Canadian Search Area Definition (CSAD)

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Canadian Search Area Definition (CSAD)

• Minnesota Wing Air Branch Director Course

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What is CSAD?

• Canadian Search Area Definition
• A method of determining the POC for a missing
  aircraft using statistical information from a
  series of Canadian studies of crash locations.

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Sources of Data

• Several studies of Air Distress Cases conducted
  by the Canadian Department of National Defense,
  Operational Research Branch between 1974 and
  1987.
• An additional study was made by John Desmarais
  looking at 1999 cases in the United States. His
  results were comparable, though not identical, to
  the Canadian data.

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The Goal of the Studies

• Where were missing aircraft found relative to
  their intended track?
• Distance from LKP along the intended track,
• Distance offset from the centerline of the
  intended track.

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Findings

• Distance along track (without consideration of
  how far off course)
• Cases were spread fairly uniformly along the
  track (97.4). Why?
• There was a concentration of cases near LKP and
  the destination.
• Slightly more cases occurred in the last half of
  the track. Why?
• Distance offset from track--off course (without
  considering track distance)
• There was no correlation between length of flight
  (actual or intended) and the distance offset from
  track centerline,
• 61.8 of cases were found within 5 nm of track
  centerline,
• 78.9 within 10 nm,
• 82.9 within 15 nm, beyond which little was
  gained.

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The Goal

• The goal was to define a search area large enough
  to be very likely to contain the missing
  aircraft, yet small enough to be able to be
  searched. Trading off these two elements, the
  researchers coined the CSAD search area
• A box, 10 nm on each side of the
  intended/expected route of flight.
• Generates POC 76.8

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Probability Along Track

• Probability the aircraft is between the LKP and a
  point (as a percentage of the intended route
  length) along the route of flight.

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Probability of Offset

• Probability the aircraft is within a given
  distance from the centerline of the intended
  track.

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So how do we use this?

• To use this method, you need
• LKP - Update your search area as your
  investigations refine LKP
• Destination
• Intended or expected route
• We can use CSAD to calculate POC
• POC (Probability of Offset) / (Probability
  Along Track)

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Limitations

• It is historical data based on where aircraft
  have been found in the past. Your pilot may not
  be average.
• Does not take into account clues or other
  factors.
• Works good for initial searches when you have few
  clues. Once you have clues, use your judgment
  and experience.

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Questions?