Novartis Strategic Communication Analysis

1
National Missile Defense Study
Conducted for
Prepared by
July, 2007
2
Table of Contents
3
Background and Methodology

• Questions was included in the CARAVAN omnibus
  survey from Opinion Research Corporation in order
  to determine Americas views about national
  security in general and missile defense in
  particular.
• Results are based on telephone interviews
  conducted July 19-22, 2007 among a sample of
  1,023 adults (510 men and 513 women) 18 years of
  age and older, in the continental United States.
• Interviews were weighted by four variables age,
  sex, geographic region, and race, to ensure
  reliable and accurate representation of the total
  adult population.
• The margin of error at a 95 confidence level is
  plus or minus three percentage points for the
  entire sample. Smaller sub-groups will have
  larger error margins.

4
Executive Summary
Founded 1938
5
Executive Summary
This survey by the Missile Defense Advocacy
Alliance clearly shows that there is widespread
concern among Americans about the threat posed to
the United States by missiles that might contain
weapons of mass destruction. Further, there is
substantial non-partisan support for the US
having a missile defense system. In fact, most
Americans believe the US already has such a
system in place. While there are differences in
the degree of support for missile defense, there
is a consensus cutting across all partisan and
demographic lines that the US should have a
missile defense system and this years missile
defense military budget request should be met.

• One in three Americans (32) believe the
  President and Congress need to address the
  combined issues of homeland security (20) and
  national defense issues (12) this year. These
  issues, along with health care (21) and
  education (13) are Americas priority issues.
• Given a list of possible threats to the US,
  terrorism is rated as the most or second most
  significant threat (47), followed by dependence
  on Middle Eastern oil (30), proliferation of
  nuclear weapons (26), unpredictable countries
  like North Korea (26), Irans development of
  nuclear weapons (22) and Chinas growing power
  (13).
• Six in ten Americans think that the threat to the
  US of a foreign country or terrorist organization
  launching a missile using a weapon of mass
  destruction is very real and someone will do it
  or it has a good chance of happening. Only 4
  think there is no chance this could occur, while
  35 think it could happen but probably wont.
• Republicans are more concerned, as are women.

6

• Fully 83 of Americans think the United States
  should have a missile defense system with the
  ability to protect the country from an attack by
  missiles that might contain WMD, including 69
  who strongly agree.
• While Republicans are all but unanimous in
  thinking the US should have such a system, they
  are joined by 78 of Independents and Democrats
  64 of Independents and 59 of Democrats strongly
  think the US should have such a system.
• Even three in four Americans who dont think it
  is likely there will be a missile attack on the
  US think the country should have a missile
  defense system, including 55 who believe that
  strongly.
• Three in four Americans (75) believe the US has
  a missile defense system, including 40 who are
  sure there is such a system. Only 18 dont
  think the US has such a system or are sure the
  country doesnt. In fact, missile defense
  proponents are more likely than average to think
  the US already has such a system, indicating that
  education is needed to motivate them to actively
  support development and deployment of a missile
  defense system.
• Seven in ten Americans (71) think Congress
  should support the militarys request that 2.2
  of this years military budget go towards
  development and deployment of missile defense.
  Support is across the board, including 90 of
  Republicans, 67 of Independents and 60 of
  Democrats.
• Two in three Americans (68) think a missile
  defense system is affordable, while only 27
  think it isnt. Fifty-nine percent of Democrats,
  as well as 65 of Independents and 83 of
  Republicans think it is affordable.

7

• Eight in ten Americans (81) think missile
  defense should be an important part of US efforts
  for homeland security and public safety, with 64
  strongly agreeing with this.
• Republicans are all but unanimous in support
  (93), although 75 of Independents and 79 of
  Democrats agree as well (including 57 of
  Independents and 61 of Democrats who strongly
  agree).
• Three in four Americans (75) think the US should
  continue to develop and build a missile defense
  system to assure that the entire US is protected
  from all missile ranges, while only 21 think
  development should stop and the system limited
  62 strongly believe development should continue.
  
