GCOS Adequacy Report

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GCOS Adequacy Report a WGII perspective

• Mike Harrison
• Head, WGII TSU

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Commission for Climatology - Open Programme Area
Group (OPAG) on Climate Applications, Information
and Prediction Services (CAIPS)

• Nine Expert Teams, including ones on Heat/Health
  Warning Systems, Health Indices, Renewable
  Energy, Urban Climatology
• Rapporteurs on hydrology, agrometeorology
• Focus on climate variability, seasonal to
  interannual prediction, and applications of
  climate information/predictions

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UNFCCC Article 2

• To achieve, in accordance with the relevant
  provisions of the Convention, stabilisation of
  greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
  at a level that would prevent dangerous
  anthropogenic interference with the climate
  system. Such a level should be achieved within a
  time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to
  adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that
  food production is not threatened and to enable
  economic development to proceed in a sustainable
  manner.

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UNFCCC Article 2

• To achieve, in accordance with the relevant
  provisions of the Convention, stabilisation of
  greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
  at a level that would prevent dangerous
  anthropogenic interference with the climate
  system. Such a level should be achieved within a
  time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to
  adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that
  food production is not threatened and to enable
  economic development to proceed in a sustainable
  manner.

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UNFCCC Article 2

• To achieve, in accordance with the relevant
  provisions of the Convention, stabilisation of
  greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
  at a level that would prevent dangerous
  anthropogenic interference with the climate
  system. Such a level should be achieved within a
  time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to
  adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that
  food production is not threatened and to enable
  economic development to proceed in a sustainable
  manner.

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GCOS Goals

• Characterise the state of the global climate
  system and its variability
• Monitor the forcing of the climate system,
  including both natural and anthropogenic
  contributions
• Support the attribution of the causes of climate
  change
• Support the prediction of global climate change
• Project global climate change information down to
  regional and national scales
• Characterise extreme events important in impact
  assessment and adaptation, and to risk and
  vulnerability

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GCOS Goals

• Characterise the state of the global climate
  system and its variability
• Monitor the forcing of the climate system,
  including both natural and anthropogenic
  contributions
• Support the attribution of the causes of climate
  change
• Support the prediction of global climate change
• Project global climate change information down to
  regional and national scales
• Characterise extreme events important in impact
  assessment and adaptation, and to risk and
  vulnerability

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Catastrophic Events 2002 Swiss ReBy Insurance
loss By human lives lost

• Europe flooding
• US storms/tornados
• Europe storm
• Europe flooding
• US hurricane
• US tropical storm
• US storms/tornados
• France flooding
• US winter storm
• US winter storm

• India social unrest
• Afghanistan earthquake
• Gambia ferry sinking
• India cold weather
• Nigeria explosion
• India heatwave
• China flooding
• India flooding
• Nepal flooding
• Egypt train fire

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Adequacy Report Conclusions

• 6.1.6 (Atmosphere) Studies on regional impacts
  of, and vulnerability to, climate change,
  especially changes in extreme events require
  national and regional climate observing networks
  at a finer scale, in addition to the GCOS
  baseline networks. When requested for the
  purposes of impact studies and extreme events,
  daily and/or hourly observations of the climate
  variables should be provided to the appropriate
  international data centre.

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Adequacy Report Conclusions

• 6.2.6 (Oceans) Adequately characterising extreme
  regional sea-level events requires that high
  frequency sea-level observations need to be taken
  and exchanged and historical data from tide
  gauges need to be provided to the international
  data centres. Capacity building efforts in
  developing countries for undertaking local
  sea-level change measurements can benefit the
  global system and foster needed regional
  enhancement.

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Adequacy Report Conclusions

• 6.3.6 (Terrestrial)

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Surface variables in GCOS list

• River discharge
• Water use
• Ground water
• Lake levels
• Snow cover
• Glaciers and ice caps
• Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground
• Albedo
• Land cover (including vegetation type)
• Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active
  radiation
• Leaf area index
• Biomass
• Fire disturbance

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WGII will be using WEHAB

• Water
• Energy
• Health
• Agriculture
• Biodiversity

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WEHAB from Article 2 Perspective

• Water
• Energy
• Health
• Agriculture directly included in Article 2
• Biodiversity directly included in Article 2
• In toto WEHAB (with additions) addresses
  Sustainable Development

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AR4 Cross Cutting Themes

• The Science of Article 2
• Sustainable Development
• Integration of Adaptation/Mitigation
• Water
• Regional
• Risk and Uncertainty
• Technology

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WEHAB from CCT Perspective

• Water - CCT
• Energy
• Health
• Agriculture
• Biodiversity
• In toto WEHAB addresses Sustainable Development
  (with additions) and Adaptation/Mitigation CCTs

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Data Distribution

• For WGII data are distributed by the DDC but in
  the main this provides scenarios and model
  results to impacts modellers
• The impacts side needs more detailed data sets on
  a variety of scales up to global, particularly
  for impacts assessment research many analyses
  currently use locally available data only
  resulting in piecemeal outcomes

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Conclusions 1

• Goal 6 of GCOS is imprecisely expressed and has
  limited scope
• WEHAB provides a more focussed perspective for
  planning WGII data requirements
• Monitoring of a rather wider range of variables
  than current is necessary for full consideration
  of Article 2
• An assessment of data requirements for WGII (and
  CCl) purposes is needed
• In general the non-managed systems considered by
  WGII have complex dynamics currently inadequately
  monitored

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Conclusions 2

• From the climatic point of view there is a clear
  need, as recognised by GCOS, for improved detail,
  both spatial and temporal
• From the applications-impacts-adaptation point of
  view there is a need for new data sets these
  need not necessarily be the responsibility of
  GCOS directly but there is need for an integrated
  strategy that incorporates standards