SEARCH Understanding Change: Priorities and Needs Matt Berman, John Walsh

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SEARCH Understanding ChangePriorities and
NeedsMatt Berman, John Walsh

• SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting,
  Arlington, VA
• 28 October 2008

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State of Science and Policy Shift Since
Publication of 2005 SEARCH Implementation Strategy

• Number 1 science question in 2005 Is arctic
  environment moving from a fluctuating state to a
  new warming state? No longer in dispute.
• Question of the day is now what do we do to
  address warming climate?
• Understanding changing arctic system is critical
  to developing sound climate policy
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• What do we most need to know to serve policy
  needs?

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GCMs Underestimate Rate of Arctic Sea Ice Loss
September Sea Ice Extent IPCC 4th Assessment
Model Runs vs. Observations

• Will policy based on IPCC 4th Assessment be
  inadequate to meet climate policy goals?
• Inaccurate initial conditions for model
  simulations?
• Biased parameters?
• Misunderstood feedback relationships?

Adapted from Stroeve et al., 2007
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Atmospheric methane concentrations increased
dramatically in 2007

• Biggest increase found in Arctic suggests arctic
  cause
• Is this another poorly understood arctic feedback
  to global climate?

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Arctic sea level rising faster than global
average in IPCC 4th Assessment Report

• What are the causes?
• What are the consequences for arctic communities?

Proshutinsky et al., 2008
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Need for integrated analysis of changes in
physical environment, vegetation change, and
ecosystem dynamics
Relative herd sizes of world wild Rangifer herds
with 3 and 6 year running averages. Warming
climate associated with increasing herds in 1980s
and 1990s, but most herds decreasing after 2000.
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Over 400 new Alaska Native students moved into
the Anchorage public schools in 2008, twice the
number in any previous year

• What are the causes?
• How will people adapt to cumulative effects of
  climate change and mitigation policy, which is
  certain to raise living costs in the Arctic?

Anchorage Schools watching rural-to-urban student
influx Mon, September 29, 2008 Posted in Alaska
News Last month Anchorage School District
administrators predicted the deteriorating
economy of bush Alaska would produce a migration
of rural families to urban Alaska, especially
Anchorage. That prediction has proven more
accurate than expected. Len Anderson, KSKA -
Anchorage
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State of SEARCH Understanding Change research

• Back of the envelope assessment of progress of
  understanding change activities under each
  driving question in SEARCH Implementation Plan
• (P Priority/Phasing in
  Implementation Plan)
• 2) Use this assessment to identify major
  needs/gaps in the understanding change
  component of SEARCH

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1. Is the Arctic system moving to a new state?

• Integrative Data Assimilation for the Arctic
  System ? gridded databases for detection and
  attribution of change P1
• Observing System Sensitivity Experiments to guide
  post-IPY AON P1
• Synthesize human dimensions data on pan-Arctic
  scale P1
• -- two data assimilation projects some HD
  synthesis via SYNICE, ELOKA

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2. To what extent is the Arctic system
predictable?

• Coordinated sets of model experiments targeted at
  understanding recent changes and reducing
  uncertainties in projected changes P2
• Experiments with linked social-ecological models
  to assess ecosystem predictability and inform
  adaptation planning P2
• Integrate climate and weather datasets for
  predictive applications P3
• -- broad-view predictability/uncertainty
  activity limited, at best

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3. To what extent can recent and ongoing Arctic
changes be attributed to anthropogenic forcing?

• Controlled experiments and sensitivity tests with
  updated models, with varying GHG levels ,
  aerosols, land use, P1
• Integrate observations of terrestrial, marine
  and atmospheric variables into databases suitable
  for integrated (cross-component) diagnostic
  assessments of change P2
• -- controlled experiments/sensitivity tests
  not apparent
• -- importance of integrated databases
  recognized CADIS

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4. What is the direction and relative importance
of system feedbacks?

• Improve and expand capabilities of models used
  for Arctic simulations by enhancing formulations
  of key Arctic processes (e.g., vegetative,
  hydrologic, ocean/ice interaction, clouds,) P2
• -- many projects addressing specific
  linkages that can contribute to feedbacks
• holistic approach to feedbacks not yet
  emergent

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5. How are terrestrial and marine ecosystems and
ecosystem services affected by environmental
change and human activities?

• Synthesize information and modeling of ecosystem
  components and their interactions, including
  freshwater fluxes, resource harvests and other
  human activities P2
• Develop an understanding of how to scale process
  and mechanistic knowledge in space and time P2
• -- many projects on monitoring components
  of ecosystems and linkages within
• ecosystems integrated approach less
  apparent (CEON?)
• -- some projects addressing scaling at
  component/scale ARC scaling report

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6. How do cultural and socioeconomic systems
interact with Arctic environmental change?

• Develop socioeconomic models incorporating
  ecosystem services qualitative and quantitative
  research on resilience of socio-economic systems
  P1
• -- several projects addressing state of
  Arctic human environment
• socioeconomic modeling, ecosystem
  services, resilience much less apparent

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7. What are the most consequential links between
the Arctic and the earth systems?

• Conduct controlled model experiments to
  understand global-arctic linkages, focusing on
  key physical linkages such as sea level,
  hydrologic changes in North Atlantic, trace gas
  fluxes, etc. P2
• -- some measurements directed at
  Arctic-global connections
• (e.g., Bering Strait) otherwise
  little on Arctic-global connection,
• especially in modeling

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What seem to be the major needs?

• Connection to needs of planners and
  policymakers
• -- What do they really need?
• -- Is SEARCH headed in a direction that
  will meet these needs?
• Integrated assessment of uncertainties
• -- What are the major uncertainties --
  impediments to
• understanding, prediction -- in the
  trajectory of the Arctic system?
• -- How will these uncertainties impact uses
  of information?

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What seem to be the major needs?

• System framework for assessing feedbacks, major
  uncertainties
• How to link interactions of atmosphere, ocean,
  land?
• How to integrate physical, biological, and human
  systems?
• Connections between the Arctic and the global
  system
• Predictability assessments