Propagation to 3Y0X Reality v Predictions

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Propagation to 3Y0XReality v Predictions
Steve Nichols G0KYA, RSGB Propagation Studies
Committee www.qsl.net/g0kya
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A few definitions Solar Flux A measure of the
electromagnetic output from thesun, measured at
a wavelength of 10.7cm (2800MHz). Sunspot
Number The number of observed sunspots and
sunspot groups. A index A daily average
measure of the distortion of the earths
magneticfield due to ions from the sun (flare
material, CMEs, coronal holes etc). K Index A
three-hourly (logarithmic) measure of the
distortion of theearths magnetic field due to
ions from the sun (flare material, coronal holes
etc).
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Good High solar flux (perhaps 150 200) and
low A/K indices Perhaps A less than 10 Bad Low
solar flux (less than 80) and high A/K
indices Perhaps A more than 25
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What about solar activity?
Source NOAA, Space Environment Center.
Predicted Smoothed SSN 18.4
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What about geomagnetic activity?
Source NOAA, Space Environment Center, Middle
Latitude - Fredericksburg
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The three prediction programs HamCap as used
on the 3Y0X web site. Uses the VOACAP engine
(free) W6ELProp the classic simple program
fromSheldon Shallon (free) ACE-HF a more
sophisticated program using the VOACAP engine
(99)
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HamCap
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HamCap
20m 24-hour propagation (short path)
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HamCap
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HamCap
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ACE-HF Short-path, 80m,40m,30m
400W three-element Yagi at both ends
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ACE-HF Short-path, 20m,17m,15m
400W three-element Yagi at both ends
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ACE-HF Long-path, best cases
400W three-element Yagi at both ends
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• So what could we conclude for 160-40m?
• Both HamCap and ACE-HF say that 160m and 80m are
  total no-go areas, but W6ELProp says 80m
  possible
• W6ELProp/ACE-HF say 40/30m may be possible
  ACE HF says 30m is better All programs agree
  that you need a VERY decent antenna and power
  QRPers need not apply!

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• So what could we conclude for 20-10m?
• All programs agree that you need a VERY decent
  station eg 400w and a tribander at 85 feet
• Conditions are marginal at best, although best
  bands are 20m short path 02000400,
  0700-1000 and 1930-2200
• 17m short path 1300-2000hrs
• 15m short path 1700-1930hrs 12m
  probability less than 20 (get used to white
  noise) 10m wash the car/wait six years!

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• So what about 80m and 160?
• Lets make some intelligent (?) assumptions
• You need a dark (night) path between the stations
  ?
• You need a low A and K Index ?
• Possibly low sunspot numbers? ?
• There good be greyline enhancement at UK sunrise
  ?
• Looking at mutual sunrise/sunset times then this
• only gives
• 0245hrs - 0725hrs

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• With a big but!
• The sun is never more than two degrees below the
  horizon at 3Y0X.
• So, best greyline time from UK is
  therefore0640hrs 0725hrs
• Actually, six minutes later at the beginning
  (0728hrs),and 13 minutes earlier at the end
  (0709hrs) but calculate according to YOUR
  longitude.

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The reality - 3Y0X to G
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Top band/80m reality

• Theory says contacts possible between 0245hrs -
  0725hrs
• Best greyline time is 0640hrs 0725hrs
• 160m
• G3BJ 13.2.06 0527hrs
• G3KZR 15.2.06 0638hrs ?
• G3XTT 13.2.06 0709hrs ?
• G3SED 13.2.06 0710hrs ?
• 80m
• G3BJ 15.2.06 0734hrs ? (ish) 11.2.06 0623h
  rs 13.2.06 0650hrs ?
• G3SED 12.2.06  0716hrs ?
• G0TSM 15.2.06 0725hrs ?
• 17.2.06 0712hrs ?
• 19.2.06 0643hrs ?

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Top band - contacts v sunrise
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Top band - contacts v K index
Top band stationwas dismantled in preparation
fordeparture.
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Top band - contacts v sunspots
Top band stationwas dismantled in preparation
fordeparture.
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80m contacts v sunrise
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80m reality (W6ELProp)
G3BJ 0734 (sunrise 0725)
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80m contacts v K Index
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80m - contacts v sunspot No.
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80m v 160m any correlationby day?
Top band stationwas dismantled in preparation
fordeparture.
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80m v 160m -any correlation by time?
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40m reality v ACE-HF
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40m reality v W6ELProp
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30m/40m reality (ACE-HF)
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20m reality v ACE-HF (3el Yagi)
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20m reality v W6ELProp
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17m reality (ACE-HF)
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15m reality (ACE-HF W6ELProp)
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15m/17m/20m reality (ACE-HF)
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12m reality (ACE-HF Yagi x 3el)
Note W6ELProp predicts no opening!
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12m reality (ACE-HF Yagi x 3el)
So 12m opening came on a day with zero sunspot
number, but after four days of SNgt10
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HF contacts v solar indices
Notes HF is 20-10m Solar data source NOAA,
Space Environment Center.
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Stop Press VOAProp
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• Conclusions 1 MF propagation
• On 160m and 80m the maximum number of contacts
  occurred at the time of lowest (zero) sunspot
  number/low K index.
• Sunrise/pre-sunrise at the UK end provided the
  best opportunity for contacts on 160m, 80m and
  40m.
• A calculation of best greyline time for 80m
  would have proved very fruitful!

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• Conclusions 2 HF propagation
• HF contacts appeared to be mainly short path,
  but there was a significant number of long path
  contacts on 20m in the afternoon (13th/14th).
• 17m, 15m, and 12m were textbook, following the
  predictions very closely indeed.
• The best conditions appeared to be at times of
  zero sunspot number this was when the big
  12m opening occurred (12th) and when the 20m
  long path openings occurred (13th/14th).

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• Conclusions - software
• Both HamCap (free) and ACE-HF (99) did a pretty
  good job of calculating the HF possibilities,
  but did not predict Top Band/80m openings.
• If using either, assume 400w and a Yagi to get a
  decentprediction.
• W6ELProp also did a good job, but also
  highlighted the 80m openings and its free!
• My thanks to the 3Y0X team for a great
  Dxpeditionand for making me lose some sleep!

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• Useful web sites
• This presentation www.qsl.net/g0kya
• HamCap - www.dxatlas.com/HamCap
• ACE-HF - home.att.net/acehf/
• W6ELProp - www.qsl.net/w6elprop/
• Geoclock - home.att.net/geoclock/
• VOAProp www.g4ilo.com