Climate Literacy

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Climate Literacy Climate Change ContentFor
Spherical Displays

• Frank NiepoldNOAA Climate Program OfficeSilver
  Spring, MD USA

Keith W. Dixon NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
LabPrinceton, NJ USA
Climate Models as Virtual Time Machines
1850 .... 1900 .... 1950 .... 2000 .... 2050
.... 2100
NOAA SCIENCE ON A SPHERE USERSCOLLABORATIVE
NETWORK 2008 Hilo, Hawaii
31 July 2008
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Lacking a Time Machine, Climate Models provide
the most credible, science-based means to
quantitativelyproject how the planets climate
will respond to changes in greenhouse gases
other climate forcing agents.
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Model grids

• At GFDL, our workhorse models have more than
  300,000 atmospheric grid cells and a couple
  million ocean grid cells.

And theres thousands more grid cells for the
land and sea ice model components.
Finer grid resolution (smaller 3-D grid cells) is
desired by scientists and stakeholders, but is
limited by computer resources.
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Model grids
This cube has 27 grid cells Imagine about
100,000 of these combined to form a
globethats the scale ofcurrent workhorse
globalclimate model. Now image gt 2½ million
of these combined thats the number of grid
points in a GFDL global climate model were
testing. (78 million pts) Our next generation
model?
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Observational recordscan tell us about the past
and the present This week weve seen
numerousexamples of observationalinfo
wonderfully communicatedusing spherical displays.
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• Some of what climate models offer
• Can simulate potential futureconditions and the
  past quantitatively.
• Can simulate linkages between the different
  Global Climate System components (air, ocean,
  land, sea ice, biogeochemistry)

Climate models aspowerful yet imperfecttools
that allow us to ask What ifscience
questions.

• Can isolate individual factors (role of natural
  vs. human-induced climate forcing factors).
• Can provide insight into whethershort term
  wiggles or trends areclimate signals or just
  random noise.

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SEA ICE
NOAA/GFDL CLIMATE MODEL PRODUCTS
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SURFACE AIRTEMPERATURE
NOAA/GFDL CLIMATE MODEL PRODUCTS
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Schematic of 3-D Ocean Circulation
After Gnanadesikan Hallberg, 2002
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Simulated Ocean Heat Content Changes
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Simulated Ocean Heat Content Changes
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Progress in Climate Science Occurs via a
Synthesis of Observations, Theory, Numerical
Modeling
One of the Climate Literacy Principles
Since the 1970s, many of themajor advancements
in climate science have come about asimproved
observations, refinements to theory, and
theresults of computer modelinghave revealed a
consistent story.
Like a sturdy 3-legged stool...
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Atmosphere, Weather and Climate Education in the
U.S.
Revolutionizing Earth System Science Education
for the 21st Century Report, 2007 (page 34)
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Climate Literacy is

• a continuum of competency

Literacy Progression
Target Audiences
Climate science engaged
INFORMED DECISION MAKING
Climate science attentive
CLIMATE LITERACY
KNOWLEDGE
Climate science interested
AWARENESS
Uninterested and/or unaware
Long-term, the vision expects a society capable
of informed decision-making
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9-12
6-8
3-5
K-2
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Current Federal Partners. Current NOAA, EPA, NSF
and US Forest Service
Current National Partners. UCAR, NCAR, CIRES,
AMS, TERC, GLOBE program, College of Exploration,
ESIP federation, ASTC IGLO, LHS, AAAS Project
2061, NAAEE
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Observations, experiments, and theory used to
construct and refine computer models and develop
scientific explanations lead to better
understanding of the linkages between the
atmosphere-ocean system and how it relates to the
overall climate systems behavior. As a result,
more reliable projections of future climate
changes will develop over time.
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The consensus of scientific opinion is that the
natural processes driving long-term climate
changes cannot entirely explain the rapid changes
observed in recent decades, nor do they solely
predict those projected for coming decades.
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The preponderance of scientific evidence
indicates that the observed increase in global
average temperatures since the latter part of the
20th century is very likely due to documented
increases in human-induced greenhouse gas
concentrations, primarily from the burning of
fossil fuels.3 (3 Based on IPCC 2007 The
Physical Science basis Contribution of Working
Group I)
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Fundamental characteristics of the climate system
have been researched and are understood well
enough to make reasonably accurate predictions
about the climate system and, therefore, to
support decision making, even though research
continues into many aspects of climate change.

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Climate Science Sources
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Climate Science Sources

• Individual papers vs assessments