Arkes et al. (1981)

1

• Arkes et al. (1981)
• Doctors given a case history to read
• Is it disease A or disease B?
• Group 1 - told nothing about real diagnosis
• Group 2 - told correct diagnosis was disease A
• Group 3 - told correct diagnosis was disease B
• Result probability estimates were higher for
• correct diagnosis
• So Hindsight Bias
• Hindsight bias happens when you warn people
• to avoid it
• It does not happen when subjects dont believe
• the outcome information