The Nexus Between Knowledge Management and Futures Studies

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The Nexus Between Knowledge Management and
Futures Studies

• Address to 3rd ACT-KM Conference
• Canberra, 22 October 2002

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Propositions

• Futures studies are knowledge activities
  requiring management competencies.
• Futures studies are people-centric, and
  explicitly address the difficulties in
  elicitation and codification of knowledge
• Futures studies methods offer alternative
  approaches to knowledge management practice

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Knowledge Activities as a Journey Embracing
Multiple Perspectives
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Knowledge Activities as Integrative
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Knowledge Activities in Need of Helps to
Support Understanding

• Neither the naked hand nor the understanding
  left to itself can effect much. It is by
  instruments and helps that work is best done,
  which are as much wanted for the understanding as
  for the hand.
• (Francis Bacon, 1620)

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Futures Studies in Context
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Futures Studies Principles

• is not about predicting the future,
• creates a choice of futures by outlining
  alternative possibilities,
• is a foundation for planning,
• is interdisciplinary,
• is often based on both imagination and historical
  knowledge,
• is often aimed at shaping present action.

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Typology of Futures Studies Methods
Eg. Scenario Analysis
Eg. Fisher-Pry Analysis
Eg. Analysis by Analogy
Eg. Content Analysis
Eg. Delphi Studies
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Knowledge Principles

• Knowledge originates and resides in people's
  minds (Tom Davenport)
• Knowledge is volunteered, never conscripted
  (Peter Drucker)
• We know more than we can say and we can say more
  that we can write (Michael Polanyi)
• We only know what we know when we need to know it
  (Dave Snowden)
• Knowledge itself is power (Francis Bacon)

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Knowledge Processes
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Challenges in Knowledge Management

• Supply Side Issues
• Knowledge elicitation
• Knowledge codification
• Knowledge transfer
• Demand Side Issues
• Knowledge creation
• Bridging the knowing-doing gap

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Knowledge Elicitation

• Use of open-ended questions
• Use of remarkable people
• Thinking outside of the box
• Envisioning the possible
• Connecting with and shining light upon existing
  mental models

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Knowledge Codification
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Knowledge Transfer

• Strategic conversation a shared language and a
  common view about the future that can be the
  basis of continuing discussion and exploration
• Building bridges to bring together knowledge and
  expertise in many people across all areas and
  activities in order to increase collective
  well-being

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Knowledge Creation

• Generates insights that may not otherwise be
  accessible eg. signposts which are events,
  occurrences or observations that can be scanned
  in the real world
• Avoids the structural inertia of forecasting,
  which presumes that the future can be described
  from the past and the present

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Signposts to Alternate Futures
I
III
IV
II
2020
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Today
2001
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Bridging the Knowing-Doing Gap

• Catalyst for innovation, creativity and
  future-focused thinking
• Wind tunneling to discriminate enduring value
  drivers from a plethora of variables

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Test Strategic Settingsby Wind-tunneling
Scenarios Conditions in the wind tunnel
Aircraft is the intended or possible strategy
Are your assumptions still valid?
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Cautionary Tales

• Creation of organisational blind spots from
  believing scenarios
• Creation of informed elites
• Creation of communication difficulties
• Marginalisation of knowledge activity in
  isolation of organisational decision making

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Concluding Thoughts

• The field of futures studies can provide helps
  and instruments for some of the more
  challenging aspects of KM practice
• The essentially people-centric approaches of
  futures studies may offer a counter-balance to
  technology-centric approaches of the KM industry
• The artifacts of futures studies respond well to
  knowledge dynamics

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Any Questions?

• Brett Peppler
• Managing Director
• Intelligent Futures Pty Ltd
• Tel [phone]
• Fax [phone]
• Email ceo_at_ifutures.com.au
• Web http//www.ifutures.com.au