Population Dynamics and Natural

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Population Dynamics and Natural Hazards
Applying Geospatial Analysis
Prepared by ISCIENCES LLC An examination of the
use of GIS to explore linkages between
environment and security

• The Digital Earth
• Geospatial Analysis Environment and
  Security in India

for further information contact Douglas S. Way
(principal investigator) way_at_isciences.com or
Richard C. Cicone cicone_at_isciences.com
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• Viewing Global Population Models
• TerraViva! Spinning Earth digital Earth on the
  desktop
• Free download at http//www.terraviva.net
• Unique visualization of ORNL and CIESIN/UNEP
• Global Population Models

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Viewing Global Population Model
ORNL Landscan GP 98
CIESIN GPW 1990
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• An Application of Geospatial Analysis
• Environmental Indications and Warning
• Environmental Issues - Societal Stress
• Food production, freshwater resources,
  water/air pollution,
• land use change (deforestation,
  desertification, urbanization)
• Affect public health, agriculture and industrial
  development,
• demographic patterns, local through national
  political
• alliances,economic growth, infrastructure
  planning,
• crisis response capabilities.
• Affect political, economic and social dynamics
• And are exacerbated by
• continued rapid population growth and migration
• natural hazards and weather variability (shock)
  events

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• Value of GIS Technology
• Environmental Issues are spatial in nature with
  global
• to local origins
• Environmental Issues are dynamic (process and
  time series)
• Environmental Issues are subject to natural
  changes,
• anthropogenic stressors and shock events
• GIS facilitates trend analysis and what if
  scenarios
• GIS provides a strong interface to remote
  sensing sources
• Visualization is a strong analysis and
  communication tool
• GIS provides a platform for the integration of
  other data

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• Environmental Outlook
• South Asia with a focus on India
• Urban population modeling
• Population Density Change (1960, 1998, 2010)
• Urbanization Risk (2025)
• Natural Disaster Vulnerabilities severe storm
  risk

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Population Density 1998
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1960 Population 424,391,200
1960 Population Density
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2010 Population 1,182,171,000
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Urbanization Risk 2025
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Quality Agricultural Land at Risk (2025)
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Major Storm Tracks Risk Areas
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Cyclone Vulnerability High 54.8 million Mod.
High 278.7 million Moderate 254.7 million
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Cyclone 5B
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Population Possibly
Impacted Dark Red Very High 2.6 million Red
High 2.5 million Orange
Mod. High 1.8 million Yellow Moderate
10 million
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• Summary
• Digital Earth will introduce new ways for
  researchers to
• assess interactions of humans and nature.
• Land use change dynamics such as urbanization
  can
• be readily captured by satellite remote
  sensing.
• Subnational (disaggregated) population models
  assist
• analysis of risk due to land use change, or
  natural hazards.
• Cartographic modeling is of value to visualize
  change
• dynamics and explore implications.
• Data are becoming more complete, precise and
  accurate.
• Trends and alternative scenarios can be modeled
  as well
• as assist in their evaluation.
• Built up spatial information systems can be
  used to examine
• what if scenarios conduct rapid assessment
  of real events.