• Once again, large majorities of Independents
  (70), Democrats (65) and Republicans (92)
  think development should continue. Slightly more
  than half of both Independents and Democrats
  strongly believe it should continue.
• About three in four Americans (73) think a
  missile defense system would counter possible
  missile and nuclear threats from other countries,
  such as Iran and North Korea. However, only 18
  think it definitely would, indicating Americans
  arent as sure about this as they are about other
  issues.
• Eighty-two percent of Americans think a US
  missile defense system should protect our troops
  and allies from the threat of ballistic missiles
  only 12 disagree. Ninety percent of
  Republicans, 79 of Independents and 80 of
  Democrats agree.
• Seventy percent of Americans support the current
  plan to deploy missile defense sites in Poland
  and the Czech Republic only 25 are opposed.
  While 30 strongly support the plan, intensity is
  clearly lower than for other questions.
  Regardless, 85 of Republicans, 66 of
  Independents and 62 of Democrats support the
  current plan.

8

• Three in four Americans (75) support programs to
  determine if missile defense systems located in
  space can defend against long and medium range
  missiles only 18 are not supportive. Support
  is across the board, including 71 of Democrats,
  73 of Independents and 86 of Republicans.
• Given a list of options about missile defense in
  space, 60 of Americans think such systems should
  be located in space if it makes the US and our
  allies more secure, while 24 think only think
  missile systems including communication and
  sensory satellites should be deployed. Only 11
  are opposed to any missile defense systems being
  located in space.
• At least half of Democrats (53), Independents
  (55) and Republicans (72) support missile
  defense system deployment in space. Only 15 of
  Democrats and 12 of Independents are opposed to
  any system deployment in space.
• When presented with an array of options to deal
  with WMD proliferation, only 13 think a missile
  defense system would be the MOST effective option
  for the US to pursue. About half think
  diplomatic efforts (34) or international
  treaties (18) would be most effective, while 14
  think pre-emptive military action to destroy the
  weapons would be most effective and 10 think
  buying them from countries which have them would
  be best.
• One in five Republicans, 13 of Independents and
  7 of Democrats think a missile defense system
  would be the most effective option.

9

• Eight in ten Americans (81) think it is
  extremely (34) or very important (47) that
  presidential candidates talk about their plans to
  defend our homeland, including the development of
  missile defense. The vast majority of Americans
  across the board think this is an important issue
  for candidates to address, including 88 of
  Republicans, 75 of Independents and 82 of
  Democrats.
• Mirroring current public surveys of candidate
  support, Americans have the most confidence in
  Hillary Clinton (20) and Rudy Giuliani (16) to
  defend the homeland.
• When results among those affiliated with each
  party are examined, Giuliani is rated the top
  among Republicans (28), with McCain (17),
  Thompson (17) and Romney (10) trailing. Among
  Democrats, 41 have the most confidence in
  Clinton, with Obama (19) and Edwards (10) far
  behind. Results among Independents are very
  close to the overall results.

