Sustainable Design in Engineering

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Sustainable Design in Engineering

• ECE 0909.403 - Lecture 2b
• Global Warming The Underpinning Science
• 31 January 2002
• Peter Mark Jansson PP PE MScEng

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Aims

• Review the Scientific Basis for Climate Change
• Broaden Understanding of the Factors Surrounding
  Climate Change
• Review Potential Impacts of Scenarios
• Understand the Opportunities for Mitigation
• Discuss What Engineers Can/Should Do
• Have Fun

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What is Climate Change?

• In IPCC usage (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change) Climate Change refers to any change in
  climate over time, whether due to natural
  variability or as a result of human activity
• The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the
  World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the
  United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) with a
  very specific charge

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IPCC Charter

• i) To assess available scientific and
  socio-economic information on climate change and
  its impacts and the options for mitigating
  climate change and adapting to it
• ii) To provide, on request, scientific /
  technical / socio-economic advice to the
  Conference of Parties to the United Nations
  Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  Duncan Projections - 2004 Peak
• Houghton, et. al., Climate Change 2001,
  Cambridge University Press

5
IPCC Report (3rd Assessment)

• Approved in January 2001 by IPCC Member
  Governments (99 countries participating)
• Findings of many hundreds of Scientists -
• 122 Coordinating Lead Authors
• 515 Contributing Authors
• 21 Review Editors
• 420 Expert Reviewers

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What Does the Report Say?

• Over the 20th century
• Global average surface temperature (average of
  near surface air over land and sea surface
  temperature) has increased since 1861
• Since 1900 the increase has been 0.6o C /- 0.2o
  C
• Globally it is very likely (90-99 probability)
  that
• a) The 1990s was the warmest decade and
• b) 1998 the warmest year in the instrumental
  record
• since 1861
• Likely (66-90) that increase during 20th century
  in North Hemisphere is largest in 1000 years and
  a), b) as well

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IPCC Report Continued

• On average, Between 1950 and 1993
• Night-time daily minimum temperature over land
  increased by 0.2o C per decade
• This is twice the rate of daily daytime maximum
  temperatures (0.1o C)
• Lengthened freeze-free season in mid high
  latitudes
• Since satellite record and balloons (1979)
• Lowest 8 km of atmosphere up 0.05oC per decade
• Surface temperature is rising 0.15oC per decade

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Areas of Change

• Snow Cover and Ice Formation -
• Very likely (90-99) decrease of 10 in the
  extent of snow cover since 1960
• Very likely (90-99) reduction in lake and river
  ice cover in mid and high latitudes of NE over
  20th century
• Tide and Ocean Heat Content
• Global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2
  meters during the 20th century
• Global ocean heat content rose since data has
  been collected in the 1950s
• Increases in precipitation (1 pd) and clouds (2)

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Radiative Forcing

• What is it?

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Many Factors force Climate Change

• Atmospheric Composition
• Surface Reflectance
• Solar Variation

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Atmospheric Composition

• CO2
• CH4
• N2O
• Sulfates

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Present Evidence

• Global Warming is mostly from Anthropogenic
  sources

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Future Scenarios

• Quite a range considered

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Impacts

• Global
• U.S.

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Mitigation

• Efficiency Improvements
• Fuel conversion
• End-Use
• Hybrid vehicles
• Low carbon fuel development
• Wind turbines
• Nuclear technologies

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Discussion

• What can design engineers do?
• By design
• For mitigation of impacts

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What is LCA?

• A life cycle assessment is an environmental
  analysis of a product that includes
• Goal
• Scope
• Inventory
• Impact assessment