Future Sea Level Rise Sources

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Future Sea Level Rise Sources

• A compilation of data/predicted sea level rise
• Group 2, Mission 2010

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Purpose

• This is so that the rest of you can see the
  current data out there on sea level rise
  predictions

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Source 1-3 Can

• Climatic Research Unit (2000)
• Author Sarah Raper
• In meters 1.8 to 2.1
• Uncertainties
• Future greenhouse gases aerosol emissions
• Greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere
• Effect of changed concentrations on the radiative
  forcing of the atmosphere
• Effect of this force on temperature and snowfall
• Rate of heat transfer to the ocean
• Regional climate change over the glaciers, ice
  caps, and ice-sheets
• Response of the glaciers, ice-caps, and
  ice-sheets to this climate changes

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Source 1
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Source 2

• Supports 1st Source
• Graph source is Wikipedia
• In centimeters
• 1880-2000

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Source 2
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Source 3

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001)
• In meters1.990-2.100
• Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are
  stabilised, sea level will continue to rise for
  hundreds of years. After 500 years, sea level
  rise from the thermal expansion of oceans may
  have reached only half its eventual level,
  glacier retreat will continue and ice sheets will
  continue to react to climate change.
• Thermal expansion and land ice changes were
  calculated using a simple climate model
  calibrated separately for each of seven air/ocean
  global climate models (AOGCMs). Light shading
  shows range of all model

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Source 3
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Source 4-8 YeSeul

• 1. Coast to Coast 2002 National Conference
• Main writer Kevin Walsh, University of
  Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences
• 2. Predicted sea level rise .03 to .3 m by 2040
  .09-.88m by 2010
• 3. Uncertainties due to future greenhouse gas
  concentrations. Used GIS

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Source 4
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Source 5

• EPA (Saving Louisianas Coastal Wetlands Report)
  http//yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/Uniq
  ueKeyLookup/SHSU5BURPP/File/louisiana.pdf
• .7 m rise by 2080
• Incorporate Uncertainties future emissions on
  greenhouse gases, resulting impact on climate,
  oceanic heat absorption and response of glaciers
  to warming

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Source 5
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Source 6

• IPCC
• .48 m

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Source 6
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Source 7

• Hart, David A., Burkett, Virginia A., Ziloski,
  David A. Sea Level Rise and Subsidence
  Implications of Flooding in New Orleans,
  Louisiana. United States Geological Survey.
• .48m

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Source 8

• USGS

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Source 9-13 Erika

• CSCOR, Division of NOAA http//www.cop.noaa.gov/st
  ressors/climatechange/current/sea_level_rise.html
• Uncertainty Process for determining projected
  sea level rise was not stated.
• 3. .040m 1.029m by 2095

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Source 10

• 1. Australian Academy of Science
• http//www.science.org.au/nova/082/082key.htm
• Uncertainty Greenhouse gas concentrations,
  climate sensitivity, ocean heat exchange, and
  response of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to
  years of warmer temperatures
• 3. .09m - .88m, with a best guess of .50m

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Source 11

• 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research
  http//www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/307/571
  6/1769
• Uncertainty Greenhouse gas concentrations
• 3. With a global temp rise of between 1.9 and
  2.6C .18m - .2m with a global temp rise of
  between 2.2 and 3.5C .19m - .30m

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Source 13

• 1. Climate and sea level change(1993). In Warrick
  R. A., Barrow E. M. and Wigley, T. M. L. (Eds.).
  Great Britain Cambridge University Press.
• 2. Actual temperature rise due to greenhouse gas
  emissions
• 3. Business as usual (no change in rate of
  greenhouse gas emissions) 1.09m
• Scenario B (reasonably realistic policies are
  implemented to reduce future greenhouse gas
  emissions) .47m
• Scenario C (assumes somewhat stronger
  policies) .18m

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Source 14-18 Katie

• 1. AGI (American Geological Institute)2.
  Uncertain how much of the sea level rise data
  pertaining to 130,000 yearsago was due to
  Antarctic ice sheet melting 3. 6 meters or more
  over the next 140 years (due to melting of ice
  sheets)

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Source 14
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Source 15

• 1. CRU (Climatic Research Unit)2. Lists factors
  contributing to uncertainty         1. the
  assumed future greenhouse gas and aerosol
  emissions,         2. the resulting greenhouse
  gas concentrations in the atmosphere,which
  depends on the various sources and sinks of the
  various gases,         3. the effect of the
  changed concentrations on the radiativeforcing
  of the atmosphere,         4. the effect of
  this forcing on the climate, in particular
  ontemperature and snowfall,         5. the
  rate of heat penetration into the ocean, which
  will affectthe rate of thermal expansion of the
  ocean,         6. the regional climate change
  over the glaciers, ice caps andice-sheets (both
  temperature and snowfall),         7. the
  response of the glaciers, ice caps and ice-sheets
  to thisclimate change.3. Based on looking at
  the chart, about 40 cm by 2100, using the
  "ReferenceBest Guess" line 4.

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Source 15
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Source 16

• 1. David Gates...some smart guy who wrote some
  book about this stuff,published by Sinauer
  Associates 2. Very uncertain, gives a broad
  general range of estimates 3. 33 cm by 2050,
  anywhere from 1.5 - 2.5 m by 2100

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Source 17

• 1. Iowa State University2. There is no evidence
  for any acceleration in the rate of sea level
  risefor the 20th century 3. Best estimate -
  .66 m by 2100
• To see graphs http//www.iitap.iastate.edu/gcp/se
  alevel/sealevel_lecture.html

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Source 18

• 1. Modelle Daten - World Data Center for
  Climate, Hamburg 2. Sea level rise varies
  depending on model 3. Various estimates based
  on different models

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Source 18
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Source 18
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Source 18
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Source 18
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Source 18
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Other things to consider
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Conclusion

• Reasonable data ranges anywhere from .02-1.5 m
• Extreme low .02m
• Extreme high 6 m
• Average .944 m (Calculated from taking average
  of ranges/ of data sources without the extreme
  high or low outliers)

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Average values of SLR ranges
1.95
1.94
2.045
.485
.7
.48
.48
.5345
.5
.575
.47
.4
2
.66
6 extreme
.2 extreme