2
Pertmaster Project Risk

• Software provides
• Risk analysis for MS Project and Primavera users
• Standalone project risk modelling
• What-if risk analysis
• Reports
• Chance of completing projects in time and budget
• More realistic completion dates and budgets
• Key activities likely to cause project overrun

3
Enter Risk in MS Project or Primavera

• Duration uncertainty

Cost uncertainty
Probabilistic events
Screen shots from MS Project
4
Run risk analysis in Pertmaster Project Risk
Screen shots from Pertmaster Project Risk
5
Risk analysis results
85 completion date identified

• 6 chance of completing project on time

Screen shot from Pertmaster Project Risk
6
Update results to MS Project or Primavera

• Criticality Index
• Identify key activities likely to cause project
  delay

Display the 90 likely completion date in a
column or graphically on barchart
Screen shots from MS Project
7
Benefits of managing risk

• Hard Benefits
• Better informed credible plan
• Increased chance of success
• More suitable contracts
• Better assignment of contingency
• Protects against unsound projects
• Generates metrics for future projects
• Objective comparison of alternatives
• Identifies best risk owner

• Soft Benefits
• Improves communication
• Common understanding/team spirit
• Develops risk awareness
• Focuses attention
• Facilitates risk taking
• Demonstrates professionalism
• Exposes personnel issues

Ref Int J Proj Bus Risk Mgt Vol 1 1997
8
Conclusions on risk

• Risk management should be a core process within
  any business Fundamental to decision making!
• Risk management is considered as a core
  competency by both APM and PMI component of APM
  foundation course
• Risk management is one of the 9 key processes
  identified by the PMI
• The Turnbull Report in the UK (1998) made it a
  mandatory requirement for all LSE UK companies to
  manage risk

9
Business credentials