Hybrids and Other Advanced Personal Vehicle Technologies

1
Hybrids and Other Advanced Personal Vehicle
Technologies

• National Energy, Environment and Transportation
  Summit
• Jeff Alson
• United States Environmental Protection Agency
• May 16, 2002

2
Advanced Vehicle Technologies

• Why do we care?
• What are the technology options?
• Are hybrids market-ready?
• Do we need policy drivers?

3
Good News and Bad News
(NOx and Fuel Use/Carbon from Highway Vehicles)
10
350
9
300
8
250
7
6
NOx Emissions
200
(Millions Tons)
5
150
Fuel Use
4
(Billions of
Gallons)
3
100
2
50
1
0
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
4
Personal Vehicles are Critical
5
New Personal Vehicle Fuel Economy at 21-Year
Low(Real World fuel economy, 15 lower than
CAFE values)
6
Advanced Technology Options
7
Hybrids Electric vs. Hydraulic
8
Why are Hybrids More Efficient?

• Engine can be sized to typical, rather than
  extreme, use
• Engine can be turned off, and can be operated
  more often near peak efficiency
• Can recover braking energy

9
Hybrids Available in US
10
More Hybrids Coming Soon
11
EPA Hydraulic Hybrid

• EPA lead under Partnership for a New Generation
  of Vehicles
• Advantages
• --simple materials and manufacturing
• --very high power density
• Disadvantages
• --low energy density
• --noise
• CRADAs with Ford and Eaton

12
Reality Check(US personal vehicle sales)
13
Fuel Cost Weak Technology DriverOn-road
passenger car fleet - cents per mile (2000 )
14
New Technology Used for Power/Size Change, 1988
- 2001
19
-8
15
Current Federal Policies

• Fuel Economy
• CAFE standards
• R and D

• Alternative Fuels
• favorable fuel taxes
• fleet requirements
• vehicle and refueling tax deductions
• AMFA CAFÉ credits

16
Tax Credits in Energy Bills(personal vehicles)

• Vehicle/Engine Technology
• --Lean Burn Engines (House) up to 4000
• --Hybrids up to 4000-5000
• --Dedicated AFVs up to 3500-4000
• --Dedicated Battery up to 3500-6000
• --Fuel Cells up to 8000
• Alternative Fuels (Senate) 0.30-0.50 per GGE
• Fuel Infrastructure
• --Retail up to 30,000
• --Residential up to 1000

17
State Incentives/Policies

• Monetary incentives to purchase advanced
  technology vehicles
• Lower excise taxes for alternative fuels
• Alternative fuel infrastructure incentives
• HOV lane usage
• Parking incentives
• Demonstration projects
• ZEV/PZEV requirements

18
Conclusions

• Concerns over oil use and climate promoting
  interest in paradigm shift
• Many options, but now only 0.3 of new sales
• Hybrids building some momentum
• Advocates searching for policy drivers--large
  federal tax credits appear likely
• No guarantees--should pursue multiple paths