AGING AND THE CHANGING FACE OF SUBURBIA Stephen M' Golant, PhD University of Florida

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AGING AND THE CHANGING FACE OF SUBURBIAStephen
M. Golant, PhDUniversity of Florida

• Presentation at New York Institute of Technology,
  Center for Gerontology Geriatrics, First Annual
  Conference on Aging Society, September 18, 2008
• Contact golant_at_geog.ufl.edu 352-392-0494 -218

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• IN DENIAL IM NOT GETTING OLD

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But Long Island Cannot Be in Denial

• Marked the birth of post-World War II suburbia
• Levittown legacyno potato famine here
• Long Island, particularly Nassau county,
  categorized as a first or first tier suburb
  by researchers at Brookings Institution and Urban
  Land Institute
• Earliest settled areas outside U.S. city centers
• Share of first suburbs largest in Northeast and
  Midwest

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Long Island as First or First Tier Suburb

• Compared with newer suburbs, first suburbs
  experience
• Faster growth rates of its older population
• Slower growth of younger populations
• Result in higher concentrations of older
  populations
• Most population increases Hispanics, Asians,
  Blacks
• Highly developed, but older infrastructure
  requires reinvestment and revitalization
• More fragmented governance multiple
  jurisdictions
• Long IslandMature statesperson of American
  suburbs
• Personification Memorable line of Al Pacino, in
  1992 movie, Scent of a Woman Ive been around,
  you know.

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Predicting the Aging of American Suburbs

• In 1970s, I predicted suburbanization of future
  older Americans
• Not a difficult prediction
• Reflected two decades of young white families
  moving into suburban homes
• Once moving to suburbs, city return was unlikely
• Residential moves occurred within or to other
  suburbs
• Growth by aging in place a demographic
  characterization
• Today, almost 8 out 10 age 65 persons live in
  urban areas
• Over 6 out of 10 live in suburban communities

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Recent Aging of Long Islands Population

• Since at least 1990s your older population
  growing faster than rest of population
• In this decade, 2000-2007
• Population under age 60 declined by 2
• Age 60 plus population grew by almost 11
• Migration exchanges contribute to losses of young
• But Suffolk aging faster
• Contrast with growth of older persons in the new
  suburbs of Southern and Western statesretirement
  destinations

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Long Island Growth of Older Adults, 2000-2007

• Source 2007 American Community Survey

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Aging in Place Caution About Overgeneralizing

• Long Island receives substantial numbers of older
  in-migrants, especially in their mid-70s and
  older
• Example End of 1990s, Suffolk county had more
  age 75 in-migrants than out-migrants
• Two reasonsvery different groups of older
  consumers
• Return migration older, alone, chronic health
  problems and impairments returning to seek family
  assistance
• Lifestyle attractions vacation/second homes,
  affordable condos, and adult retirement
  communities
• Recent housing downturn Fewer ?? owned homes
  sold by older persons seeking higher prices

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Current Demographics, 2006

• Higher concentrations of older (age 60)
  population than nationally or state of New York
• Almost 19 are age 60 plushighest in over 20
  years
• Compared with nation or the state of New York
• Higher concentrations of baby boomers (in 40s
  50s)
• Lower concentrations of younger workers (in 20s
  30s)
• Similar concentrations of your youngest
  populations (under age 20)

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Age and Cohort Structure of Populations in Long
Island,New York State, and the United States,
2006

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Population Projections for Long Islands Old

• A SPLIT PERSONALITY IN THE FUTURE
• In 2025, most of todays baby boomers will be in
  their 60s and early 70s, practicing active and
  energetic life-styles
• Ten years later in 2035, they will be in their
  mid-70s and older at risk of experiencing
  difficulties living independently
• THE NUMBERS
• 2005-2025, Long Islands age 60 residents will
  increase by 39, representing 25 of its 2025
  population.
• 2005-2035, Long Islands age 70 residents will
  increase by 54, representing 15 of its 2035
  population.
• Suffolks older residents growing much faster
  than Nassaus

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Profile of Todays Age 65 Long Island Residents

• Very high share of older homeowners
• Top-heavy in single-family detached dwellings
• Predominantly white, but population steadily
  becoming ethnically and racially more diverse
• More highly educatedB.A. degree or better
• Relatively small share of households living alone
• Below 150 level poverty rates are relatively low
  by national standards
• But distinctive pockets of neighborhood poverty

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• AGING SUBURBS
• AGING POPULATIONS
• OUT OF SYNC?

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Aging Populations Predictable Changes

• Smaller householdschildren depart, spouses die
• In 1990s, a 65 increase in age 75 plus Nassau
  homeowners living alone 41 increase in Suffolk
• Older adults raising their grandchildren 7 - 8
  of households in Nassau Suffolk
• Older adults seek new life-styleshedonistic,
  part-time occupations, community volunteerism
• New chronic health problems and impairments
  limiting ability to live independently
• Income constraints more likely, especially for
  women

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But Dwellings and Environs Often Dont Change

• Houses dont shrink in size oversized dwellings
  only partly used, but still require extensive
  upkeep
• Become less accessible, safer, energy-saving
  places
• Style obsolescencepeter pan interior design
  features
• Design modifications and care/exercise programs
  not introduced to reduce the risk of falling
• Dwellings not upgraded to incorporate new
  lighting, air/heating, and smart home
  technologies
• Large street setbacks separation of residential,
  commercial, and recreational areas
• Limited initiatives pedestrian-friendly
  communities, public transit, home modification
  programs