10
Detailed Findings
Founded 1938
11
Most Important Priority
Health care and homeland security are the issues
Americans think are the most important priorities
for the President and Congress to address this
year. One in three (32) name homeland security
or national defense as the most important
priorities.
Homeland Security/ National Defense 32
QU1 Id like to read you a list of priorities.
Please tell me which ONE RESPONSE you feel is the
MOST IMPORTANT priority for the President and
Congress to address THIS year. Base
Total (n1,023)
12
Most Important Priority
While Republicans, men, older adults and those
with a high school education or less are the most
likely to name homeland security or defense as
the most important priorities, at least
one-quarter of adults in all groups think these
are the issues the President and Congress should
address this year.
NOTE Throughout the report, results
statistically higher than average are
highlighted QU1 Id like to read you a list of
priorities. Please tell me which ONE RESPONSE
you feel is the MOST IMPORTANT priority for the
President and Congress to address THIS year.
Bases Republicans (n311), Independents
(n354), Democrats (n307), Male (n510), Female
(n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54 (n422), 55
(n451), Less than 25,000 (n166),
25,000-49,999 (n256), 50,000-74,999 (n185),
75,000 (n238), High school or less (n335),
College incomplete (n276), College graduate
(n400)
13
Most Significant Threats
Americans think terrorism is the most significant
threat to the United States and our allies, with
dependence on Middle Eastern oil, proliferation
of nuclear weapons, unpredictable countries like
North Korea and Irans development of nuclear
weapons in the second tier of concerns.
47
30
26
26
22
13
14
QU2 The following have been cited by various
commentators as threats to the United States and
our allies. Which one do you believe is the MOST
significant threat? And which one is
the NEXT MOST significant threat? Base Total
(n1,023)
14
Most Significant Threats
Terrorism is viewed as the most significant
threat among most groups, although dependence on
Middle Eastern oil is more important than average
to Independents and Democrats, as well as the
wealthiest and best-educated Americans.
QU2 The following have been cited by various
commentators as threats to the United States and
our allies. Which one do you believe is the MOST
significant threat? And which one is
the NEXT MOST significant threat? Bases
Republicans (n311), Independents (n354),
Democrats (n307), Male (n510), Female (n513),
18-34 (n142), 35-54 (n422), 55 (n451),
Less than 25,000 (n166),
25,000-49,999 (n256), 50,000-74,999 (n185),
75,000 (n238), High school or less (n335),
College incomplete (n276),
College graduate (n400)
15
How Real Is the Threat?
Well over half of Americans (60) think the
threat of a foreign country or terrorist
organization launching a missile or using a
weapon of mass destruction is very real and
someone will do it or think there is a good
chance it could happen. Only 4 think there is
no chance this could happen.
60
NOTE Percentages may not add up due to
rounding QU5 How real do you think the threat is
of a foreign country or terrorist organization
launching a missile using a weapon of mass
destruction against the United States?
Do you think that . . . Base Total (n1,023)
16
How Real Is the Threat?
While there is some variation in the percentages
who think there is a real threat or a good chance
of the US being attacked by a missile using a
WMD, a majority of all major subgroups think
there is at least a good chance it will happen.
QU5 How real do you think the threat is of a
foreign country or terrorist organization
launching a missile using a weapon of mass
destruction against the United States? Do
you think that . . . Bases Total (n1,023),
Republicans (n311), Independents (n354),
Democrats (n307), Male (n510), Female (n513),
18-34 (n142), 35-54 (n422), 55 (n451),
Northeast (n187), North Central (n235),
South (n365), West (n236), High school or less
(n335), College incomplete (n276), College
graduate (n400)
17
Should the US Have a Missile Defense System?
The vast majority of Americans (83) think the US
should have a missile defense system with the
ability to protect the US from an attack by
missiles which may have WMD, including 69 who
strongly agree. About eight in ten respondents
in all demographic subgroups think the US should
have such a system. Even three-quarters of those
who do not think there is a good chance a foreign
country or terrorist organization could launch a
missile using a WMD support the US having a
missile defense system.
Strongly
Should 83
Not so strongly
Strongly
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
Not so strongly
Should Not 14
QU3 Do you think the United States should or
should not have a missile defense system with the
ability to protect the United States from an
attack by missiles that might contain
weapons of mass destruction? Bases Total
(n1,023), Republicans (n311), Independents
(n354), Democrats (n307), Will happen (n618),
Will not happen (n390), Men (n510),
Women (n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54 (n422),
55 (n451)
18
Does the US Have a Missile Defense System?
Three in four Americans (76) believe that the US
has a missile defense system, including 41 who
are sure of it. A large majority of Americans
across the all groups think the US has a system
or are sure the US does.
Think there is a system
