Diapositive 1

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Implications of Biofuels for Nutrient Cycling
in Agriculture
Luc M. Maene and Patrick Heffer International
Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA)
SCOPE Biofuels Rapid Assessment Project
Workshop 22-25 September 2008, Gummersbach ,
Germany
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Contents

• Evolution of Biofuel Production
• Wastes and Co-products Generated during Biofuel
  Production
• Impact of Biofuels on World Fertilizer
  Consumption
• Implications of Biofuels for Nutrient Cycling
• Outlook
• Conclusion

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Evolution of Biofuel Production
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Evolution of Global Biofuel Production (billion
gallons)
2007 world output 18.7 Bgal according to FAPRI
Source IEA and F.O. Licht, in W. Coyle
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Biofuel Production by Country in 2007
Source F.O. Licht, in W. Coyle
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Ethanol ProductionGlobal Feedstocks (2006)
Tubers, mostly cassava
Sugar crops, mostly sugar cane
Cereals, mostly maize
Source IFA Biofuels Report, PotashCorp
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Biofuels Where Are We Going?

• 2007 world output 19 billion gallons (Bg)
• Ethanol 16.3 Bg
• Biodiesel 2.4 Bg
• Very ambitious targets
• USA 9 Bg in 2008 ? 24 Bg by 2017
• EU 10 in vehicle fuels by 2020
• Brazil / Argentina biodiesel targets
• Realistic mandates?
• Enough land and water available?
• Environmental impact?
• Food and nutrition security impact?

A pause in biofuel expansion is likely
Mandates might be revised downward
Sources FAPRI, USDA, EC
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US Biofuel Outlook
Total RFS
RFS ethanol derived from com starch
Source USDA
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Global Biofuel Outlook
These projections do not take new US and EU
mandates into account
World Ethanol Output (Bg)
World Biodiesel Output (Bg)
Source FAPRI
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Wastes and Co-products Generated during Biofuel
Production
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Relative Evolution of World Maize Uses
Base 100
172 Mt
485 Mt
85 Mt
Source IGC
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Products Resulting from the Wet and Dry Milling
of Maize
Source F.O. Licht
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Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)

• Result of a combination of coarse grains and
  solubles generated during ethanol production from
  maize (dry milling)
• In the USA, 75-80 of distillers grains is sold
  to local livestock producers as DDGS
• DDGS has higher protein content than maize grain
  (starch removed)
• Can be included in feed up to
• 30 for cattle
• 10-15 for poultry and swine

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US Consumption of DDGS
Biofuel Co-product Use

• 20 Mt of maize co-products are used as animal
  feed in the USA (i.e. 9 of the US feed volume)
  vs. 150 Mt maize and 30 Mt soybean
• Rapeseed conversion to diester generates 40
  oilseed cake. Glycerine is another marketable
  co-product

Poultry
Swine
Ruminants
Source Feedstuffs
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The First Commercial-Scale Closed Loop Refinery,
Mead, Nebraska, USA
www.e3biofuels.com
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Ethanol from Sugar Cane

• Co-products/wastes generated during cane-based
  ethanol production in Brazil
• Filter cake 12 kg/t sugar cane
• Vinasse 10-15 litres per litre of ethanol
• Bagasse 300 kg/t sugar cane burnt to supply
  energy to sugar mills and bioethanol plants
• Trash 4Mha are currently burned before
  harvesting progressive conversion to mechanical
  harvest
• Vinasse, filter cake and ashes are largely
  returned to the field as nutrient sources

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Impact of Biofuels onWorld Fertilizer Consumption
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Fertilizer Applications to Main Feedstocks in
2006/07

• Assumptions
• 50 of Brazilian cane converted to ethanol
• 30 of US maize converted to ethanol
• 10-15 of EU rapeseed converted to biodiesel
• Similar application rates by crop for food, feed
  and biofuel uses

Source IFA
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Estimates of Global Fertilizer Use on Biofuel
Crops in 2007/08 (Mt nutrients)
Source IFA
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Impact of Biofuel Production on Fertilizer Demand

• Impact on nutrient requirements (larger
  cultivated area, more fertilizer-intensive crops,
  higher yields)
• Changes in nutrient flows through recycling of
  wastes (vinasse) and co-products (DDGS, oilseed
  meals)
• Strong impact on prices of feedstock (maize, oil
  crops, sugar crops) and other crops through
  competition for land
• Higher crop prices ? Higher fertilizer
  application rates

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Implications of Biofuelsfor Nutrient Cycling
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Where Do Nutrients End Up ?

