Michael Hayes

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Drought Chasing An NDMC Perspective on Future
Drought Activities
Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation
Center School of Natural Resources
Photo Melissa Widhalm, NDMC
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Acknowledgements

• Workshop Planning Committee (David Legler, Wayne
  Higgins, Kingste Mo, Mike Halpert, Mark Svoboda,
  Dave Gutzler, Ann Fiedler, Mike Hayes)
• Ann Fiedler, Nicole Wall
• Deb Wood
• NDMC staff and students
• Jacki Loomis
• Licorice International
• Holiday Inn

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Nebraska (Heres What I Said)

• Home of the Unicameral
• Home of the 6th Great Lake
• Sandhills
• Kool-Aid, CliffNotes
• Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), Cabelas,
  Union Pacific (Worlds largest rail yard in North
  Platte), Valmont Industries

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Nebraska (What I Did Not Say)

• BEEF
• Cranes
• Storms

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Photo Ken Dewey, UNL
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Photo Cimarron County, Oklahoma Gary McManus,
Oklahoma Climatological Survey, late June, 2008
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Photo Ken Dewey, UNL
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Photo Ken Dewey, UNL
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Photo Ken Dewey, UNL
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Photo Ken Dewey, UNL
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Photo Melissa Widhalm, NDMC
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Look Backto Look Ahead

• Kelly Redmond
• Where are we now?
• How did we get here?
• What is the historical perspective for the
  current situation?
• What are the most likely outcomes from the
  current situation?
• What is it going to be like next week, next
  month, next year?

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Look Backto Look Ahead

• Monitoring, early warning, and prediction
• Foundation of a drought mitigation plan
• Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers
• Risk and impact assessment
• Who and what is at risk and why?
• Mitigation and response
• Programs and actions to reduce future drought
  impacts
• Programs and actions during drought events

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Look Backto Look Ahead

• Monitoring, early warning, and prediction
• Foundation of a drought mitigation plan
• Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers
• Risk and impact assessment
• Who and what is at risk and why?
• Mitigation and response
• Programs and actions to reduce future drought
  impacts
• Programs and actions during drought events

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Prediction

• Drought Planning Continuum

Response
Mitigation
Increasing need for more reliable seasonal
forecasts/outlooks
Increasing need for timely, reliable
climate/water supply assessments
Increasing need for higher resolution analysis
for policy/decision support
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Risk and Impact Assessment
No systematic collection and analysis of social,
environmental, and economic data focused on the
impacts of drought within the United States
exists today. p. 5
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Mitigation

• Planning
• Monitoring
• Supply augmentation
• Infrastructure improvements
• Demand reduction
• Education
• Communication
• Coordination
• Legislation

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Mitigation

• Nebraska examples (1998-2000 Drought Plan
  revision to incorporate mitigation strategies)
• Farm Crisis Hotline
• Soil Moisture Network
• Vulnerable Water Systems

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Mitigation

• Council of Governors Policy Advisors (1997)
  The concept of mitigation will be difficult
  unless officials understand the economic impacts
  and the positive quantitative benefits of
  mitigation actions.
• Multihazard Mitigation Council Report (2005) a
  dollar spenton hazard mitigation...provides the
  nation about 4 in future benefits. 14 ratio

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Act 238 (2007)

• 1 million appropriated for drought mitigation
  for each county
• 22 projects identified including water system
  improve-ments, stormwater reclamation, ditch
  improvements, wildland fire, education, monitoring

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The Trend Toward Local
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River Basin Drought Planning Information
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Additional Issues

• Gregg Garfin Growth
• Colorado 6-25 acres going out of production
  every hour
• Not whether Colorado will grow, but how!
• Climate Change
• Temperature matters!
• Complexity
• Andrea Ray Conversation
• NIDIS
• Individual Livelihoods

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Theres nothing more frightening than being
without water. Mayor Campbell, Edina, MO, May
1989
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