Sure there is a system
Do not think there is a system
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
Sure there is not a system
QU4 To the best of your knowledge, does the
United States have a missile defense system?
Would you say Bases Total (n1,023),
Republicans (n311), Independents (n354),
Democrats (n307), Will happen (n618), Will not
happen (n390), Men (n510),
Women (n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54 (n422), 55
(n451)
19
Should 2.2 of Military Budget Go To Missile
Defense?
Seventy-one percent of Americans, including solid
majorities of Democrats, Republicans and
Independents, as well as all demographic
subgroups, think Congress should support the US
militarys request that 2.2 of the defense
budget go toward development and deployment of
missile defense.
Yes
No
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
QU6 The U.S. military has requested 2.2 of next
years defense budget to go toward development
and deployment of missile defense. Do you think
Congress should support this request?
Bases Total (n1,023), Republicans (n311),
Independents (n354), Democrats (n307), Male
(n510), Female (n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54
(n422), 55 (n451), Northeast
(n187), North Central (n235), South (n365),
West (n236), High school or less (n335),
College incomplete (n276),
College graduate (n400)
20
Is Missile Defense Affordable?
By more than a 2-1 margin, Americans think a
missile defense system is affordable this
includes a solid majority of Democrats and
Independents, as well as an overwhelming majority
of Republicans.
QU7 Here are two statements people have made
about the cost of a missile defense system.
Please tell me which one comes CLOSER to your own
point of view. Bases Total
(n1,023), Republicans (n311), Independents
(n354), Democrats (n307), Male (n510), Female
(n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54 (n422),
55 (n451), Northeast (n187), North
Central (n235), South (n365), West (n236),
High school or less (n335), College incomplete
(n276), College graduate (n400)
21
Missile Defense Should Be an Important Part of
Homeland Security?
Eight in ten Americans agree that a missile
defense system should be an important part of US
efforts for homeland security and public safety,
including 64 who strongly agree with this. At
least three in four adults in all groups agree,
more than half strongly.
Strongly
Agree 81
Not so strongly
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
Not so strongly
Strongly
Disagree 17
QU8 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement A missile defense system should be an
important part of the United States efforts for
homeland security and public safety.
Bases Total (n1,023), Republicans (n311),
Independents (n354), Democrats (n307), Male
(n510), Female (n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54
(n422), 55 (n451), Northeast
(n187), North Central (n235), South (n365),
West (n236), High school or less (n335),
College incomplete (n276),
College graduate (n400)
22
Continue or Stop Development?
Three in four Americans think the US should
continue to develop and build a missile defense
system, including 62 who strongly believe this.
Support is widespread across all groups.
Strongly
Continue to Build and Develop 75
Not so strongly
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
Not so strongly
Strongly
Stop Developing/Keep Limited 21
QU9 As you may know, the United States has
recently begun to deploy a limited missile
defense system. Now that you have had a chance
to think a bit more about a missile
defense system and its role in the future, do you
think ROTATE (the United States should continue
to develop and build a missile defense system to
assure that the entire United States can be
protected from all ranges of missiles) OR (the
United States should stop developing and building
the missile defense system and keep it as a
limited system)? Bases Total (n1,023),
Republicans (n311), Independents (n354),
Democrats (n307), Male (n510), Female (n513),
18-34 (n142), 35-54 (n422), 55 (n451),
Northeast (n187), North Central
(n235), South (n365), West (n236), High school
or less (n335), College incomplete (n276),
College graduate (n400)
23
Would Missile Defense System Counter Threats of
Other Countries?
Three in four Americans (73) think a missile
defense system would counter the possible missile
and nuclear threat of other countries, such as
Iran and North Korea. However, most arent sure
about a missile defense systems ability to do
this.
21
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
Probably would not
Definitely would not
Definitely would
73
Probably would
NOTE Percentages may not add up due to
rounding QU10 In your opinion, would a missile
defense system counter the possible missile and
nuclear threat of other countries, such as Iran
and North Korea? Would you say Bases
Total (n1,023), Republicans (n311),
Independents (n354), Democrats (n307), Male
(n510), Female (n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54
(n422), 55 (n451), Northeast
(n187), North Central (n235), South (n365),
West (n236), High school or less (n335),
College incomplete (n276),
College graduate (n400)
24
Should US Missile Defense System Protect Our
Troops and Allies from Threat of Ballistic
Missiles?
Eighty-two percent of Americans, including at
least three in four in all subgroups, think a US
missile defense system should protect our troops
and allies from the threat of ballistic missiles.

