Water%20Resources%20and%20International%20Conflict:%20Game%20Theory

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Water Resources and International Conflict Game
Theory

• Kristina Schneider
• CE 384D

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The wars of the next century will be about
water - Ismail Serageldin, Vice President of
the World Bank in a 1995 New York Times Article.
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Overview

• The Nature of Water Resource Conflict
• Game Theory A Brief Introduction
• Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River
  Basin
• Conclusions

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The Nature of Water Resource Conflict

• Water is not contained in political boundaries.
• Boundary over which rivers cross!

http//maps.esri.com/esri/arcview/world/world.html
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Natural Limits

• Factors that will determine the speed at which
  societies reach the bounds of their water
  resources
• Level of development desired
• Absolute availability Water
• Population supplied
• The quality of the water

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Resource Rivalry

• Potential causes of water disputes
• Amount the resource is shared among the nations
• Degree of scarcity of water
• Relative power of each nation
• Accessibility of alternative fresh water
  supplies.

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Will War result?

• Most likely not!
• It is not strategically rational.
• It is hydrographically ineffective.
• It is economically infeasible.
• Even if violence does not result, water resource
  inequalities still
• Causes more poverty
• Shortens lives
• Decreases the stability of the nation

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Game Theory A Brief Introduction

• Game theory is a mathematical analysis of any
  situation involving a conflict of interest, with
  the intent of indicating the optimal choices
  that, under given conditions, will lead to a
  desired outcome.
• MSN Encarta
• Game theory is study of how players should
  rationally play games. Each player would like the
  game end in an outcome with gives them as large
  as a payoff as possible.
• - Straffin, Game Theory and Strategy

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Game Theory A Brief Introduction

• The decision makers are called players.
• Two person or multi-person games exist.
• The payoff, or outcome, is happens at the end of
  a game.
• Solutions of a game can be found at equilibrium
  points.

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Game Theory Assumptions

• Each player can chose between two or more clear
  choices.
• Every decision will lead to a win, a lose, or a
  draw.
• The rules of the game and the payoffs for each
  player are known by all participants.
• The players will act rationally.

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Game Theory Payoffs

• Payoffs are often represented in matrix form.
• Payoffs determine what type of game is played.
• Zero-sum Games
• One player wins while the other loses.
• Non-zero-sum Games
• No straight forward answer exists.

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Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River
Basin
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The River Basins Unique Challenges Former USSR
Republics

• Water Allocation Schemas were created with the
  following assumptions
• The river was contained in one nation
• Hydrotechincal facilities were developed to
  serve irrigation needs
• Water deficits would be alleviated by transfers
  from Siberia
• Downstream countries would provide upstream
  countries with heating fuels.

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The Toktogul Reservoir

• Main reservoir along the river
• Provides irrigation storage Kazakhstan and
  Uzbekistan
• Provides power - Kyrgyzstan

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Toktogul Model

• Use Multiobjective Water Resource Allocation
  Model for the Toktogul Reservoir to find payoffs.
• Three scenarios
• Maximize irrigation needs
• Maximize power generation for both summer and
  winter.
• Baseline no dam exists.
• Two flow regimes
• NNNNN
• NNDNN

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Economic Results of the Model
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Game Theory Syr Darya

• Two person non-zero-sum game
• Players
• Downstream - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
• Upstream Kyrgyzstan
• Only Irrigation and Power Scenarios considered

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Payoff Matrices for Application of to the Syr
Darya River Basin
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Payoff Polygons for Application to the Syr Darya
River Basin
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Analysis of Game Theory Application

• Payoffs are not the correct outcomes analyze the
  game.
• The multiple variables increase the complication
  of the analysis.
• If you ignore this, a clear equilibrium point
  exists at IP.
• This is a logical choice.

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Conclusions

• International Water Conflict will occur.
• Conflict situations will not be violent.
• Game theory is a valid tool to help in water
  resource decision making.
• The correct payoffs must be used to receive a
  correct solution to a game.