• Ethanol and biodiesel do not contain N, P and K
• In biofuel production processes, N, P and K end
  up in wastes and co-products
• With maize-based ethanol and rapeseed-based
  biodiesel, most of the N, P and K is in
  distillers grains and oilseed meals, which serve
  as animal feed
• Part of the N, P and K in animal feed goes back
  to the soil through manure applications
• With cane-based ethanol, a large share of the N,
  P and K in the wastes is recycled directly to the
  soil

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Nutrient Content of DDGS
1 Conversion factor protein to N 0.16 (6.25 kg
protein contains 1 kg N)
Source US Grains Council
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Estimated Amount of Nutrients in Ethanol
Co-products Used as Animal Feed in the USA

• Assumptions
• 20 Mt of the maize co-products are used as
  animal feed in the USA
• The co-products are mostly DDGS

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Estimated Amount of Nutrients in Ethanol
Co-products Used as Animal Feed in the USA

• 1.2 Mt NPK from ethanol co-products are used
  as animal feed in the USA
• Equivalent to 15 of the fertilizer nutrients
  applied to US maize (7.9 Mt NPK)
• Equivalent to 16 of the N, 20 of the P and
  9 of the K applied to maize as fertilizers
• This amount will increase with ethanol production
  expansion
• Feed use efficiency and recycling through manure
  application should be improved to reduce nutrient
  losses

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Potential for Recycling Nutrientsin Ethanol
Co-products Production in Brazil

• Half of the sugar cane is used for ethanol
  production
• A large share of the nutrients contained in
  filter cake, vinasse, trash and ashes is
  already returned to the soil
• Substantial N losses are still due to cane
  burning and manual harvesting

Half of this amount comes from ethanol
production the other half from sugar production
Calculated from VII e VIII Seminarios de
Tecnologia Agronômica Copersucar
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Local vs. Trans-boundary Impacts

• US ethanol is mostly produced from domestic maize
• Impact mostly local through nutrient accumulation
  spots, relocation of feedlots next to ethanol
  plants
• Trans-boundary impact through smaller maize
  exports
• Brazilian ethanol is exclusively produced from
  domestic cane
• Mostly local impact limited due to good nutrient
  recycling
• EU biodiesel is mostly produced from domestic
  rapeseed
• Impact mostly trans-boundary through changes in
  vegetable oil and oilseed meal trade (likely less
  soybean meal and more palm oil imports in the
  medium term)

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Outlook
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Ligno-Cellulosic Ethanol

• Ligno-cellulosic materials (maize stover, cane,
  grass, forestry material) all export large
  amounts of K
• K supply/demand balance is very tight
• Process and management should allow for optimum
  recycling of K, otherwise large additional K
  fertilizer production capacities would be
  required

Source IFA World Fertilizer Use Manual
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Biodiesel Emerging Feedstocks

• Oil palm
• Attempts to produce biodiesel from palm oil in SE
  Asia, and to export feedstock to the EU
• Large K (and Mg) requirements ? recycling needed
• Soybean
• Development of biodiesel from soybean in the USA,
  Brazil and Argentina
• Will increase soybean acreage and soybean meal
  availability
• Jatropha
• Tolerant to drought, but productive only under
  favourable conditions ? will require appropriate
  nutrient supply

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Conclusion
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Conclusion

• Currently, potential for recycling
• US maize-based ethanol 1.2 Mt NPK from
  distillers grains (mostly N)
• Brazilian cane-based ethanol 0.5 Mt NPK from
  cane co-products (mostly K)
• EU rapeseed-based biodiesel smaller amounts
  (5.5 N and 0.8 P in rapeseed cakes)
• Amounts expected to rise quickly
• Use of ligno-cellulosic material and palm oil as
  feedstocks will require careful K management

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Contact for further information pheffer_at_fertilizer
.org
www.fertilizer.org