Title: Impact of the Boxing Day Tsunami on Tourism in Thailand
1Impact of the Boxing Day Tsunami on Tourism in
Thailand
- Thomas A. Birkland, SUNY Albany
- Pannapa Herabat, Asian Institute of Technology,
Bangkok - Richard G. Little, University of Southern
California, Los Angeles - William A. Wallace, Rensselear Polytechnic
Institute, Troy, NY - September 2005
2We Focused on Thailand
- Highly developed infrastructure
- Important and growing tourism sector
- A maturing and developing nation and economy
- But still sensitive to external shocks
3Why Study Tourism Disasters?
- Tourism is an important part of the Thai economy
- Tourism is important to many developing economies
in S.E. Asia - Tourists are particularly vulnerable in disasters
- Tourism is particularly fragile prone to
downturns if tourists perceive an area as unsafe - Bali bombing
- Air Travel and New York City after 9/11
4Affected Area in Thailand
This graphic is rather silly, actually. It
suggests a much larger inundation zone and far
higher runup than actually occurred. One would
think from this map that Phuket was completely
overrun with water.
Source www.circleofasia.com
5Aerial View Khao Lak
6Our studys hypotheses
- We focused on the tourism sector in Thailand
- We approached the study this way The combination
of sound physical infrastructure and extensive
social capital combine to make Thailand resilient
in the face of the tsunami. - These hypotheses didnt really work to guide the
research, as we will see. - However, these features of Thailand may well be
true
7The Hypothesis Interconnected Networks
- The idea was that the beach resorts would be part
of interconnected networks of - Tourism companies
- Infrastructure
- Workers
- Suppliers
- These networks could break in a severe event
8Problems with the Hypotheses
- We assumed a big network, with many nodes, and
that a disaster would damage many parts of the
network - Resilience the ability to improvise in the face
of a disrupted network - Key to resilience Social capital
- In the tsunami, the only physical damage was to
the ends of the nodes, at the beaches - In Thailand, as in other places affected by the
tsunami, deaths and physical damage was limited
9Damage Initial Findings
- The physical infrastructure was damaged only
within about 1 to 2 km from shore - The inland infrastructure worked well
- Phuket airport closed only 30 minutes
- Minimal disruption of electricity, telecom
- Evacuation can work with sufficient warning
10Initial Findings
- Medical facilities appeared sound
- Thailand a major medical tourism destination
- Public health impacts of the tsunami were minor
- Little evidence of communicable disease in April
- Shelter in place is a viable option if
- Buildings are tall enough (4 stories)
- Buildings are constructed to withstand tsunami
waves
11Example of Damage
12Example of Damage
13Example of Damage
14Macro Scale Impacts
- Reductions in numbers of visitors
- Reduced number of direct flights to Phuket by
overseas carriers (almost all visitors now must
pass through Bangkok) - Severe declines in the number of tourists and
occupancy rates, even where rooms have been
destroyed
15Visitors to Thailand
16International Air Travel
Many airlines halted direct service to Phuket
17Domestic Air Travel
Domestic traffic at BKK and Chiang Mai continues
growth
while traffic to Phuket is down due to tsunami
(displacement to other regions in Thailand?)
18Fewer rooms available.
19combined with even fewer visitors
20yields low occupancy rates
Occupancy rates in Phang Nga drop even with fewer
rooms available
21and sharply lower tourism revenues
22Interim Conclusions
- Tourism would be expected to drop sharply on Khao
Lak beach in Phang Nga because most facilities
were severely damaged or destroyed - But tourism also drops nearly as much in Phuket,
which suffered relatively minor damage - Declines in tourism are likely due primarily to
fears on the part of tourists that facilities are
not ready for them, are unsafe, or are subject to
another tsunami - The challenge restoring confidence.
23Policy Alternatives to Save Lives and Property
- Minimum setbacks from shoreline
- Likely ineffectivemany casualties were in ocean
when tsunami struck - Building code changes
- Structural changes
- Building to allow evacuation in place
- Structural resilience
- Elevation
24The Challenges of Long-Term Recovery
- Development in harmony with natural amenities
and, perhaps, with traditional uses - Sustainability compatibility with traditional
land uses - Building confidence in the safety of the area
25The Challenges of Long-Term Recovery
- The need to be near the beach, versus the dangers
posed by the ocean - Will setbacks be required or needed? Desirable?
Enforceable? - Will setbacks from the beach be enforceable?
- Continued media distortion of the problem
26Next Steps
- Full impact on tourism unclear until next high
season - Facilities will be ready to welcome tourists on
Phuket, not Phang Nga - Will tourists return?
- Likely outcomes
- Revenues will be down as room rates and other
amenities reduce prices - Recovery of the tourist sector if confidence is
restored in the safety of the area - We will have data available to assess what
happens a year later
27The Research Team