Yes
No
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
NOTE Percentages may not add up due to
rounding QU11 Do you think that a U.S. missile
defense system should protect our troops and our
allies from the threat of ballistic missiles?
Bases Total (n1,023), Republicans (n311),
Independents (n354), Democrats (n307), Male
(n510), Female (n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54
(n422), 55 (n451), Northeast
(n187), North Central (n235), South (n365),
West (n236), High school or less (n335),
College incomplete (n276),
College graduate (n400)
25
Deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic
By nearly a 3-1 margin, Americans support the
planning to deploy missile defense sites in
Poland and the Czech Republic to defend the US
and Europe against threats from the Middle East,
including more than 60 of Democrats and
Independents.
Support 70
Not so strongly
Strongly
Strongly
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
Not so strongly
Oppose 25
QU12 The United States is currently in the
planning phase of deploying missile defense sites
in Poland and the Czech Republic to defend both
the United States and Europe against
threats originating from Middle Eastern
countries. Please tell me if this plan is
something you Bases Total (n1,023),
Republicans (n311), Independents (n354),
Democrats (n307), Male (n510), Female (n513),
18-34 (n142), 35-54 (n422), 55 (n451),
Northeast (n187), North Central
(n235), South (n365), West (n236), High school
or less (n335), College incomplete (n276),
College graduate (n400)
26
Support for Programs to Determine If Systems in
Space Can Work
Three in four Americans support programs to
determine if missile defense systems located in
space can defend against long and medium range
missile attacks. Large majorities across the
board support this.
Yes
No
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
QU13 Long and medium range missiles that could
attack the United States spend a majority of
their flight time in space. Do you support
programs to determine if missile
defense systems located in space can defend
against these missiles? Bases Total
(n1,023), Republicans (n311), Independents
(n354), Democrats (n307), Male (n510), Female
(n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54 (n422), 55
(n451), Northeast (n187), North
Central (n235), South (n365), West (n236),
High school or less (n335), College incomplete
(n276), College graduate (n400)
27
Using Space for Missile Defense
Given a list of options about missile defense in
space, 60 of Americans think such systems should
be located in space if it makes the US and our
allies more secure, while 24 think missile
defense systems located in space should only
include communication and sensor satellites.
Only 11 dont think missile defense systems
should be located in space under any
circumstances.
NOTE Percentages may not add up due to
rounding QU14 The use of space to help protect
our nation has existed for over forty years.
Which of the following points of view about the
use of missile defense in space comes
CLOSEST to your own? Bases Total (n1,023)
28
Using Space for Missile Defense
More than half of those in all major subgoups
think missile defense systems should be located
in space if it makes us and our allies more
secure.
NOTE Percentages may not add up due to
rounding QU14 The use of space to help protect
our nation has existed for over forty years.
Which of the following points of view about the
use of missile defense in space comes
CLOSEST to your own? Bases Republicans
(n311), Independents (n354), Democrats (n307),
Male (n510), Female (n513), 18-34 (n142),
35-54 (n422), 55 (n451), Northeast (n187),
North Central (n235), South
(n365), West (n236), High school or less
(n335), College incomplete (n276), College
graduate (n400)
29
Options for Dealing with Spread of Missiles and
WMD
Presented with a range of options for dealing
with the spread of missiles and weapons of mass
destruction, about half of Americans think
diplomatic efforts (34) or international
treaties (18) would be MOST effective for the US
to pursue in response to the problem 14 think
pre-emptive military action would work best,
while 13 think a missile defense system would
and 10 think purchasing the weapons from
countries which have them would be the best route.
NOTE Percentages may not add up due to
rounding QU15 Which of the following options do
you think would be MOST effective for the United
States to pursue in response to the problem of
the spreading of missiles and weapons
of mass destruction? Bases Total (n1,023)
30
Options for Dealing with Spread of Missiles and
WMD
When given an array of options and asked which
would be the MOST effective one for the US to
pursue, diplomacy was chosen by 21 of
Republicans, 34 of Independents and 45 of
Democrats.
QU15 Which of the following options do you think
would be MOST effective for the United States to
pursue in response to the problem of the
spreading of missiles and weapons of
mass destruction? Bases Republicans (n311),
Independents (n354), Democrats (n307), Male
(n510), Female (n513), 18-34 (n142), 35-54
(n422), 55 (n451), Northeast (n187),
North Central (n235), South (n365), West
(n236), High school or less (n335), College
incomplete (n276), College graduate (n400)
31
Importance of Presidential Candidates Addressing
the Issue
Eight in ten Americans think it is extremely or
very important that presidential candidates talk
about their plans to defend our homeland,
including the development of missile defense 34
think it is extremely important. While this
issues is particularly important to Republicans,
large majorities across the board think it is
important that presidential candidates address
this issue.
81
Very Important
Extremely Important
Not Important at All
Not Very Important
Dont know/ Unsure/ Refused
18
QU16 How important do you think it is for a
candidate for President to talk about their plans
to defend our homeland, including the development
of missile defense? Would you say it
is Bases Total (n1,023), Republicans
(n311), Independents (n354), Democrats (n307),
Male (n510), Female (n513), 18-34 (n142),
35-54 (n422), 55 (n451),
Northeast (n187), North Central (n235), South
(n365), West (n236), High school or less
(n335), College incomplete (n276), College
graduate (n400)
32
Which Candidate Will Best Defend Homeland?
Mirroring public surveys of candidate support,
Americans have the most confidence in Hillary
Clinton (20) and Rudy Giuliani (16) to defend
the homeland.
NOTE Percentages may not add up due to
rounding QU17 In which Presidential candidate do
you have the MOST confidence to defend our
homeland? Would you say Base Total (n1,023)
33
Which Candidate Will Best Defend Homeland?
Republicans have the most confidence in Rudy
Giuliani to defend the homeland, while Democrats
are most confident in Hillary Clinton.
Independents are divided between Republican and
Democratic candidates, with Clinton and Giuliani
the top individual candidates.
Republican Identifiers
Democratic Identifiers
Independents
NOTE Percentages may not add up due to
rounding QU17 In which Presidential candidate do
you have the MOST confidence to defend our
homeland? Would you say Bases Republicans
(n311), Independents (n354), Democrats (n307)
34
Appendix
Founded 1938
35
RELIABILITY OF SURVEY PERCENTAGES

