The Readiness of the Armed Forces

1
The Readiness of the Armed Forces

• The Armed Forces are adapting to a new role in
  National Security

What is this new role How well are they
responding What are the key risks and costs
What decisions face the next administration
2
The evolution of warfare

• War was Nation-states against Nation-states
• Fought with armies and ended with surrender or
  negotiation
• War now is anybody against everything
• Mercenaries/ad-hoc volunteers/terrorists/criminals
  /pirates
• Their demands are non-negotiable
• Military force rarely the solution to
  unconventional war
• Hard power kills and destroys
• U.S shifting to policy of soft war
• Soft power targets the human mind and will
• Words and deeds are the weapons
• in Information Warfare
• Military forces will play a diminishing role

Hard
Soft
3
You go to war with the army you have, not the
army you want

• Problem faced by many Presidents
• Result of our own overpowering strength in past
  wars
• Adversaries obliged to attack U. S. weaknesses
• Unconventional, irregular, unrestricted,
  asymmetric warfare
• Military adverse to risk of change
• Public desire for peace and disarmament

Armed forces tasked to prepare for soft war, but
not to weakening ability to fight conventional
war.
4
Conventional War

• FIND FIX Finish

Finding was easy Occasional overhead
photos Fixing no problem Opponent couldnt
move quickly Finishing meant destroying U.S.
force structure still based on Cold War Mass
and firepower
BUTA conventional war ends!
5
We were not prepared for Unconventional (soft)
War

• Find Fix Finish

• Opponent hides in the population
• Moves quickly and frequently
• Finishing is easyonce you find them
• Sense-kill time now a few minutes

The major emphasis is less on kinetics and more
on timely, actionable intelligence, produced by
the individual soldier and persistent
surveillance from overhead sensors.
BUTAn unconventional war may never end
!
6
Find, Fix and Finish has given way to this
concept of conflict

• Clear
• Means defeat enemy on battlefield
• U.S. forces instructing/supporting host nation
• Hold
• Means stabilize (occupy) territory
• Needs more troops on ground
• Build
• Means nation-building
• Not a mission for U.S. military
• Success measured by response of citizens

7
Strategy constrained by public angst over
collateral damage and our image

• Precision sensors can track individuals
• Precision weapons can target individuals
• But enemy moves and hides among the innocent
• Americans are critical of death of innocents
• Emphasis now on technology that can accurately
  identify individuals and their activities
• Cash
• Human Terrain teams
• Near-instant fingerprint and iris scan analysis
• Full motion video

8
The finest Armed Force in U. S. history is worn
and weary

• Conflicting guidance on planning for the future
• Performing functions normally provided by civil
  authorities
• Lacks the strength for stabilization
• Lacks the in-depth skills for nation building
• Dim prospects for more resources

There are limits to improvisation
9
Gates view of future Threat is complex of
hybrid of conventional and unconventional
conflict, waged by Militias, insurgent groups and
non-state actors, and Third World Militaries.

• Conventional war unlikely in near future
• Risk is acceptable
• Future adversaries (China-Russia) not cowed,
  shocked, awed into submission
• Too much emphasis on buying high-tech weapons
• Stop looking for 99 solutions in years
• Buy small numbers of advanced systems
• Instead, look for 75 solutions in months
• Buy large numbers of simpler,cheaper systems

Gates and Rice agree that military is too
involved in peacemaking and peace keeping
operations, but there is no alternativeyet!
10
U.S. Army

• Ordered to balance conventional and
  unconventional warfare
• Sharp difference with Secretary Gates on balance
• How to do without losing ability to fight
  conventional war
• Says it can do both with more troops
• Funds for this unlikely
• Combat force modernization program in trouble
• Too expensive, too late and too complex
• Too dependent on National Guard/Reserves
• Hard to retain junior officers

11
U. S. Marine Corps

• What missions do you want them to perform?
• A second army
• Navy police force
• Amphibious landings
• Floating air-launched expeditionary force
• Arctic operations

Takes ten years to transform
12
U.S. Air Force

• Suffering a cultural change
• Strategic bombing no proven substitute for land
  war
• No compelling need seen for manned fighter
  aircraft or pilots
• Growing demand for unmanned aerial vehicles for
  intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance
• Public wont accept collateral damage
• Loss of credibility with civilian leadership
• Top leaders fired
• Reorganizing its nuclear mission forces
• Aging aircraft with uncertain prospect for
  replacement

13
U. S. Navy

• Public awareness of the role of the Navy is
  cursory at best.
• How to maintain a global presence with a smaller
  fleet
• 1000 ship maritime force through partnerships
• Buy a new expensive destroyer, or more of the
  older type for littoral water operations
• Problem is vulnerability to tactical missiles
• What is the future role of the carrier
• Useful for presence but very vulnerable
• Potential role of the submarine
• Tactical conventional missiles
• Support for unconventional war and surveillance.

14
U.S. Coast Guard

• Our Senior military sea service
• Best prepared for homeland security threats
• NCB weapons via seaports
• Over tasked and under staffed
• Patrolling harbors, chasing pirates, supplying
  Georgia and participating in African combined
  fleet operations
• Passed from agency to agency
• Treasury
• Commerce
• Homeland security

But always one of the Armed Forces
15
Combatant/Regional Commands

• Europe, Pacific, Central, Southern, African and
  Northern Commands
• Strategic, Transportation, Special Operations and
  Joint Force Commands
• Each now has a strong voice in Programs and
  Budgets which once were the sole responsibility
  of the services under Title 10
• Special operations command has own budget and
  procurement authority
• Joint Chiefs rule on requirements,
  interoperability and jointness
• Emphasis is on missions and functions, not on
  weapons

16
Component Commands reflect new role of military
in national security affairs

• Northern Command
• Point of contact for military support to homeland
• Deputy is National Guard General
• Forces from active and National Guard
• African Command
• Deputy is a civilian and staff from State,
  Treasury, USAID
• No assigned military forces
• Mission to promote stability, security and
  democracy
• Southern and Pacific Commands
• Emphasis is on humanitarian missions
• Aiding failed and failing nations in solving
  their own problems
• European Command
• Diminished mission

17
The Future

• A man who wants to make a good instrument must
  first have a precise understanding of what the
  instrument is to be used for and he who intends
  to build a good instrument for war must first ask
  himself what the next war will be like.
• Giulio Douhet
• The next Administration must
• define its foreign policy objectives,
• determine the role of the armed forces,
• then give them the money and time to prepare.
• Campen

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