LISICOS and NERACOOS in LIS

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The Role of an Observing System in the
Management of an Urbanized Estuary. James
O'Donnell University of Connecticut
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Overview

• The setting and a couple of problems
• The LISICOS infrastructure
• Long-term trends in DO
• Lobster Habitat
• Overview

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2. Previous Work
http//www.sunysb.edu/libmap Long Island Sirvaide
by Robartte Ryder, 1674
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Regional Issues

• Eutrophication and Hypoxia
• Fisheries
• Navigation and Dredging
• Energy infrastructure
• Flooding and Climate Change

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From M. Tedesco, EPA LISS
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The Fix

• Cost Benefit analysis suggest reduce N loadings
  by 50
• Model used to establish TMDL for each discharge
• The expectation is that N concentrations will
  fall, and DO will increase over the next decade.
• Costs are huge Billion dollars
• e.g. 2003- Gov. Pataki announced M83 bond
• e.g. 2006- Gov. Rell announced M87 bond
• Nitrogen Discharge trading upper East River STPS
  and less at lower East River STPs, 1.91.0
  trading ratio
• On-going Controversy
• In April, 2005 Supreme Court upheld position of
  CT and fined NYC 8,000,000

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CT NY Lobster Landings crashed in 1999
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http//www.lisicos.uconn.edu
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LISICOS Buoy Schematic
MET (Ex Rocks, WLIS, CLIS, LedgeLight)
PAR (WLIS)
Datalogger, batteries,
Near-surface sensor T,S,DO,PAR,ChlA
Mid-water T,S,DO,PAR,ChlA
Near-bottom sensor T,S,DO
NOT TO SCALE
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National Weather Service buoy data sources
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Access for mobile deviceshttp//www.lisicos.uconn
.edu/m
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Access to CT DEP WQ Survey Data
Monthly Ship Survey plan
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Long term average seasonal variation
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First Year (2004) Buoy Observations
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Filtered Records
Figure 1
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Bottom DO and Surface Current from CODAR (2006)
demonstrates the influence of surface currents on
bottom DO
Negative surface current anomaly corresponds to
positive d/dt of DO
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• Point 1
• Because of aliasing if high frequency (tidal and
  weather band) fluctuations, ship surveys are not
  able to detect small changes

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Riley Stations 1953-1960 CTDEP fisheries surveys
Note that station distribution in time is
irregular
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CT NY Lobster Landings crashed in 1999Has the
habitat changed?Combine Surveys and moored
arrays and Lobster trap data
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Analysis OI in space and time
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Temperature stress index
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• Point 2
• If you know the magnitude and variability of the
  uncertainties (the known unknowns) then you can
  build them into maps and trend estimates

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Long-term Changes in Wind Speed
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Bridgeport Wind Rose
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Changes in Frequency of winds from the NE at
Bridgeport
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Wind stress could modulate area of hypoxia ?
Wind is controlled by NAO
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• Point 3 To detect change, we need to average
  over several decadal cycles.
• Point 4 We only have a few long data sets and
  they describe the ocean forcing (river discharge,
  wind, air temperature). To predict the
  consequences of warming we need to understand the
  MECHANISMS that link that variability to
  vairibility in things we care about.

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Summary

1. Ship surveys, by themselves, are inadequate.
2. We need to know the high frequency variability in
   things we care about (nutrients, DO etc.)
3. We cant expect the management impact to be
   detected for decades.
4. We need to understand mechanisms to exploit the
   long term records that we have.

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Main Users and Collaborators

• CT DEP
• Water quality monitoring and data sharing
• Bottom temperatures, habitat
• EPA LIS Program
• Transport modeling
• Ecosystem model evaluation
• USCG
• SAR
• National Weather Service
• Cross-Sound Ferry
• LIS fishing industry
• LIS sailing fleet

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Upcoming Collaborations/leverage in summer 2009
(funded projects)

• Pete Raymond, Yale
• CO2 flux at CLIS and regular sampling. Funded by
  Yale and Peabody Museum
• Mark Altabet, U. Mass, Dartmouth
• N2 flux and budget at WLIS with GTDs. EPA and Sea
  Grant
• Kamazima Lwiza, Stonybrook Univ.
• Mixing and product in WLIS, EPA and Sea Grant
• Bob Wilson, Stonybrook Univ.
• Circulation in LIS, EPA and Sea Grant
• Jim ODonnell, UConn
• Variability in mixing rates in Western LIS
• Deployment of EPA nutrient sensors