Title: AGING AND THE CHANGING FACE OF SUBURBIA Stephen M' Golant, PhD University of Florida
1AGING AND THE CHANGING FACE OF SUBURBIAStephen
M. Golant, PhDUniversity of Florida
- Presentation at New York Institute of Technology,
Center for Gerontology Geriatrics, First Annual
Conference on Aging Society, September 18, 2008 - Contact golant_at_geog.ufl.edu 352-392-0494 -218
2- IN DENIAL IM NOT GETTING OLD
3But Long Island Cannot Be in Denial
- Marked the birth of post-World War II suburbia
- Levittown legacyno potato famine here
- Long Island, particularly Nassau county,
categorized as a first or first tier suburb
by researchers at Brookings Institution and Urban
Land Institute - Earliest settled areas outside U.S. city centers
- Share of first suburbs largest in Northeast and
Midwest
4Long Island as First or First Tier Suburb
- Compared with newer suburbs, first suburbs
experience - Faster growth rates of its older population
- Slower growth of younger populations
- Result in higher concentrations of older
populations - Most population increases Hispanics, Asians,
Blacks - Highly developed, but older infrastructure
requires reinvestment and revitalization - More fragmented governance multiple
jurisdictions - Long IslandMature statesperson of American
suburbs - Personification Memorable line of Al Pacino, in
1992 movie, Scent of a Woman Ive been around,
you know.
5Predicting the Aging of American Suburbs
- In 1970s, I predicted suburbanization of future
older Americans - Not a difficult prediction
- Reflected two decades of young white families
moving into suburban homes - Once moving to suburbs, city return was unlikely
- Residential moves occurred within or to other
suburbs - Growth by aging in place a demographic
characterization - Today, almost 8 out 10 age 65 persons live in
urban areas - Over 6 out of 10 live in suburban communities
6Recent Aging of Long Islands Population
- Since at least 1990s your older population
growing faster than rest of population - In this decade, 2000-2007
- Population under age 60 declined by 2
- Age 60 plus population grew by almost 11
- Migration exchanges contribute to losses of young
- But Suffolk aging faster
- Contrast with growth of older persons in the new
suburbs of Southern and Western statesretirement
destinations
7Long Island Growth of Older Adults, 2000-2007
- Source 2007 American Community Survey
8Aging in Place Caution About Overgeneralizing
- Long Island receives substantial numbers of older
in-migrants, especially in their mid-70s and
older - Example End of 1990s, Suffolk county had more
age 75 in-migrants than out-migrants - Two reasonsvery different groups of older
consumers - Return migration older, alone, chronic health
problems and impairments returning to seek family
assistance - Lifestyle attractions vacation/second homes,
affordable condos, and adult retirement
communities - Recent housing downturn Fewer ?? owned homes
sold by older persons seeking higher prices
9Current Demographics, 2006
- Higher concentrations of older (age 60)
population than nationally or state of New York - Almost 19 are age 60 plushighest in over 20
years - Compared with nation or the state of New York
- Higher concentrations of baby boomers (in 40s
50s) - Lower concentrations of younger workers (in 20s
30s) - Similar concentrations of your youngest
populations (under age 20)
10Age and Cohort Structure of Populations in Long
Island,New York State, and the United States,
2006
11Population Projections for Long Islands Old
- A SPLIT PERSONALITY IN THE FUTURE
- In 2025, most of todays baby boomers will be in
their 60s and early 70s, practicing active and
energetic life-styles - Ten years later in 2035, they will be in their
mid-70s and older at risk of experiencing
difficulties living independently - THE NUMBERS
- 2005-2025, Long Islands age 60 residents will
increase by 39, representing 25 of its 2025
population. - 2005-2035, Long Islands age 70 residents will
increase by 54, representing 15 of its 2035
population. - Suffolks older residents growing much faster
than Nassaus
12Profile of Todays Age 65 Long Island Residents
- Very high share of older homeowners
- Top-heavy in single-family detached dwellings
- Predominantly white, but population steadily
becoming ethnically and racially more diverse - More highly educatedB.A. degree or better
- Relatively small share of households living alone
- Below 150 level poverty rates are relatively low
by national standards - But distinctive pockets of neighborhood poverty
13- AGING SUBURBS
-
- AGING POPULATIONS
- OUT OF SYNC?
