Kenya: The Wild Poliovirus Threats

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Kenya The Wild Poliovirus Threats
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The Siege Spread of poliovirus in 2004/5
Yemen
Sudan
Uganda
Kenya
Tanzania
Danger of WP imports to Kenya from Yemen,
Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia and through DRC/Uganda
from Angola
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The Siege Risk of Poliovirus spread
Yemen
Sudan
Uganda
Kenya
Tanzania
WPV in Nairobi will spread to all parts of the
world
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Threats from Sudan
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The Sudan Threat Spread follows the West African
Islamic Hajj route to Mecca, Saudi Arabia
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The Sudan Threat
Export, Ethiopia July 2005 SUD04-2005720674
SUD-SDA-2004-028 Neyala 13Oct04
ETH-ORO-EHA-05-404 NICD EPL-05-807 E Hararghe
05Jul05 Export, Eritrea, May 2005
SUD04-2005721663 SUD-KAS-2004-016 Kassala
23Nov04 ERI-GAB-GOG-05-013 NICD 635/2005 Gogne
01May05
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Epidemiologic Situation / Activities

• Last WPV Case July 2005
• SIAs The Darfour States (20 22 August)
  coordinated with SIA in Chad
• The rest of Sudan (27 August to 29 August)
• September 28-30
• Red Sea State/Eritrea Border not covered

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Threat from Yemen
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The Yemen Threat
Exports to Somalia YEM05-2005725542
YEM-ADN-2005-565-08 Dar Saad 13Jun05
SOM-BAN-WDB-05-001 NICD 753/2005 Mogadishu S -
Wardigley 23Jul05 SOM-BAN-YQA-05-003 NICD
789/2005 Mogadishu S - Yaqshid 03Aug05
EMRO 23-06-05
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Wild polio cases in Yemen in relation to SIAs (As
of 07 of September 2005)
From 30 of April to 8th of June 05
Before end of April 05
Round 1 April 2005
185 cases
167 cases
Round 2 30 May- 1 June 2005
Round 3 12 Jul-14 Jul 2005
From 9th of June to 22 July 05
From 23rd of July to date
Last WP Case was in Almahara, Date of Onset 2nd
August 2005
96 cases
8 cases
EMRO 07-09-05
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Threat from Ethiopia
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Distribution of Polio Compatible and Confirmed
Polio Cases, Ethiopia, 29 Sept 2005
Wild polio case
Polio compatible case
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Epidemiology

• 18 wild poliovirus cases confirmed since December
  2004 (17 in 2005)
• One new wild poliovirus case this week from East
  Harerge Zone of Oromia Region
• Most recent case had symptom onset, August 12,
  2005
• Sequencing of the virus from the first East
  Harerge cases shows closest match is with virus
  isolated in 2004 from Red Sea Province of Sudan.
• 10 compatible cases
• 9 cases with primary isolates pending ITD
• Three of 11 Regions (provinces) reporting WPV
  cases all P1

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Threat from Somalia
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Somalia Regions
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AFP/Polio cases in Mogadishu, 2005
Map 2
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Epidemiologic situation

• Population under 15 years is 3,702,266.
• Number of AFP cases(169). Their distribution is
  shown in table 1.
• The increase is in the weeks 35-42.
• 86 AFP cases were reported from Mogadishu.
• -12 are confirmed polio cases (all from
  Banadir).
• -8 discarded (laboratory negative).
• -2 pending ITD
• -64 still pending laboratory results. 46 (70)
  of these had fever and asymmetric paralysis.

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Epidemiologic situation

• More than 50 of cases under 2 years of age.
• 50 of them did not receive any dose of OPV (zero
  dose).
• Most of the cases are known chronic refusals.
• No clusters seen in other regions.