A higherorder cognitive behavior

1
Decision Making

• A higher-order cognitive behavior

2
Decision Making under Uncertainty Heuristics in
Judging Probabilities (Kahneman Tversky)

• Usefulness versus biasing
• The representativeness heuristic how similar is
  this event to previous events?
• Feminist or bank teller prototypes librarian
  example
• Short-run versus long-run odds
• Boy-girl birth orders (short-run study)
• Gamblers fallacy (short-run study)
• Hospital study (long-run study)
• The tendency to ignore base rates
• Over- and underestimating personal risks
• Overconfidence
• False Hope Hypothesis

3
Heuristics in Judging Probabilities

• The availability heuristic how easy is it to
  recall instances of events (frequencylikelihood)
• The letter k example
• Cause of death example
• The conjunction fallacy estimate odds of two
  uncertain events occurring together as greater
  than either occurring alone
• Feminist and bank teller
• Conservative and death penalty example

4

• Figure 8.16, Weiten

5
Heuristics in Judging Probabilities

• Anchoring and adjustment influence of the
  starting estimate on the final estimate
• Mississippi River example
• Estimate of multiplication problem