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But Dwellings and Environs Often Dont Change
(continued)

• Unavailable affordable housing targeting diverse
  elder consumerswith downsizing supportive
  service needs
• Rentals, condos, NORCs, congregate, assisted
  living
• No dedicated funding source for affordable elder
  housing
• Private developers offered inadequate incentives
  to create more affordable housing accommodations
• More mixed-use development zoning opportunities
• Higher allowable residential densities
• Zoning variations e.g. accessory units, parking
  slots
• Inadequate cooperation among stakeholdershousing,
  planning, social and health care professionals,
  politicians

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But Dwellings and Environs Often Dont Change
(continued)

• NIMBY (not in my backyard) responses
• Inadequate care capacity hospitals, clinics,
  emergency departments, preventative care,
  geriatric care
• Limited outreach/counseling for vulnerable old
• Absent public awareness campaigns communicating
  needs and solutions to residents and stakeholders
  
• IN SHORT LIMITED EFFORTS TO MAKE
  ELDER-FRIENDLY OR LIVABLE COMMUNITIES

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Dwellings and Communities Change, But in Ways
Contrary to Aging Successfully

• Dwellings become oldermore demanding maintenance
  and repair needs
• Owners less able or motivated to make their own
  repairs
• Year 2000
• In Nassau 75 lived in dwellings built before
  1960
• In Suffolk 43 lived in dwellings built before
  1960
• Difficult to find honest, reliable workers
• More prevalent elder abuse and neglect
• Friends, family members depart to other
  destinations
• Congested roads become more difficult to navigate

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Dwellings and Communities Change, But in Ways
Contrary to Aging Successfully (cont)

• Dwelling cost burdens increasein 2006
• 45 of age 65 owners pay 30 or more of
  household income on dwelling costs in Nassau in
  Suffolk, 44
• 55 of age 65 renters pay 30 or more of
  household income on dwelling costs in Nassau in
  Suffolk, 68
• Contracting household Incomes
• Older owners rely on paid rather than sweat labor
• Rising property taxes, reflecting higher property
  values
• Higher apartment rents
• Rising home energy costs
• Scarcer, more expensive developable land

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The Assets of Long IslandTempering
Generalizations About Aging Suburbs

• Your survey research shows (contrary to AARP)
• A majority of your middle- and late-middle aged
  residents would prefer more compact neighborhoods
• With semi-detached dwellings, condos, townhouses,
  or apartments
• Your suburbs are not just residential
• A very large and diverse regional economy
• Many small commercial centersdowntowns, mixed
  residential and nonresidential land use
  developments

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The Assets of Long IslandTempering
Generalizations About Aging Suburbs (cont)

• Higher residential densities allow for economies
  of scale in the location and delivery of workers
  and services
• Fueled by higher vehicle fuel costs and
  increasing shortage of developable land
• Many sources of social capital
• Highly educated and higher-income residents
• Innovative leaders from your corporate and
  nonprofit sectors

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• SUBURBAN COMMUNITIES
• HAVE CHOICES

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Its Possible to Influence Future

• Aging in place or moving decisions by older
  adults are not dictated by geneticsor even by
  AARP
• Reflect decisions by
• Older adults
• Family members, and
• Stakeholders in the private and public sectors
• Consequently, it is possible to influence
• The magnitude of in- and out-migration moves of
  both younger and older populations
• The demographic profiles of in- and out-migrants

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The Fundamental Choices for Long Island Suburbs

• Assisting older persons to age in place by making
  their dwellings and communities more livable
• Making it more feasible for the adult children of
  older persons to remain on Long Island
• Increasing availability of affordable housing for
  younger populationsboth living on Long Island
  and other places
• Increasing availability of affordable housing for
  older populationsboth living on Long Island and
  other places
• Encouraging older adults to leave Long Island
• CONFLICTS YOUNG, OLD, IMMIGRANT POPULATIONS

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HOW CONFLICTS WILL BE RESOLVEDSpoken or
Unspoken Aged Stereotypes Influencing Your
Stakeholders
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Positive Stereotypic Images of Aging Population

• Active, healthy, and vigorous
• Civically engaged in their communities (e.g.,
  volunteerism)
• Valued members of work force (full- or part-time)
• Valued community leaders
• Contribute to stable, viable, and desirable
  neighborhoods
• Contribute to economic growth and vitality

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Negative Stereotypic Images of Aging Population

• Chronic health problems and limiting impairments
• Park benches, rocking chairs, and wheelchairs
• More doctors, direct care workers, clinics, and
  hospitals
• Responsible for labor shortages
• Aging housing stock and neighborhoods prevented
  from rejuvenation and gentrification
• Opposition to school and infrastructure financing
• Drain on government budgets
• Contribute to economic decline and stagnation

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TOWARD THE FUTURE

• About six decades ago, Long Island became
  exemplar of traditional suburban America
• Realized dreams of affordable homeownership by
  young working American families
• Today, it has the opportunity to demonstrate how
  older suburbs can successfully cope with their
  aging populations
• Americaand especially its other older
  suburbswill be watching