14Aging Populations Predictable Changes
- Smaller householdschildren depart, spouses die
- In 1990s, a 65 increase in age 75 plus Nassau
homeowners living alone 41 increase in Suffolk - Older adults raising their grandchildren 7 - 8
of households in Nassau Suffolk - Older adults seek new life-styleshedonistic,
part-time occupations, community volunteerism - New chronic health problems and impairments
limiting ability to live independently - Income constraints more likely, especially for
women
15But Dwellings and Environs Often Dont Change
- Houses dont shrink in size oversized dwellings
only partly used, but still require extensive
upkeep - Become less accessible, safer, energy-saving
places - Style obsolescencepeter pan interior design
features - Design modifications and care/exercise programs
not introduced to reduce the risk of falling - Dwellings not upgraded to incorporate new
lighting, air/heating, and smart home
technologies - Large street setbacks separation of residential,
commercial, and recreational areas - Limited initiatives pedestrian-friendly
communities, public transit, home modification
programs
16But Dwellings and Environs Often Dont Change
(continued)
- Unavailable affordable housing targeting diverse
elder consumerswith downsizing supportive
service needs - Rentals, condos, NORCs, congregate, assisted
living - No dedicated funding source for affordable elder
housing - Private developers offered inadequate incentives
to create more affordable housing accommodations - More mixed-use development zoning opportunities
- Higher allowable residential densities
- Zoning variations e.g. accessory units, parking
slots - Inadequate cooperation among stakeholdershousing,
planning, social and health care professionals,
politicians
17But Dwellings and Environs Often Dont Change
(continued)
- NIMBY (not in my backyard) responses
- Inadequate care capacity hospitals, clinics,
emergency departments, preventative care,
geriatric care - Limited outreach/counseling for vulnerable old
- Absent public awareness campaigns communicating
needs and solutions to residents and stakeholders
- IN SHORT LIMITED EFFORTS TO MAKE
ELDER-FRIENDLY OR LIVABLE COMMUNITIES
18Dwellings and Communities Change, But in Ways
Contrary to Aging Successfully
- Dwellings become oldermore demanding maintenance
and repair needs - Owners less able or motivated to make their own
repairs - Year 2000
- In Nassau 75 lived in dwellings built before
1960 - In Suffolk 43 lived in dwellings built before
1960 - Difficult to find honest, reliable workers
- More prevalent elder abuse and neglect
- Friends, family members depart to other
destinations - Congested roads become more difficult to navigate
19Dwellings and Communities Change, But in Ways
Contrary to Aging Successfully (cont)
- Dwelling cost burdens increasein 2006
- 45 of age 65 owners pay 30 or more of
household income on dwelling costs in Nassau in
Suffolk, 44 - 55 of age 65 renters pay 30 or more of
household income on dwelling costs in Nassau in
Suffolk, 68 - Contracting household Incomes
- Older owners rely on paid rather than sweat labor
- Rising property taxes, reflecting higher property
values - Higher apartment rents
- Rising home energy costs
- Scarcer, more expensive developable land
20The Assets of Long IslandTempering
Generalizations About Aging Suburbs
- Your survey research shows (contrary to AARP)
- A majority of your middle- and late-middle aged
residents would prefer more compact neighborhoods - With semi-detached dwellings, condos, townhouses,
or apartments - Your suburbs are not just residential
- A very large and diverse regional economy
- Many small commercial centersdowntowns, mixed
residential and nonresidential land use
developments
21The Assets of Long IslandTempering
Generalizations About Aging Suburbs (cont)
- Higher residential densities allow for economies
of scale in the location and delivery of workers
and services - Fueled by higher vehicle fuel costs and
increasing shortage of developable land - Many sources of social capital
- Highly educated and higher-income residents
- Innovative leaders from your corporate and
nonprofit sectors
22- SUBURBAN COMMUNITIES
- HAVE CHOICES
23Its Possible to Influence Future
- Aging in place or moving decisions by older
adults are not dictated by geneticsor even by
AARP - Reflect decisions by
- Older adults
- Family members, and
- Stakeholders in the private and public sectors
- Consequently, it is possible to influence
- The magnitude of in- and out-migration moves of
both younger and older populations - The demographic profiles of in- and out-migrants
24The Fundamental Choices for Long Island Suburbs
- Assisting older persons to age in place by making
their dwellings and communities more livable - Making it more feasible for the adult children of
older persons to remain on Long Island - Increasing availability of affordable housing for
younger populationsboth living on Long Island
and other places - Increasing availability of affordable housing for
older populationsboth living on Long Island and
other places - Encouraging older adults to leave Long Island
- CONFLICTS YOUNG, OLD, IMMIGRANT POPULATIONS
25HOW CONFLICTS WILL BE RESOLVEDSpoken or
Unspoken Aged Stereotypes Influencing Your
Stakeholders
26Positive Stereotypic Images of Aging Population
- Active, healthy, and vigorous
- Civically engaged in their communities (e.g.,
volunteerism) - Valued members of work force (full- or part-time)
- Valued community leaders
- Contribute to stable, viable, and desirable
neighborhoods - Contribute to economic growth and vitality
27Negative Stereotypic Images of Aging Population
- Chronic health problems and limiting impairments
- Park benches, rocking chairs, and wheelchairs
- More doctors, direct care workers, clinics, and
hospitals - Responsible for labor shortages
- Aging housing stock and neighborhoods prevented
from rejuvenation and gentrification - Opposition to school and infrastructure financing
- Drain on government budgets
- Contribute to economic decline and stagnation
28TOWARD THE FUTURE
- About six decades ago, Long Island became
exemplar of traditional suburban America - Realized dreams of affordable homeownership by
young working American families - Today, it has the opportunity to demonstrate how
older suburbs can successfully cope with their
aging populations - Americaand especially its other older
suburbswill be watching