Population Maps of Latin America

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Population Maps of Latin America Glenn Hyman,
Andy Nelson, German Lema International Center
for Tropical Agriculture Cali, Colombia
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• Outline
• Why we need population maps
• The Database
• Gridding methods
• Verification
• Relationships between population and other
  variables
• Future Research

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Why we need population maps
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Potential Agricultural Productivity
Population summed by zones
Note Areas en black are cities. Zones in Purple
are higher rural population densities. Zones in
green are low rural population densities.
Raster Population Surface
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The Database
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CIAT Administrative Division Database
10,400 units most are municipios
Municipio level
Parroquia level
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Population Density in Latin America and the
Caribbean
people/km2
lt 1 1-10 10-25 25-50 50-100 gt100
Source CIATs Population Database
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• Growth rates were calculated from ECLACs
  population
• database at the department level
• An exponential growth rate function was used
• Population was estimated to the year 2000
• We used figures from the last 2 population
  censuses at
• department level to calculate population
  growth rates

r ( ln ( pf / pi ) ) / t where r
rate ln logaritmo natural pf population at
final time pi population at initial time t
period of time
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• Gridding Methods
• Equal distribution
• (total population / number of cells in unit)
• Pycnophylactic
• Accessibility
• Weight model

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Caminos y Rios
Roads and Rivers from DCW
Pendientes
Slope from 1 km DEM
Luces Nocturnas
Nighttime Lights
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Continental Scale Accessibility Mapping
Model based on travel time to populated places
Model uses roads, rivers, populated places,
slope, and land cover to estimate travel time
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Population from Census
Accessibility Model
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Verification
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Municipio Distrito Ecuador 203 976 Peru
191 1836
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Verification data from different scales and
independently collected
Model where municipal level data is verified from
data aggregated to finer district level
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Modeled population counts compared to census
data for Peru and Ecuador verification data sets
percentage differences
PERU Variable N Mean
Minimum Maximum CV Sum
--------------------------------------------------
---------------------- DAREA 1781
196.40 0.13 16741.92 371.72
349797.39 DPYCNO 1781 190.89 0.17
20361.68 378.29 339991.89 DACCESS
1781 168.63 0.04 17139.46 381.31
300337.16 DACCESS_2 1781 160.16 0.02
15857.71 352.97 285248.06 DWEIGHT
1781 148.56 0.02 11166.89 338.47
264588.71
ECUADOR Variable N Mean
Minimum Maximum CV Sum
--------------------------------------------------
-------------------- DAREA 918
235.06 0.01 17803.46 354.12
215788.54 DPYCNO 918 235.38 0.20
16337.44 342.67 216080.66 DACCESS
918 176.95 0.12 5001.63 248.19
162441.51 DACCESS_2 918 178.11 0.22
4116.35 233.95 163508.02 DWEIGHT
918 154.62 0.59 5022.37 235.05
141944.20
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Ecuador BEST Frequency
Percent -----------------------------
area 150 16.5
access 154 16.9
access_2 168 18.5
pycno 183 20.1
weight 255 28.0
Peru BEST
Frequency Percent -------------------
---------- area 265 15.0
access 320 18.1
access_2 404 22.8 pycno
291 16.4 weight 492
27.8
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Relationships between population and other
variables
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Distribution of Rural Population in Latin
America and the Caribbean
People per km2
Central America, the Andes, and the Caribbean
have the highest rural population densities.
Source CEPAL
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Rural Model Variable R2
Cumulative R2 URBANO 0.52
0.52 AGUA 0.23 0.75
PEN25_50 0.06 0.81
Variable Parameter F Prob gt F
Estimate AGUA 441.14117780
346.35 0.0001 URBANO 4373.57019841
774.39 0.0001 PEN25_50 110.28701024
111.94 0.0001
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Urban Model Variable
R2 Cumulative
R2 URBANO 0.7548
0.7548 LUC100 0.0376
0.7924 LUC25 0.0146
0.8069 AGUA 0.0133
0.8202
Variable Parameter F ProbgtF
Estimate URBANO 36362.6 694.94
0.0001 LUC100 2564.6
80.49 0.0001 LUC25 -2558.5
34.26 0.0001 AGUA 873.8
23.48 0.0001
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• Future Work
• Gridding using statistical results
• Further verification using data from Peru,
  Honduras and Ecuador
• Compare to other work (eg. ORNL 1 km
• database)
• A Rural population map?
• New Map with 2000 Census round focusing on
• Amazon basin, Central American hillsides, Latin
  American savanas.