Cultural Phenomenon

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• Cultural Phenomenon
• vs. Verifiable Results

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DISCLAIMERS

• I am not a researcher
• Develop, manage and promote the AARP DSP program.
• Promise No indoctrination
• With AARP for 21 years. AARP DSP for 7.
• No questions regarding Rx Drugs/Medicare

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Background/Numbers

• Course began in 1979 as 55 Alive
• First year 6,000 graduates
• Last year 717,276 grads 40,000 Courses
• 1 of Eligible drivers age 50 take course
• 5 to 6 Overall Market Penetration
• 85 of graduates are 65 or older

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Numbers (contd)

• 20 of graduates are 80
• 41 Men, 59 Women
• Work Status 80 Retired Work Full time 11
  Work Part-time 9
• 1 in 6 is NY State Resident
• 10,400 volunteers teach and coordinate
• Taught in all 50 states, DC, VI, PR
• Mandatory discounts in 36 states and DC

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Graduates 1980 to 2003
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Monthly Graduate Spread
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Value of the Program to AARP

• 69 of graduates are AARP members
• Grads/Vols are 15 yr. members (vs 10 yrs)
• 16 cite DSP as a reason for renewing
• 44 of grads use other svcs (vs 26)
• Grads half as likely to lapse membership
• Insurance savings valued at 15 mil/yr.
• Supports AARPs independent living/transp. Goals
  as well as community service outreach

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What we teach

• Judging Yourself
• Physical Changes
• Trouble Spots
• Aggressive Driving
• Safety Considerations
• Driver Guidance

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What we teach (contd)

• The Vehicle
• Intersections
• The Freeway
• Driving Retirement

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Course Revision

• Approximately every 5 years
• Two-year process
• Student and Volunteer Input via Surveys
• Federal and State Agency Input
• Pilot Testing
• Volunteer Training
• Currently Teaching Edition 5
• Beginning Work on Edition 6

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California Studies

• 1988 through 1992
• MDI N values from 36,000 to 45,500
• Comparison group from 65,000 to 76,000

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3-Year Prior Driving Record
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Subsequent Accident/Citation Rates per 100
drivers (unadjusted)


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California Study Results

• No significant improvement for F/I crashes
• Significant difference in subsequent citations
  for all five cohorts
• Significant measures in adjusted figures were in
  total accidents, which favored the comparison
  group
• Two cohorts showed significant differences on F/I
  accidents 1988 favored MDI group and 1991
  favored comparison group.

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New York Insurance Dept. Study - 1987

• Analyzed premiums/losses for 105,000 NY course
  graduates for 1985
• Found loss ratio to be .539 vs .588 for those
  without the defensive driving 10 credit
• The .539 figure premiums included the 10
  discount so true loss ratio would be even less
  for the defensive driving grads.

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New York DMV Study - 1988

• Studied NY graduates of program only attending in
  18 months from 2/82 6/83
• Compared pre-course and post-course accident and
  conviction rates
• N 85,000
• Overall accident rates 15 percent lower
• Overall conviction rates 56 percent lower
• Lower rates across all sex and age categories and
  within every sponsoring agency course.

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Survey of Edition 4

• 1999 Survey of Students
• Graduates within the prior 3 years
• 3400 Questionnaires Returned 53 Response
• High Student Satisfaction
• Changes in Driving Behaviors

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Student Satisfaction

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Most Useful Sections to Students

• Blind spots
• Accident Prevention Tips
• 3 Second Following Distance
• Emergency Situations
• Road Signs

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Least Useful Sections

• Homework Assignment
• Child Safety Seats
• Driver Calisthenics
• Alcohol
• Quiz

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1999 Student Survey (contd)

• Eight in ten graduates (80) report that they
  have changed their driving habits.
• 66 always check blind spots.
• 58 keep a safe following distance and space
  cushion.
• 48 keep their eyes moving to scan traffic.

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More Changes in Driving Habits

• Aware of where parking at malls, etc. 47
• Always use safety belts 44
• Yielding right of way 36
• Driving in bad weather 30
• Limit times when you drive 28

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Changes in Driving Habits (contd)

• Look for safety features when buying a car 28
• Use anti-lock brakes properly 26
• Turning in general 25
• Avoid left turns 24
• Limiting your travel on highways 21
• Avoid driving while on medication 19
• Consider limiting or stopping your driving 10

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In Conclusion

• Effects on crash reduction highly inconclusive
• Effects on conviction rates rates somewhat more
  significant
• Self-reported data indicates some behavior change
  taking place
• So.

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Questions for the future

• How can we better determine any effects on crash
  reduction?
• What would the ideal study look like?
• Is there a link between behavior change and crash
  reduction?
• How do we quantify such a link?
• Are there other measures/indicators that we
  should be looking at?

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Future Plans of the AARP DSP in terms of Research

• Another NY study is planned in 2004
• Would like to work with another organization in
  developing additional research
• Continue involving other organizations in
  formulation of next edition of the course
• Work with educational research firm to maximize
  impact of instructional design on learning and
  behavioral change
• Establish an ongoing advisory group on course
  content.

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Contact info

• Brian Greenberg
• bgreenberg_at_aarp.org
• 202/434-6018
• www.aarp.org/drive
• Frank Carroll, National Director
• fcarroll_at_aarp.org
• 202/434-6007