Global Climate Change Data Calibration: Opening Discussion of Issues

1
Global Climate Change Data CalibrationOpening
Discussion of Issues
Dr. Phil Hattis

• AIAA VP for Public Policy

2
Why AIAA Is Sponsoring This Event

• The AIAA Strategic Plan has the following
  imperative Advance Technologies to Monitor and
  Reduce Environmental Impacts
• AIAA must continue to provide technical venues
  and programs focused on key advancements
  necessary to measure global climate changes due
  to natural and human-induced effects and to
  minimize the environmental impact of aerospace
  activities while sustaining the many positive
  societal contributions of air and space systems.
• Aerospace professionals must and will be major
  contributors to the means to mitigate the
  challenges of global climate change
• Todays Objective Discuss issues and solutions
  tied to two major challenges
• Achieving calibrated measurements of global
  climate change for a very long time
• Enabling reliable monitoring of international
  protocols aimed at mitigating climate change

3
Coverage Needed to Understand Climate Change

• Ground stations
• Sustained, stable observation of reference ground
  status in all types of eco-zones
• Monitoring of central Asia and Africa (that are
  now poorly covered)
• Observation of politically restricted access
  regions
• Sea stations
• Atmospheric observations above this 70 of the
  Earth surface (using stabilized platforms)
• Ocean temperature and salinity profiles
• Ocean currents
• Some concerns
• Scavenging of observation stations
• Accessibility of acquired data

Permafrost Changes Alter Terrain-Based Reference
Calibration Conditions (1978/1998 shown)
(Tananna Flats, Alaska courtesy NOAA)
The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) has
negligible coverage in the oceans, Africa, and
Central Asia
Figure courtesy of the Alfred Wigener Institute
indicating BSRN station locations as of March 2008
4
Coverage Needed to Monitor Mitigation Compliance
Tracking Particular Emitters Will Require Means
to Monitor Specific Locations

• Information Needed
• On-going status of man made emissions
• Local releases of restricted species
• Regional emission and gas scattering trends
• Quantified emissions from natural events and
  disasters
• Volcanic eruptions
• Wildfires
• Challenges
• Most emission releases are within the atmospheric
  surface boundary layer
• Anticipating emission dispersions requires
  account for winds
• at various levels
• Sustained compliance monitoring requires a
  coordinated infrastructure of ground, air, and
  space instruments
• Tracking of man-made CO2 emissions against a
  variable background requires good measurements
  and advanced data processing

2002 US CO2 Hot Spot Map from Purdue University
Feedback Processes Involve Entangled Natural and
Human Effects
5
Some Issues to Address

• Measurement standards that remain valid over very
  long time spans (many decades)
• Valid comparison of different instruments and
  results from different looking conditions
• Ground truth references in regions with few
  applicable sites
• Cross validation between ground, air, and space
  measurements
• Tasking capability on space-based platforms for
  on-demand monitoring of identified emission sites
  of concern
• Means to track specific emission characteristics
• Overcoming systematic issues at surface
  monitoring stations
• Error sources include wind effects, building
  shadows, voltage drifts, degradation
• Impact of long-term changes in surface conditions
  at calibration sites
• Necessary adjustments in calibration
  criteria/methods due to changes in observation
  platforms and/or observation technologies

6
(No Transcript)