Transport Fuels for the Future

1
Inland Transport Committee Round Table, 20
February 2002, Geneva

• Transport Fuels for the Future
• Neville Thompson,
• David Rickeard
• CONCAWE

2
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions

3
DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN REGULATED EMISSIONS
4
ROAD TRANSPORT EMISSIONS CONTRIBUTION DECLINING
Source European Commission
5
NEW FOCUS ON GREENHOUSE GASES
Future challenge Reduce CO2 while maintaining
low regulated emissions
6
MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN FUEL QUALITY ACHIEVED

• Real benefits when fuel change enables a step
  change in engine / after-treatment technology

7
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions

8
FUTURE FUEL NEEDS DEPEND ON VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY

• Conventional vehicle developments
• Advanced gasoline engines
• Direct Injection, Variable Valve Actuation,
  Downsizing
• Improved diesel engines
• Multiple high pressure injections, Exhaust gas
  recirculation
• Advanced after-treatment
• Lean NOx converters, PM traps, Improved TWC
• Hybrids
• gt Sulphur-free fuels meet the needs of all
  these vehicles
• Novel combustion systems e.g. HCCI need more
  study
• Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
• Best way to deliver hydrogen to the vehicle still
  unclear
• Gasoline-type, methanol, direct hydrogen ?
• gt New fuels will be required, but more work
  needed

9
CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES DOMINATE FUTURE MARKET
Source EUCAR

• Changes will be gradual as new vehicles enter the
  fleet
• Increased diesel / reduced gasoline demand
  expected
• Slow penetration of new technologies, e.g. fuel
  cell vehicles

10
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions

11
LOWER SULPHUR FUELS ENABLE ADVANCED VEHICLES

• Advanced engines and after-treatment systems can
  achieve very low emissions with low Sulphur fuels

LD Diesel NEDC emissions
Source DETR/SMMT/CONCAWE Particulates
programme and AECC

• Influence of other fuel properties becomes small

12
REFINERY CO2 INCREASES WITH FUEL CHANGES
Refinery CO2 Emissions, EU-15
Source CONCAWE

• Future fuel changes need careful evaluation on a
  well-to-wheels basis

13
GHG EMISSIONS NEED WELL-TO-WHEELS APPROACH

• Conventional fuels require a relatively small
  proportion of energy for their manufacture
• Reducing C/H ratio by hydrogenation is always CO2
  negative
• Energy use and GHG emissions in production of
  alternative fuels can be substantial
• Well-to-wheels approach is needed to identify the
  best options
• Definitive answers not easy
• Results very sensitive to the input assumptions
• Ongoing research effort needed
• CONCAWE actively involved

14
ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR IC ENGINES
Source Shell, SAE Paper 2001-01-1343

• No clear advantage for alternative fuels in
  Internal Combustion Engines
• Hybrid vehicles show promise

15
BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL ENERGY CREDIT
Net Energy Saved
Probably achievable
Better
Source CONCAWE

• Benefits highly dependent on assumptions on use
  of co-products
• Use of all set-aside land in EU-15 would replace
  lt 2 of road transport fuels on an energy basis

16
BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL GHG CREDIT
GHG reduction versus conventional fuels
RME, accounting for N2O emissions, refs 45
Better
Source CONCAWE

• Assumptions on agricultural N2O emissions are
  critical
• Other measures to reduce CO2 emissions are more
  cost effective

17
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions

18
WHY ARE FUEL CELL VEHICLES ATTRACTIVE?

• Potential for high vehicle efficiency
• Hence lower CO2 emissions
• Very low or zero regulated pollutant emissions

GM HydroGen 1
TOYOTA FCHV-3

• Cautions Development at an early stage
• Conventional vehicles compete strongly
• Best source of hydrogen not yet clear

19
FUEL CELLS NEED CLEAN HYDROGEN

• Free hydrogen does not exist naturally
• Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not a source
• It has to be generated from naturally occurring
  compounds
• Implies energy use and hence GHG emissions
• Hydrogen can be delivered to the vehicle in two
  ways
• Direct hydrogen supply to the vehicle
• On-board the vehicle using a hydrogen containing
  fluid
• More work is needed on production, supply and
  storage issues
• Codes and standards for safe use also important

20
RENEWABLE HYDROGEN HAS LONG TERM POTENTIAL

• A renewable source of hydrogen would avoid carbon
  emissions

• Large scale renewable hydrogen remains a long way
  off
• Currently high cost, small volumes
• Lack of hydrogen storage/distribution
  infrastructure
• Near term options still being developed
• direct hydrogen
• on-board reforming of liquid fuels

21
FUEL CELL FUELS - THE OPTIONS
Challenges
Fuel Supplied to Vehicle
Benefits

• Simplest vehicle system
• No emissions on the vehicle
• Higher energy density
• Low emissions
• Highest energy density
• Provides highest well to wheel efficiency
• Infrastructure exists
• Low emissions

• Efficient/safe storage solution
• Emissions from hydrogen production
• Low energy density
• Infrastructure development
• Requires on-board processor
• Fuel is toxic and water soluble
• Infrastructure development
• Requires on-board processor

• Hydrogen
• Methanol
• Liquid Hydrocarbons, e.g. gasoline

On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuels appears
the best near term option
22
FUEL CELLS AND HYBRIDS OFFER CO2 IMPROVEMENTS
Source GM-Argonne study based on US
data. European study underway

• Hydrogen from electrolysis is inefficient with
  conventional electricity
• Renewable or nuclear electricity would change the
  balance

23
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY TO HYDROGEN ?

• Renewable electricity is a limited resource
• Can be used in different ways

• Producing hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles does
  not maximise the overall GHG benefit

24
TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE

• Achievements to date, future challenges
• Drivers for changes to fuels
• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles
• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options
• CONCAWE activities
• Conclusions

25
CONCAWE ACTIVITIES

• CONCAWE committed to principles that developments
  should be based on sound science, transparency
  and cost-effectiveness

Technology surveys - emissions legislation, -
fuel qualities, - engines/after-treatment
Fuel requirements of advanced engines - diesel -
gasoline
Technical input on legislative developments
Particulate emissions - DG TREN Consortium - GRPE
programme
Well to wheels analysis on alternate
fuels/vehicles - EUCAR/JRC partnership
26
CONCLUSIONS

• Conventional fuels and vehicles will dominate
  road transport for the foreseeable future
• Lower sulphur maximises the potential of advanced
  vehicle emissions systems
• Changes to other fuel properties provide little
  emissions benefit
• Increased application of biofuels needs careful
  assessment
• Fuel requirements of advanced engines need to be
  assessed as the systems are developed
• Fuel cell vehicles have promise but remain far
  from volume production
• Large scale renewable hydrogen remains far off
• On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuel is a
  promising option
• Sound well to wheels studies are key to
  evaluating future options
• CONCAWE actively supporting work in this area