• Results of any sample are subject to sampling
  variation. The magnitude of the variation is
  measurable and is affected by the number of
  interviews and the level of the percentages
  expressing the results.
• The table below shows the possible sample
  variation that applies to percentage results
  reported herein. The chances are 95 in 100 that
  a survey result does not vary, plus or minus, by
  more than the indicated number of percentage
  points from the result that would be obtained if
  interviews had been conducted with all persons in
  the universe represented by the sample.

Size of Sample on
Approximate Sampling Tolerances
Applicable Which Survey Results
to Percentages At or Near These
Levels Are Based 10 or
90 20 or 80 30 or 70 40 or 60 50   1,000
interviews 2 2 3 3 3 500 interviews 3 4 4
4 4 250 interviews 4 5 6 6 6 100
interviews 6 8 9 10 10   Additional
Sampling Tolerances for Samples of 1,000
Interviews   9 or 91 8 or 92 7 or 93 6 or
94 5 or 95 2 2 2 1 1   4 or 96 3 or
97 2 or 98 1 or 99 1 1 1 .2
36
SAMPLING TOLERANCES WHEN COMPARING TWO SAMPLES

• Tolerances are also involved in the comparison of
  results from independent parts of the sample. A
  difference, in other words, must be of at least a
  certain number of percentage points to be
  considered statistically significant that is
  not due to random chance. The table below is a
  guide to the sampling tolerances in percentage
  points applicable to such comparisons, based on a
  95 confidence level.

Differences Required
for Significance At Size of Samples
or Near These Percentage
Levels Compared 10 or 90 20 or
80 30 or 70 40 or 60 50 1,000 and
1,000 3 4 4 4 4 1,000 and
500 3 4 5 5 5 1,000 and 250 4 6 6 7 7
1,000 and 100 6 8 9 10 10 500 and
500 4 5 6 6 6 500 and 250 5 6 7 7 8 50
0 and 100 6 9 10 11 11 250 and
250 5 7 8 9 9 250 and 100 7 9 11 11 12
100 and 100 8 11 13 14 14